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在城市轨道交通的线路网络形成、实行一票换乘并伴随投资主体多元化时,需要建立公平公正的票务清分机制,本文提出一个基于乘客旅行实际时间分布计算各路径上乘客比例的新方法.根据交通卡中的进出站的时间记录,计算出在一段时间内在一对出入站之间完成旅行的所有乘客的时间分布,以这个分布为依据计算在这段时间里各路径上的乘客比例.采用数值模拟的方法在一对有两条有效路径的出入站间产生乘客旅行时间的数据,然后根据这些数据进行客流比例计算.结果表明,即使两条路径的运营时间差异很小也能实现较准确的比例划分,这种动态计算客流分布的方法能更准确地反映实际客流分布.     

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发车间隔的确定是建立行车计划的基础,合理安排公交运营方案可以在优化公交企业运营成本的同时,有效满足乘客需求. 本文提出了在保证公交运营服务水平和所需运营车辆最少的前提下, 确定公交发车间隔的模型. 在现有的模型基础上考虑了道路交通拥堵对公交运行的影响. 引入拥堵系数,建立了基于载客里程的公交发车频率模型. 实例分析表明模型使得发车间隔的计算更简单直观. 拥堵因子的引入对发车间隔产生了较大的影响,且能有效地优化公交发车间隔. 使公交企业更好地平衡了乘客满意度与公交车运行成本.     

Modeling Correlation of Family Holiday Activities Based on Structural Equation Model

Previous researches in activities-decision have more in-depth study in context of individuals, while less work has been done within household activity decisions. The structural equation model is applied to analyze the relationship of three household activity categories on holiday using data from 2009 Jinan travel survey. Six attributes were first chosen as exogenous variables for the structural equation model. Meanwhile, six activity characteristic indexes were selected as endogenous variables including activity duration time and activity times in three kinds of activity, hereby Subsistence activity, maintenance activity and discretionary activity. respectively. Then, the paper attempted to discuss the correlation of all types of activities behavior through analyzing not only the influence of household economics and family members factors on activity but the correlation of holiday activities. The research shows that complex relationships among composition of the family, economic status, and activities-decision can be captured by the structural equation model structure. Specifically, the results show that flexibility of three categories activities will affect the activities of decision-making.     

Conjoint Analysis Based Transit Service Quality Research

Transit quality service is an important factor that affects the bus split rate. This paper studies the passenger's preference of the bus service with the conjoint analysis. Through the actual survey and data analysis, the utility values of the reliability, frequency, walking time, etc. are measured. And the attributes' weights are determined through the utility values. The results show that the bus reliability is passengers' first concern, which is followed by in-bus environment, walking time and frequency. And the station environment and the price weight low. Then the bus service quality in Nanjing was investigated based on the attributes. The results show that passengers' evaluations about reliability, in-bus environment and frequency in the peak period are much lower than that in the non-peak period. And their evaluation on reliability is very low. The peak period in-bus environment and frequency also get bad evaluation.     

Urban Traffic State Estimation Considering Resident Travel Characteristics and Road Network Capacity

Urban traffic state is usually measured by vehicle average travel speed. It reflects the resident travel behavior on urban road network, and changes with the actual matching status of traffic demand and supply. In this paper, the traffic supply is estimated by the ideal carrying capacity, and the traffic demand is evaluated by vehicle traffic intensity considering resident travel characteristics. In this way, the network carrying capacity and traffic intensity are compared by equative unit. By introducing the intensity/capacity ratio, the matching degree between traffic demand and supply is determined, and the traffic state is identified based on average vehicle speed. In the last section, the 2005 field data of Beijing city is used to test and verify the proposed method.     

水轮发电机组轴系松动-碰摩耦合故障的动态响应

为研究非线性因素引起水轮发电机组轴承松动和转子碰摩故障,考虑定子与基础间的连接刚度和阻尼,建立了轴承松动与转子碰摩耦合故障下,具有6自由度的水轮发电机组轴系动力学模型.通过分岔图、Poincaré映射图和幅值谱图,分析了机组轴系随转频比和转子质量偏心变化的非线性动态响应.研究表明:机组转子和松动轴承有周期1运动、周期3运动及复杂的拟周期运动;在1/3倍频处存在幅值较大的低频谐波分量;随着转子质量偏心的增大,转子与定子间发生碰摩的区域不断增大,其动力学响应趋于复杂.     

基于合理路径的拥挤路网交通状态分析方法

为防止路网交通拥堵的扩散,考虑路段状态指标饱和度和行程时间的影响,建立了基于合理路径集的路网分析模型.将非拥挤区域从内到外分为控制层、诱导控制层、诱导层和无关层4个层次,反映了路网状态的空间分布和潜在演化趋势.基于交通分配得到的流量,对本文的状态分析模型进行了数值验证,仿真结果表明:各层次路段在路网中的比例随流量的增大而变化,且拥堵区域呈现扩张趋势;高峰时段各层次路段的比例为20%、5%、10%、10%和56%;同层次中饱和度越大的路段对拥堵区域的影响越大.     

三塔悬索桥静动力特性与中塔选型

为探讨三塔悬索桥与两塔悬索桥静动力特性差异与中塔选型,以泰州长江大桥为原型,基于有限位移理论建立相应的两塔、三塔（混凝土中塔与钢中塔）悬索桥的空间有限元模型,分析了各种结构参数下的静力和地震效应。研究结果表明：与两塔悬索桥相比,由于中塔顶缺乏边缆的有效纵向约束,三塔悬索桥整体刚度较小,变形较大,自振频率低;汽车作用下主...     

高速公路立交入口区域行车风险评价模型

分析了高速公路立交入口区域车辆行车特征,提出了碰撞危险指数概念,考虑了碰撞可能性系数、碰撞车辆速度差、目标车道跟驰车辆在碰撞时的速度、加速度、前后车辆间距5个因素,将入口区域车辆可能发生的碰撞行为分为5种情形,研究了5种情形的发生条件,建立了相应的风险评价模型。针对不同的主线车辆运行车速、车头间距和匝道驶入车辆运行车速...