An Assessment of Coastal Development and Land Use Change Using the DPSIR Framework: Case Studies from the Eastern Cape,South Africa

Coastal areas are experiencing high levels of development, largely driven by a number of aesthetic and recreational factors, increased mobility, availability of disposable income for middle and upper income groups and the promise of job opportunities and improved economic well-being for lower income groups. As existing coastal urban nodes expand development “shifts” to less developed areas and places increasing pressure on the surrounding natural environment. This article considers the coastal zone of two municipalities in the Eastern Cape, South Africa, with similar environmental characteristics but disparate socioeconomic and governance histories. It identifies and integrates the drivers of development and land use change in the coastal zone of these municipalities by means of an adapted Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) Framework. Development and land use change are driven by a combination of social, economic, and legislative factors that need to be considered for future management and planning in this unique dynamic system.     

Exploring the Knowledge Dynamics Associated with Coastal Adaptation Planning

Scientific projections for climate change induced sea-level-rise highlight current and potential future consequences for low lying coastal areas. In response considerable attention has been directed toward the task of coastal adaptation planning. Experience to date indicates that adaptation planning is more complex and contested than anticipated. We argue that this is partly due to the constrained way adaptation planning is conceptualized, whereby limited attention is directed toward understanding coastal adaptation planning as a site of complex and contested knowledge dynamics. Consequently, we use a knowledge systems perspective to explore coastal adaptation planning in order to highlight some of the knowledge exchange dynamics involved. In doing so we draw on views expressed in semi-structured interviews with a diverse range of stakeholders with an interest in coastal management in Victoria, Australia. While the focus is on coastal adaptation planning in Victoria, the insights generated are intended to contribute to broadening the way in which adaptation is conceptualized.     

Spatial and Temporal Modeling of Beach Use: A Case Study of East Anglia,UK

As tourists are sensitive to weather conditions and changes to the environments they visit, it is likely that climate change will affect coastal recreation in the future. To understand these impacts, it is first important to quantify how visitor numbers are associated with beach characteristics and weather patterns. Using the East Anglian coastline, UK, as a case study, information on the spatial distribution of visitors recorded from aircraft flights is combined with beach characteristic data in a Geographical Information System. In addition, surveys are undertaken at two beaches to assess temporal variations in visitation. The study finds a diverse range of characteristics are associated with visitor numbers. These findings are evaluated alongside the anticipated effects of climate change and management policies. Although it is predicted that warmer weather will increase visitor numbers overall, sea-level rise may reduce numbers at wide sandy beaches, which are currently most preferred by tourists.     

三峡成库初期长江万州—涪陵河段航道变化研究

利用一维数学模型计算万州至涪陵河段通航水流条件(水深、流速、比降),并对各蓄水阶段通航水流条件变化情况进行对比分析。研究结果表明:万州至涪陵河段航道均不同程度的受到蓄水影响,并相应产生一定变化,有利有弊。蓄水期水位抬高,流速减缓,对航道有利但也造成部分滩险的泥沙淤积。     

长江口南港近年河势变化分析及对策研究*

通过对物理模型试验和现场观测数据的分析,研究南港近年河势变化的原因、趋势、不利影响以及应对措施.研究表明:1)由于大规模水利工程的建设,南港河势正在发生一种显著的适应性调整;2)在未采取其它工程措施的条件下,南港目前河势变化造成的不利影响将长期存在;3)在瑞丰沙上实施合适的人工工程,能遏制甚至扭转目前南港河势变化所带来的不利影响.     

Leveraging socio-ecological resilience theory to build climate resilience in transport infrastructure

ABSTRACT

Anthropogenic climate change poses risks to transport infrastructure that include disrupted operations, reduced lifespan and increased reconstruction and maintenance costs. Efforts to decrease the vulnerability of transport networks have been largely limited to understanding projected risks through governance and administrative efforts. Where physical adaptation measures have been implemented, these have typically aligned with a traditional “engineering resilience” approach of increasing the strength and rigidity of assets to withstand the impacts of climate change and maintain a stable operating state. Such systems have limited agility and are susceptible to failure from “surprise events”. Addressing these limitations, this paper considers an alternate approach to resilience, inspired by natural ecosystems that sense conditions in real-time, embrace multi-functionality and evolve in response to changing environmental conditions. Such systems embrace and thrive on unpredictability and instability. This paper synthesises key literature in climate adaptation and socio-ecological resilience theory to propose a shift in paradigm for transport infrastructure design, construction and operation, towards engineered systems that can transform, evolve and internally manage vulnerability. The authors discuss the opportunity for biomimicry (innovation inspired by nature) as an enabling discipline for supporting resilient and regenerative infrastructure, introducing three potential tools and frameworks. The authors conclude the importance of leveraging socio-ecological resilience theory, building on the achievements in engineering resilience over the past century. These findings have immediate practical applications in redefining resilience approaches for new transport infrastructure projects and transport infrastructure renewal.     

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基于TEI@I理论框架,本文提出了适用于港口物流货运复杂系统的TEI@I的综合集成预测模型,并基于青岛港集装箱吞吐量数据,预测和分析了TEI@I的港口物流货运量的集成预测理论框架的各部分.预测结果表明,基于TEI@I集成预测模型的效果远远优于单独模型的预测结果,方向变化统计量(Dstat)的评价结果从66%-77%提高到了100%,对主要决策者方向性的判断更有实际意义.其次,TEI@I方法论中将数据“先分解后集成”的思想,引入了对数据的非线性部分的分析和预测,该方法不仅提供了分析外部冲击对具体数据序列的影响程度,影响周期的分析思路,而且将分析后的序列集成,对不同模型的预测精度有了很大的提高.     

汽车驾驶员模型的研究现状及发展趋势

汽车驾驶员模型是汽车交通安全、智能交通系统、汽车自动驾驶和车辆巡航等技术的基础研究内容和关键环节之一。按照汽车驾驶员模型的研究方向及应用,将驾驶员模型分为基于人—车—环境闭环系统汽车操纵稳定性的驾驶员模型、基于智能交通系统的驾驶员行为模型和基于交通安全的驾驶员疲劳模型等类型,综述了上述各类汽车驾驶员模型的研究现状,对各类驾驶员模型存在的不足进行了分析论述,并展望了汽车驾驶员模型的发展方向及趋势。     

强化学习型匝道控制模型的研究

高速公路上的交通堵塞造成了道路利用效率低下,并伴随着能源消耗和环境污染问题,因此各种各样的高速公路控制方法应用于缓解交通堵塞。本文提出强化学习型匝道控制模型,该模型以交通流模拟为预测工具,以人工智能的强化学习为最优化选择模型,并具有一定的自主性、有记忆功能和性能反馈功能,且是一种动态的过程。应用JAVA针对不同的交通状态进行模拟再现,模拟结果表明匝道控制模型对于减少交通堵塞具有显著的效果。     

高速公路建设中的工程变更分析

通过分析高速公路建设中产生工程变更的主要原因以及工程变更对整个建设项目工程造价的影响．提出减少工程变更的措施以及变更工程的造价管理方法,可供同行参考。