Quantification of motorway capacity variation: influence of day type specific variation and capacity drop

Many road authorities work with static values for road capacities, while it has been proven that capacity is not a fixed quantity. At the same time, there is an increasing need for accurate stochastic input for traffic models, such as the variation in road capacity. In this paper, a methodological framework with a conceptual model for practical stochastic capacity estimation is presented, and a quantification of motorway capacity variation is given for the influence of day‐type specific variations in capacity values. The results of the analysis show that there is a reduction in motorway breakdown capacity of 4% on weekend days in comparison with workdays. Furthermore, a capacity decrease of 8% was found for the discharge capacity in comparison with workdays. The analysis further shows that the breakdown capacity on holidays is not significantly lower than on workdays. Discharge capacity and capacity drops are also derived in each case. The results show that the capacity is significantly different depending on the type of day. A quantification of these differences is given in the form of a Weibull capacity estimation fit for each type‐of‐day scenario. Further consideration of the implications and applications of the framework is also given. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

水下远场爆炸下船舶结构响应计算有限元建模方式影响分析

利用有限元软件ABAQUS,针对船舶结构和设备采用不同建模方式,建立4种水下远场爆炸载荷作用下全船结构冲击响应计算的有限元模型,对比分析船体结构局部与总体冲击响应。结果表明:船舶骨材结构与设备的建模方式对结构局部冲击响应如加速度、应力等影响很大,而对结构的总体响应如剖面弯矩等刚性安装设备采用质量点均摊的方式处理以减小建模的工作量。对于大型的弹性安装设备,需采用质量点和弹簧单元仔细建模。     

城市高架桥对颗粒物扩散分布的影响

近年来,随着中国城市化进程的不断加快,城市高架的数量也与日俱增,但高架桥在缓解交通拥堵的同时也给城市道路空气污染扩散分布带来了新的影响。为了探讨这一新问题,采用实地监测和数值模拟相结合的方法,基于计算流体力学原理(CFD)建立RNG k-ε模型及离散相(DPM)模型,分析对称型街道峡谷内高架桥沿线交通颗粒物的扩散机制。研究结果表明：高架桥的存在会影响街道峡谷内的空气流场,导致桥面颗粒物向桥下地面沉积,造成地面颗粒物浓度增大;高架引桥沿线的交通状态对街谷内湍流动能的分布也有较大影响,进而改变了颗粒物的分布状态,通过模拟发现,车辆湍动能VIT的存在使颗粒物平均浓度相比于未考虑VIT时降低了3.77%,并且加重了高架桥的“盖子效应”,使高架桥面高度以下的颗粒物的平均浓度发生变化,迎风侧浓度增长11.46%~16.52%,而背风侧浓度下降2.82%~8.65%,高架桥源颗粒物在垂直方向上更加容易扩散;同时发现,高架引桥各位置处对应的街谷内颗粒物浓度要高于高架桥面高度处的颗粒物浓度。研究成果可为制定城市高架地区的交通污染控制对策提供理论参考。     

Instrumented city database analysts using multi-agents

The Instrumented City (iC) database is a multi-purpose, transport-related database facility for use by the entire academic transport research community. Data from the UK Leicester City Council and Nottinghamshire County Council Traffic Management Computers is logged and archived on a continuous basis, by the Leeds University’s Institute for Transport Studies. Since its inception in 1992, the iC database has been used for various real-time applications such as air quality and noise monitoring, modelling and forecasting. This paper describes the framework that demonstrates the feasibility of using multi-agents as information analysts to process and manage the iC database. The agents are adaptive, interactive and personal. They can be trained via the interactions with the users to be personalised for individual preferences. These agents are designed to be responsible for (1) data clean-up to remove outliers; (2) missing data substitutions; (3) statistical data analysis; (4) data mining to enhance the understanding of the relationships between traffic and air quality, noise and health; and (5) knowledge discovery by identifying unknown but potentially important patterns.     

Designing a decision support model for the LNG market

Abstract

As the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) market is supply-driven and subject to long-term contracts, both liquefaction companies and shipowners need to make strategic decisions on fleet chartering requirements. These planning decisions become ever more difficult in light of the transformations permeating the LNG market, propelling into a more competitive market with more flexible trades and expanding spot markets. The overcapacity of LNG ships during 2008–2009 triggered by massive overcontracting is a good case in point where the use of decision support models would have been beneficial, especially considering the fortunes and risks at stake. In this paper we present an LNG shipping model that effectively supports decision-making in practice. To demonstrate the value added of the model, we study the implications of LNG project delays and increased decommissioning of ships with respect to market balance and fleet requirements.     

Travel mode choice: affected by objective or subjective determinants?

This contribution presents theoretical considerations concerning the connections between life situation, lifestyle, choice of residential location and travel behaviour, as well as empirical results of structural equation models. The analyses are based on data resulting from a survey in seven study areas in the region of Cologne. The results indicate that lifestyles influence mode choice, although slightly, even when life situation is controlled for. The influence of life situation on mode choice exceeds the influence of lifestyle. The influence that lifestyle, and in part also life situation, has on mode choice is primarily mediated by specific location attitudes and location decisions that influence mode choice, respectively. Here objective spatial conditions as well as subjective location attitudes are important.

《交通微观仿真分析指南》概要

近年来,交通规划软件所使用的方法从对交通量的宏观分配转变为对单个车辆的微观仿真.这一方法论的改变意味着需要对委任交通工程项目、项目管理以及对其结果进行解释等的职能部门的指导方针进行更新,以便能反映微观仿真的独特能力.与之前的模型相比,微型仿真能够更完整和详细地反映道路交通状况的内在变化.位于苏格兰的SIAS交通规划咨询公司就此编写了《微观仿真最佳咨询项目指南》和《交通微观仿真分析指南》,以帮助交通从业人员从事微观仿真项目和解释其结果.这些指导方针是基于该公司进行项目咨询和开发S-Paramics微观仿真软件的经验基础上编写而成的.     

Improvement of the volume-delay function by incorporating the impact of trucks on traffic flow

In current transportation modelling, travel time is the most important factor in decisions regarding transport modes, destinations and routes. The calculation of travel time is deployed by volume-delay functions (VDFs), a sub-model of route assignment procedure, using the correlation between increasing numbers of vehicles on a road and the road's restrictive capacity. By investigating existing VDFs, a clear gap is seen, demonstrating that current functions are not suited to reflect the empirically known large impact of trucks on passenger car travel times. This issue becomes crucial when transport models are used to reflect future scenarios where goods transportation is expected to increase greatly, and when transport models combine passenger and commercial traffic. This paper presents a new VDF which successfully includes trucks’ impact on traffic flow in the case of Germany and, with slight deviations, for North America. The function is developed using ideal-type data for German motorways. The differences between German and US data and their implications for VDFs are also discussed.     

Assessing the financial and social costs of public transport in differing operating environments and with endogenous demand

This paper uses a previously developed spreadsheet cost model which simulates public transport modes operated on a 12-km route to analyse the total costs of different passenger demand levels. The previous cost model was a very powerful tool to estimate the social and operator costs for different public transport technologies. However, as the model is strategic, some basic assumptions were made which are relaxed in this paper. First, the speed-flow equation in the original spreadsheet model assumes that speed decreases according to the ratio of the current frequency and the lane capacity which is based on the safety headway without taking into account passenger boardings. However, this may vary in different operating environments. Therefore, the speed-flow equation is improved by moving from a linear equation to a piecewise equation that considers the features of different operating environments. Second, the model assumes that supply is sufficient to meet demand. However, when the level of demand is high for the lower-capacity public transport technologies, passengers may find the incoming vehicle full and therefore, they have to wait more than one service interval. This paper applies queuing theory to investigate the probability of having to wait longer than the expected service headways which will affect the average passenger waiting time. The extra waiting time for each passenger is calculated and applied in the spreadsheet cost model. Third, the original model assumed that demand was externally fixed (exogenous). To evaluate the differences after applying these equations, endogenous demand rather than exogenous demand will be investigated by using the elasticities for passenger waiting time and journey time.     

Computer simulation of impacts of a chlorine tanker truck accident

The aim of the study was to present the author’s original modelling programs of pollution dispersion in an urban environment. The programs outlined herein are based on a diagnostic model of air velocity field and Langrangian particle model. In both modelling programs author’s elements of mathematical modelling were applied. The models have been validated and verified. Geographic Information System (GIS) Idrisi Andes was applied in the pre-processing stage.The development of author’s original computer program and stages of hazardous material propagation modelling were discussed.The results of computations and analysis of pollution dispersion caused by a chlorine tanker truck collision and chlorine release into atmosphere were presented. It was simulated that the accident took place in the city of Bielsko-Biała, on a bypass in a built-up area causing leakage of 10 t of chlorine. The computer simulations conducted for two wind direction scenarios allow to conclude that the total area affected by the pollutant cloud with concentrations above threshold levels could be over 2 km², with 5000 lethally exposed people.