Expirable parking reservations for managing morning commute with parking space constraints

When total parking supply in an urban downtown area is insufficient, morning commuters would choose their departure times not only to trade off bottleneck congestion and schedule delays, but also to secure a parking space. Recent studies found that an appropriate combination of reserved and unreserved parking spaces can spread the departures of those morning commuters and hence reduce their total travel cost. To further mitigate both traffic congestion and social cost from competition for parking, this study considers a parking reservation scheme with expiration times, where commuters with a parking reservation have to arrive at parking spaces for the reservation before a predetermined expiration time. We first show that if all parking reservations have the same expiration time, it is socially preferable to set the reservations to be non-expirable, i.e., without expiration time. However, if differentiated expiration times are properly designed, the total travel cost can be further reduced as compared with the reservation scheme without expiration time, since the peak will be further smoothed out. We explore socially desirable equilibrium flow patterns under the parking reservation scheme with differentiated expiration times. Finally, efficiencies of the reservation schemes are examined.     

混合下单模式下在线餐饮订单配送优化模型

针对在线餐饮订单量激增及订单到达非均匀分布导致的调度不合理与资源浪费等问题，提出顾客提前下单与动态实时下单相结合的下单模式，研究此模式下订单配送优化. 考虑在线餐饮订单配送优化具有的动态VRP和多回程VRP属性，以最小化配送成本为目标，建立带有软时间窗的整数规划模型. 设计基于插入算法和2-opt 邻域搜索的混合启发式算法求解模型. 通过算例，分析提前下单顾客比例、提前下单时长等因素的影响. 结果表明，单个因素的增加会降低配送成本，当两者同时增加，因系统达到饱和使配送成本不升反降，因此要调整措施使顾客下单情况与系统配送能力相适应.     

“多管齐下,方能解忧”——对改善城市交通环境的思索

结合时代特征,从当前城市交通矛盾的两个主要方面——交通需求和交通供给展开分析,以解决目前特大、大型城市交通拥堵问题。     

Influence of uneven rail irregularities on the dynamic response of the railway track using a three-dimensional model of the vehicle–track system

A mathematical model of the vehicle–track interaction is developed to investigate the coupled behaviour of vehicle–track system, in the presence of uneven irregularities at left/right rails. The railway vehicle is simplified as a 3D multi-rigid-body model, and the track is treated as the two parallel beams on a layered discrete support system. Besides the car-body, the bogies and the wheel sets, the sleepers are assumed to have roll degree of freedom, in order to simulate the in-plane rotation of the components. The wheel–rail interface is treated using a nonlinear Hertzian contact model, coupling the mathematical equations of the vehicle–track systems. The dynamic interaction of the entire system is numerically studied in time domain, employing Newmark's integration method. The track irregularity spectra of both the left/right rails are taken into account, as the inputs of dynamic excitations. The dynamic responses of the track system induced by such irregularities are obtained, particularly in terms of the vertical (bounce) and roll displacements. The numerical model of the present research is validated using several benchmark models reported in the literature, for both the smooth and unsmooth track conditions. Four sample profiles of the measured rail irregularities are considered as the case studies of excitation sources, examining their influences on the dynamic behaviour of the coupled system. The results of numerical simulations demonstrate that the motion of track system is significantly influenced by the presence of uneven irregularities in left/right rails. Dynamic response of the sleepers in the roll direction becomes more sensitive to the rail irregularities, as the unevenness severity of the parallel profiles (quantitative difference between left and right rail spectra) is increased. The severe geometric deformation of the track in the bounce–pitch–roll directions is mainly related to such profile unevenness (cross-level) in left/right rails.     

基于进化博弈的城市中心区交通拥堵收费分析

交通拥堵收费是解决道路拥堵问题的有效措施。假设使用小汽车到达拥挤收费区域边界的出行者可通过2种方式到达拥挤收费中心区：小汽车直达及停车换乘公共交通（P＆R）。对于出行者甲（对小汽车出行需求偏刚性）、乙（对小汽车出行需求偏弹性）,采用进化博弈的方法,建立效益矩阵,分析在不同政府定价条件下两者出行方式选择行为的演化模型。结果表明,政府交通拥堵收费对出行者出行方式选择行为的演化起着重要作用,不同的定价区间会使得出行方式向不同的稳定状态演变。分析各种定价区间下出行者出行方式选择行为。     

基于分形插值方法的城市轨道交通车站客流拟合与仿真

城市轨道交通车站客流量的变化具有复杂的非线性特点,通过对某些车站一天的客流量时间序列的分析,发现其客流量的变化具有自相似性,并且满足某种拟周期性。本文采用迭代函数系统模型描述城市轨道交通车站客流量的变化特征,用计算机自动求解该迭代函数系统的相关参数,在此基础上采用分形插值的方法模拟产生动态的客流。通过与实际客流调查数据的对比分析可以看出,该方法模拟产生的客流不仅与实际客流较好地吻合,而且能更好地描述客流的非线性特征。     

降雨量对OD 行程时间可靠性影响分析

为详细研究降雨量对OD行程时间可靠性的影响，基于Uber 出行共享的3 年美国波士顿10 对OD行程时间数据及WeatherUnderground 网站提供的小时历史天气，构建了OD行程时间高斯混合模型(GMM). 模型参数利用EM法进行求解，K 值根据K-S 检验后的P 值 (大于0.500 0)进行确定，模型分位数利用二分法进行求解. 提出一种基于缓冲指数(BI)的新指标——缓冲指数变化率(BIVR)作为定量评估指标. 结果表明：降雨会降低总体OD行程时间可靠性，降低效果随降雨量提高而增强，但增强效果并不明显；尽管可能性较低，但当降雨处于次要影响因素时可能提高可靠性；小雨天气可视为正常天气；雨天可靠性显著低于正常天气，居民在雨天(除小雨外)出行应预留更多时间.     

基于驾驶人特性的双车道跟驰模型稳定性分析

为了研究交通拥堵问题，了解交通拥挤形成的过程及驾驶员自身特性对双车道交通流稳定性的影响.本文基于复杂网络聚类同步理论，对一类基于驾驶员特性的双车道跟驰模型的稳定性进行研究. 通过设计适当的控制器使得基于驾驶人特性的双车道车辆跟驰模型趋于稳定，并得到了模型稳定性的条件.此外，在双车道上的车辆受到随机外部扰动的情形下，利用具有外部扰动的复杂网络自适应H∞ 聚类同步理论，研究了外部扰动情形下基于驾驶人特性的双车道车辆跟驰模型的稳定性.最后，采用MATLAB仿真技术进行数值模拟，验证所设计控制器对双车道交通流稳定性的影响及不同的驾驶员性格特性对交通流运行的影响.     

城市轨道交通高峰线路客流协同控制方法

在线路客流控制中，需同时考虑各个车站控流方案的可执行性与协同性. 采用 Fisher 最优分割法确定合理客流控制时段，基于此建立以乘客总等待时间最少和旅客周转量最大为目标的线路客流协同控制线性规划模型. 基于成都地铁2 号线AFC数据进行实验，针对协同控流与非协同控流方案，以及不同客流控制时段划分方案下的协同控流方案进行对比实验. 算例中：协同控流方案在旅客周转量下降约1.0%的情况下，乘客总等待时间减少约 56.7%；基于Fisher 最优分割法确定的时段划分方案中协同控流方案在乘客总等待时间方面最优，并具有很好的可执行性.     

杭州市交通状况及车联网市场前景的调研与分析

作为物联网在交通领域的应用,车联网可有效缓解当前的城市交通问题.为更好地把握车联网的市场前景,2012年底在杭州市开展了一次大规模随机抽样调查活动,在汽车4S店、二手车市场、高校、政府机关和企业内随机发放问卷共800份.根据对问卷结果的统计分析,绝大部分驾驶员对杭城交通状况十分不满意,造成交通问题的主因是车辆增长过快,大多数驾驶员对车联网应用及相关产品十分感兴趣,并愿意为之支付一定费用.由此可以推断车联网市场前景非常广阔.