基于偏好顺序集的非补偿式铁路旅客选择行为估计方法

精细化需求预测是铁路提高收益的重要基础.本文考虑了铁路产品属性对于旅客选择行为的影响,构建具有一定偏好顺序的产品集合来表征不同类型的旅客.在此基础上,利用客票存根及余票数据,建立预售期内旅客选择过程的极大似然函数,求解得到不同旅客类型的出现概率.首先通过仿真算例验证了模型的计算可行性,然后通过实证数据,估算了北京南至上海虹桥方向不同旅客类型在各时段的出现概率,进一步统计得到旅客在不同时段下铁路旅客buy-up行为概率及属性敏感度的变化,并提出一些可用于优化售票策略的建议.     

Experiment of boundedly rational route choice behavior and the model under satisficing rule

In this paper, we study the boundedly rational route choice behavior under the Simon’s satisficing rule. A laboratory experiment was carried out to verify the participants’ boundedly rational route choice behavior. By introducing the concept of aspiration level which is specific to each person, we develop a novel model of the problem in a parallel-link network and investigate the properties of the boundedly rational user equilibrium (BRUE) state. Conditions for ensuring the existence and uniqueness of the BRUE solution are derived. A solution method is proposed to find the unique BRUE state. Extensions to general networks are conducted. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the theoretical analyses.     

港口与运输方式及陆港联合选择的巢式Logit模型

为刻画托运人对港口、运输方式及陆港的联合选择行为,将港口费用、等待时间、班轮频率、货物价值、单次运量、运输成本、运输及通关时间、准班率、陆港服务作为效用变量,构建港口选择位于上层、运输方式及陆港选择位于下层的巢式Logit模型.基于辽宁部分城市集装箱托运人的RP/SP调查数据,对模型参数进行估计和检验.结果表明,低运量倾向选择公路运输,托运人对多式联运的运输成本、运输及通关时间比公路运输的更重视,对公路运输的准班率比多式联运的更重视,陆港服务对多式联运具有显著正向影响,巢式Logit模型比MNL模型具有更优的统计学特征.     

集装箱码头800M数字集群通信系统制式的选择

介绍了数字集群通信系统的特点,对数字集群系统两种制式作了比较。分析了集装箱码头对通信系统的要求和目前国内iDEN系统的运行状态。     

汕尾市新港大桥桥型方案比选

大跨度桥型方案比选。应在技术可行的前提下,对桥梁的经济性、美观性和创新性进行系统的分析、论证与比较,力争找到一个既能突出当地经济特色、人文思想及价值观念,又能表达现当代桥梁的技术水平及蕴涵未来桥梁的发展趋势的最佳方案。     

The effect of attitudes toward cars and public transportation on behavioral intention in commuting mode choice—A comparison across six Asian countries

This study investigated the contribution of psychological factors in explaining the choice of transportation mode in six Asian countries. Data were collected from 1118 respondents in Japan, Thailand, China, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines. The dependent variable was the intention to use one of three modes for work travel after getting a job: car, public transit, or other modes. The explanatory variables were three attitude factors taken from a previous study, including: 1/symbolic affective, reflecting affective motives of travel mode use; 2/instrumental, referring to functional attributes of travel modes; and 3/social orderliness which represents for environmental friendliness, safety, altruism, quietness et cetera. Several logit model estimates were made using the samples from the six countries separately and together. We obtained three main findings. First, attitude variables about the car were all significant determinants for the entire sample from Asian countries. Second, the social orderliness aspect of public transit was a common concern of respondents from developing countries in selecting this mode for work trips. Third, in countries in which the intent to use a car was not very high, attitude factors about the car were found to be significant determinants of the behavioral intention to commute by car but were less significant in countries in which the desire to use a car was high.     

Networking innovation in the European car industry: Does the Open Innovation model fit?

The demands of transportation have driven the automobile industry into an innovation race. Uncertain technological trends, long development cycles, highly capital-intensive product development, saturated markets, and environmental and safety regulations have subjected the sector to major transformations. The technological and organisational innovations related to these transformations necessitate research that can enhance our understanding of the characteristics of the new systems. The study investigates the applicability of the Open Innovation concept to a mature capital-intensive asset-based industry - the European automobile industry, which is preparing for a radical technological discontinuity. Purposely selected knowledgeable respondents were interviewed across seven European countries.The findings contribute to the understanding of the OI concept by identifying key obstacles to the wider adoption of the OI model in the European car industry, and signalling the importance of intermediaries and large incumbents for driving network development and OI practices as well as the need of new competencies to be developed by all players.     

Modelling parking choices considering user heterogeneity

We examine car driver’s behaviour when choosing a parking place; the alternatives available are free on-street parking, paid on-street parking and parking in an underground multi-storey car park. A mixed logit model, allowing for correlation between random taste parameters and estimated using stated choice data, is used to infer values of time, both when looking for a parking space and for accessing the final destination. Apart from the cost of parking, we found that vehicle age was a key variable when choosing where to park in Spain. We also found that the perception of the parking charge was fairly heterogeneous, depending both on the drivers’ income levels and whether or not they were local residents. Our results can be generalised for personalised policy making related with parking demand management.     

Trade-offs between mobility and equity maximization under environmental capacity constraints: A case study of an integrated multi-objective model

This paper investigates the performance of a policy decision tool proposed for multi-objective decision under different policy interventions. This tool deals with the trade-off between mobility and equity maximization under environmental capacity constraints. Two system objectives, maximization of mobility and equity, are formulated in terms of the sum of total car ownership and number of trips, and the differences in accessibility between zones. Environmental capacities are based on production efficiency theory in which the frontier emission under maximum system efficiency is taken as environmental capacity. To examine the performance of the proposed model, three types of hypothetical policies (network improvement, population increase and urban sprawl) are formulated. Effects are simulated using data pertaining to Dalian City, China. Results show that the proposed model is capable of representing the trade-offs between mobility and equity based on different policy interventions. Compared with two extreme cases with the single objective of mobility maximization or equity maximization, the Pareto-optimal solutions provide more interesting practical options for decision makers. Taking the solution based on the maximum equity as an example, the policy of urban sprawl yields the most significant improvement in both emission and accessibility of the three scenarios.     

Will a driving restriction policy reduce car trips?—The case study of Beijing,China

A driving restriction policy, as one of the control-and-command rationing measures, is a politically acceptable policy tool to address traffic congestion and air pollution in some countries and cities in the world. Beijing is the first city in China to implement this policy. A one-day-a-week driving restriction scheme was expected to take 20% of cars off the road every week day. Using household survey and travel diary data, we analyze the short-term effect of this driving restriction policy on individual travel mode choice. The data also allow us to identify which demographic groups are more likely to break the restriction rule. The estimates reveal that the restriction policy in Beijing does not have significant influence on individuals’ decisions to drive, as compared with the policy’s influence on public transit. The rule-breaking behavior is constant and pervasive. We found that 47.8% of the regulated car owners didn’t follow the restriction rules, and drove “illegally” to their destination places. On average, car owners who traveled during peak hours and/or for work trips, and whose destinations were farther away from the city center or subway stations, were more likely to break the driving restriction rules. Therefore, Beijing is probably in need of more comprehensive and palatable policy instruments (e.g., a combination of congestion tolls, parking fees, fuel taxes, and high-speed transit facilities) to effectively alleviate traffic congestion and air pollution.