湖南省财政收入与经济增长的动态关系

利用协整理论对湖南省财政收入与经济增长进行了分析,并使用动态建模方法建立一个误差修正模型(ECM)对两者之间的关系进行拟合,以揭示它们之间的短期波动和长期均衡关系。     

Home-based telework in France: Characteristics,barriers and perspectives

The aim of this article is to explain the gap between high social expectations, particularly in terms of reducing commuting frequency, increasing productivity and improving work-life balance, and the reality of home-based telework. We use three French databases which give information about employers but also employees. We highlight that telework is not only a fairly restricted phenomenon but also one that lacks impetus; it is mainly an informal working arrangement. The main reasons raised by both employees and employers are the uncertain advantages coupled with immediate disadvantages. The conclusion examines different contextual factors that could alter this cost-benefits dilemma and foster the development of home-based telework.     

Commute duration and health: Empirical evidence from Brazil

There have been many empirical studies associating commuting time and health outcomes in the last few decades. Their general conclusion is that commuting and health are negatively related. The validity of their findings, however, is questionable, given their lack of good identification strategies to correctly account for omitted variables. In this paper, we analyze this relationship using a large and unique nationally representative sample of Brazilian individuals, coupled with the use of propensity score matching techniques, and the application of an exhaustive set of standard falsification tests and sensitivity analysis that may prevent one from claiming a causal link between the two variables. Our results indicate that individuals with more than one hour of commuting appear to have statistically higher probability, ranging from 1.9 to 4.6 percentage points, of reporting bad health status when compared to a person whose commuting time is less than one hour.     

An analytical mathematical method for calculation of the dynamic wheel–rail impact force caused by wheel flat

The simplified method to determine a vertical impact force of wheel with flat and rail interaction is presented in this article. The presented simplified method can be used to identify maximum contact force and its distribution in the contact length between the damaged wheel and the rail. The vertical impact force depends on geometrical parameters of the rail and wheel with flat, speed of vehicle and the angle of deviation of rail. This article demonstrates the influence of wheel with flat geometrical parameters, speed of vehicle to maximum contact force and its distribution in the contact zone. The obtained values of the simplified method for determination of a vertical contact force are compared with the results obtained from field measurements.     

Transport deregulation and cross‐border trucking in North America

Internationally, recent years have seen a spread of deregulatory policies with respect to transport. Equally, transport movements across national boundaries have expanded as trade has grown. Despite these two quite noticeable trends comparatively little has been written on the problems that are created for cross‐border traffic as the result of differential changes in national regulatory policies. This paper is concerned with looking specifically at what has happened in the context of road freight transport movements across the U.S.‐Canadian border and the wider (especially for the formulation of a Common Transport Policy for the EEC) lessons which can be learned from it.     

Description of a flexible and extendable physical–biogeochemical model system for the water column

A modelling system for coupled physical–biogeochemical simulations in the water column is presented here. The physical model component allows for a number of different statistical turbulence closure schemes, ranging from simple algebraic closures to two-equation turbulence models with algebraic second-moment closures. The biogeochemical module consists of models which are based on a number of state variables represented by their ensemble averaged concentrations. Specific biogeochemical models may range from simple NPZ (nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton) to complex ecosystem models. Recently developed modified Patankar solvers for ordinary differential equations allow for stable discretisations of the production and destruction terms guaranteeing conservative and non-negative solutions. The increased stability of these new solvers over explicit solvers is demonstrated for a plankton spring bloom simulation. The model system is applied to marine ecosystem dynamics the Northern North Sea and the Central Gotland Sea. Two different biogeochemical models are applied, a conservative nitrogen-based model to the North Sea, and a more complex model including an oxygen equation to the Baltic Sea, allowing for the reproduction of chemical processes under anoxic conditions. For both applications, earlier model results obtained with slightly different model setups could be basically reproduced. It became however clear that the choice for ecosystem model parameters such as maximum phytoplankton growth rates does strongly depend on the physical model parameters (such as turbulence closure models or external forcing).     

Winter problems on mountain passes – Implications for cost-benefit analysis

Cost-benefit analysis is a tool in government decision-making for determining the consequences of alternative uses of society’s scarce resources. Such a systematic process of comparing benefits and costs was adopted in early years for transportation projects and it has been the subject of much refining over the years. There are still some flaws, however, in the application of the method. In this article we have studied the impact of weather conditions on traffic speed on low traffic roads often exposed to adverse weather. This is an issue not currently considered in the cost-benefit analysis of road projects. By using two analytical approaches—structural equation modelling and classification and regression tree analysis—the impact of the weather indicators temperature, wind speed, and precipitation on traffic speed has been quantified. The data relates to three winter months on the European Route 6 road over the mountain pass Saltfjellet in Norway. Increase in wind speed, increase in precipitation and temperatures around freezing point all caused significant decrease in traffic speed in the case studied. If actions were taken to reduce the impact of adverse weather on traffic (e.g. by building a tunnel through the mountain) this study indicates that the road users would gain a total benefit of approximately 2,348,000 NOK (282,000 EUR) each winter at Saltfjellet if all the weather related benefits were included. We argue that this is a significant number that is highly relevant to include in CBAs. This applies both to the CBAs of new transportation projects as well as when resources are allocated for operation, maintenance, and monitoring of the existing transport systems. Including the weather related benefits would improve the application of CBA as a decision-making tool for policy makers.     

ANSYS的建模方法和网格划分

随着计算机硬件升级更新速度的不断加决,有限元技术得到空前的发展,越来越多地应用于各个领域。而ANSYS软件具有建模简单,快速,方便的特点,因而成为大型通用有限元软件的代表。对有限元作了一个总体的介绍,简要叙述了ANSYS软件的主要特点,着重介绍了ANSYS软件的建模方法,并结合自己的实践经验谈了ANSYS软件的网格划分技巧。     

Generating synthetic baseline populations from register data

The paper presents a population synthesiser based on the method of Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) algorithm developed for the new Danish national transport model system. The synthesiser is designed for large population matrices and allows target variables to be represented in several target constraints. As a result, constraints for the IPF are cross-linked, which makes it difficult to ensure consistency of targets in a forecast perspective. The paper proposes a new solution strategy to ensure internal consistency of the population targets in order to guarantee proper convergence of the IPF algorithm. The solution strategy consists in establishing a harmonisation process for the population targets, which combined with a linear programming approach, is applied to generate a consistent target representation. The model approach is implemented and tested on Danish administrative register data. A test on historical census data shows that a 2006 population could be predicted by a 1994 population with an overall percentage deviation of 5-6% given that targets were known. It is also indicated that the deviation is approximately a linear function of the length of the forecast period.     

Commuting times – The role of gender,children and part-time work

It has been widely established in the UK and other developed countries that men commute longer than women and that fathers travel furthest to work while mothers travel least. This paper models a wide variety of factors that affect commuting times including gender, presence of children and working hours (part- and full-time work). It finds that of particular importance to the length of commute are the worker’s age, having children, the age of their youngest child, occupation, weekly pay, and mode of transport (with public transport being associated with longer commutes). The region of residence was important for men and women working full-time but not for part timers (except for women in London), while ethnicity and owner occupation were associated with commuting length for full-time men only. The results suggest that while gender, working hours and childcare responsibility are often inter-related, it is useful to disaggregate their effects when modelling or developing policy.