交叉口行人过街心理及交通行为分析

行人与机动车的冲突是影响交叉口运行效率的重要因素。研究交叉口行人过街心理及行为的意义,分析行人过街过程及心理特征,总结行人过街等待时间、穿行速度特征、可接受间隙、违章行为及道路交通环境对行人心理和行为的影响,对行人的违章心理进行论述,并提出减少行人违章的措施。     

Deconstructing development density: Quality, quantity and price effects on household non-work travel

Smart growth and transit-oriented development proponents advocate increasing the density of new land development and infill redevelopment. This is partly in order to reduce auto use, by reducing distances between trip origins and destinations, creating a more enjoyable walking environment, slowing down road travel, and increasing the market for transit. But research investigating how development density influences household travel has typically been inadequate to account for this complex set of hypotheses: it has used theoretically unjustified measures, has not accounted for spatial scale very well, and has not investigated potentially important combinations of measures. Using data from a survey of metropolitan households in California, measures of development density corresponding to the main hypotheses about how density affects travel—activity density affecting distance traveled, network load density affecting the speed of auto travel, and built form density affecting the quality of walking—are tested as independent variables in models of auto trip speed and individual non-work travel. Residential network load density is highly negatively correlated with the speed of driving, and is also highly correlated with non-work travel, both singly and in combination with other measures. Activity density and built form density are not as significantly related, on their own. These results suggest that denser development will not influence travel very much unless road level-of-service standards and parking requirements are reduced or eliminated.     

Immigration, residential location, car ownership, and commuting behavior: a multivariate latent class analysis from California

Using latent class cluster analysis, this paper investigates the spatial, social, demographic, and economic determinants of immigrants’ joint distribution among travel time, mode choice, and departure time for work using the 2000 Census long form data. Through a latent tree structure analysis, age, residential location, immigration stage, gender, personal income, and race are found to be the primary determinants in the workplace commute decision-making process. By defining several relatively homogeneous population segments, the likelihood of falling into each segment is found to differ across age groups and geography, with different indicators affecting each group differentially. This analysis complements past studies that used regression models to investigate socio-demographic indicators and their impact on travel behavior in two distinct ways: (a) analysis is done by considering travel time, mode choice, and departure time for work simultaneously, and (b) heterogeneity in behavior is accounted for using methods that identify different groups of behavior and then their determinants. Conclusively the method here is richer than many other methods used to study the ethnically diverse population of California and shows the addition of geographic location and latent segment identification to greatly improve our understanding of specific behaviors. It also provides evidence that immigrants are as diverse as the non-immigrant population and transportation policies need to be defined accordingly.

基于单调关联系统的驾驶行为可靠度计算方法

为合理评估驾驶员驾驶行为的可靠性,提出了驾驶行为可靠度计算方法,将人机系统可靠性理论与驾驶行为链相结合,构建了基于感知、判断、操作元件及模块组的驾驶行为可靠性框图,确定了单项器官元件可靠度测试与计算方法,运用单调关联系统理论给出了功能模块可靠度及驾驶行为系统可靠度的量化模型,计算了模型中各生理、心理元件概率重要度,分析了其对驾驶行为的影响度。计算结果表明:事故组与非事故组间行为可靠性存在明显差异,非事故组的可靠性整体大于事故组,但整体可靠性呈下降趋势,事故组驾驶员整体操作稳定性较差;生理因素对驾驶行为可靠度影响度前期较大后期较小,而心理因素则相反。     

Travel Behavior Analysis of the Females in Beijing

In urban life, compared with the same age group of male contrast, the statistical indicators of female travel behavior show significant differences. According to the sample data of Beijing 2005 travel survey, the paper analyzes the female travel behavior in the travel rate, travel consumption, trip purpose, and travel mode. Furthermore, the paper introduces the concept of the trip chain, to construct a female morning commuter trip chain choice behavior model with noncollection theories and methods, to analyze 10 factors that influence a female individual's choice of a trip chain from the source. Subsequently, model parameters are estimated, to calculate the incidents that can help to quantitatively understand the impact of each factor on a female's choice of the trip chain. The results show that the travel rate of elderly women is far lower than that of elderly men. Female travel proportion in shopping and social activities is obviously higher than that of male travelers, and factors related to the structure of families create important constraints in their average travel time consumption. The main travel mode of the female is walking, which is far more than that of a male. Age, whether they hold licenses, monthly income, and transport ownership are dominant factors for the female's choice of the trip chain.     

Driver behavior formulation in intersection dilemma zones with phone use distraction via a logit-Bayesian network hybrid approach

Use of cellular phone while driving is one of the top contributing factors that induce traffic crashes, resulting in significant loss of life and property. A dilemma zone is a circumstance near signalized intersections where drivers hesitate when making decisions related to their driving behaviors. Therefore, the dilemma zone has been identified as an area with high crash potential. This article utilizes a logit-based Bayesian network (BN) hybrid approach to investigate drivers' decision patterns in a dilemma zone with phone use, based on experimental data from driving simulations from the National Advanced Driving Simulator (NADS). Using a logit regression model, five variables were found to be significant in predicting drivers' decisions in a dilemma zone with distractive phone tasks: older drivers (50–60 years old), yellow signal length, time to stop line, handheld phone tasks, and driver gender. The identified significant variables were then used to train a BN model to predict drivers' decisions at a dilemma zone and examine probabilistic impacts of these variables on drivers' decisions. The analysis results indicate that the trained BN model was effective in driver decision prediction and variable influence extraction. It was found that older drivers, a short yellow signal, a short time to stop line, nonhandheld phone tasks, and female drivers are factors that tend to result in drivers proceeding through intersections in a dilemma zone with phone use distraction. These research findings provide insight in understanding driver behavior patterns in a dilemma zone with distractive phone tasks.     

Factors with the greatest influence on drivers' judgment of roundabouts safety. An analysis based on web survey in Italy

The aim of this paper is to identify the roundabout geometric characteristics affecting the safety perception while the typical maneuvers (entry, circulation, exit) are being carried out. The tool used was an on-line questionnaire, filled out by about 1.650 respondents. Four different dimensionality reduction methods (Cluster Analysis, Correspondence Analysis, Exploratory Factor Analysis and Confirmatory Factor Analysis) were used to analyze the data collected from the survey, in order to examine the key factors affecting the safety perception during the typical roundabout maneuvers. The considerations arising from the final model are the following: 1) the respondents' opinions regarding the safety perception of maneuvers are not preconceived ideas, but they originate from specific safety perceptions due to roundabout geometric configurations; 2) the users prefer definitely single lane roundabouts; this is an important confirmation of most results in the literature; 3) it was quantified the extent of the relationship between the safety perception of the typical roundabout maneuvers and the following aspects: a) maneuver type, b) geometric characteristics of the roundabouts design elements. This is the innovative aspect of the present research whose results have implications regarding theory, infrastructure and the application of new safety technologies.     

新能源汽车购买行为及其环境影响效果研究

为了考量新能源汽车的推广使用对环境的具体影响,对新能源汽车的购买行为和普及率进 行了研究,同时分析新能源汽车在优惠政策条件下在实际路网中的环境影响。首先,对大连市居 民进行了意向问卷调查,建立描述家庭新能源汽车购买行为模型;其次,应用该模型对新能源汽 车在大连市的普及率进行分析;最后,在道路收费优惠政策条件下,考虑新能源汽车的普及率和 出行频率的变化,利用多用户交通平衡分配模型进行实例分析,探索新能源汽车在实际路网中的 排放影响。结果表明,在低普及率情况下,新能源汽车的减排效果并不明显,而在高普及率情况 下,减排效果比较显著。然而,对于交通领域巨大的碳排放体量而言,低普及率带来的碳排放量 下降的累积效应仍是非常可观的。     

锈蚀光圆钢筋混凝土受弯构件受力性能试验研究

进行了21根钢筋混凝土梁试件的试验,考察了钢筋锈蚀程度、钢筋直径等因素对配光圆钢筋混凝土梁力学性能的影响,分析了不同钢筋锈蚀率下混凝土梁破坏形态和承载能力的变化规律,讨论了钢筋-混凝土间黏结退化对构件承载性能的影响。试验结果表明:光圆钢筋的锈蚀致使钢筋截面积减小,拉伸强度降低,从而使锈蚀梁的承载能力下降;另一方面钢筋与混凝土之间的黏结退化也致使受弯结构的力学性能退化,但在钢筋达到屈服的条件下,钢筋与混凝土间黏结退化不是致使结构承载力降低的主要因素,对构件屈强比等性能也未产生显著影响。     

城市轻轨预应力混凝土轨道梁徐变性能试验研究

通过4根1：5城市轻轨预应力混凝土轨道梁模型的500d长期试验，对其时随性能进行较系统的研究与分析，重点考察混凝土种类、截面上下缘应力差等因素对轨道梁徐变变形、徐变应变、截面曲率、钢筋应力及预应力筋应变等的影响。基于龄期调整有效模量法，编制步进法时随有限元分析程序，实现轨道梁徐变变形的时随全过程分析。应用该程序对本文试验结果进行模拟分析，计算值与试验结果吻合良好。在试验研究、时随全过程分析及美国规范ACI 318-02的基础上，提出综合考虑混凝土种类、预应力筋张拉方式、钢筋配筋率及截面上下缘应力差的城市轻轨轨道梁徐变变形设计建议。研究成果为我国城市轻轨预应力混凝土轨道梁的工程设计与应用及有关规范的编制提供了依据和参考。