Crossing the bridge: The effects of time-varying tolls on curbing congestion

This paper estimates the traffic volume and travel time effects of the road congestion pricing implemented on the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge. I employ both difference-in-differences and regression discontinuity approaches to analyze previously unexploited data for the two years spanning the price change and obtain causal estimates of the hourly average treatment effects of the policy. I find evidence of peak spreading in traffic volume and decreases in travel time during peak hours. I also find suggestive evidence of substitution to a nearby bridge and decreases in travel time variability. In addition, I calculate own- and cross-price elasticities.     

基于MPLS的拥塞控制策略

拥塞控制理论和算法是网络研究的重点问题之一。本文分析了传统网络的拥塞问题，提出了基于MPLS拥塞控制的网络业务QoS和性能保证的机制，并从网络吞吐量和缓存区利用率的提高对网络性能的改善进行了阐述。     

Impact of forcing errors in the CAMCAT oil spill forecasting system. A sensitivity study

The CAMCAT oil spill forecasting system is presented in this paper, and an evaluation of the impact of errors in the forcing fields over its forecasts is carried out. The system is formed by several independent modules which provide forecasts of winds, currents and waves to an oil spill module which predicts the evolution of the spill.The typical twin-experiments experience is used paying special attention to a realistic characterization of the errors when perturbing the forcing fields. The results suggest that errors in the wind and current fields are the main limiting factor for the quality of the oil spill forecasts. The pollutant identification is also crucial to determine the final vertical position and characteristics of the product.     

How do people respond to congestion mitigation policies? A multivariate probit model of the individual consideration of three travel-related strategy bundles

This study explores the relationships between adoption and consideration of three travel-related strategy bundles (travel maintaining/increasing, travel reducing, and major location/lifestyle change), linking them to a variety of explanatory variables. The data for this study are the responses to a fourteen-page survey returned by nearly 1,300 commuting workers living in three distinct San Francisco Bay area neighborhoods in May 1998. We first identified patterns of adoption and consideration among the bundles, using pairwise correlation tests. The test results indicate that those who have adopted coping strategies continue to seek for improvements across the spectrum of generalized cost, but perhaps most often repeating the consideration of a previously-adopted bundle. Furthermore, we developed a multivariate probit model for individuals’ simultaneous consideration of the three bundles. It is found that in addition to the previous adoption of the bundles, qualitative and quantitative Mobility-related variables, Travel Attitudes, Personality, Lifestyle, Travel Liking, and Sociodemographics significantly affect individual consideration of the strategy bundles. Overall, the results of this study give policy makers and planners insight into understanding the dynamic nature of individuals’ responses to travel-related strategies, as well as differences between the responses to congestion that are assumed by policy makers and those that are actually adopted by individuals.

考虑时变特性的海上溢油事故应急物资调度

针对海上溢油事故应急物资调度问题,本文考虑事故需求点受海上风浪影响而发生漂移的特点,分析需求点漂移对救援路径规划和环境损失的影响,构建以运输成本和环境损失最小为优化目标的数学模型,提出一种改进的遗传模拟退火混合算法。以蓬莱石油泄露事故的实际数据为背景,对模型进行实例验证和算例分析。结果显示：与不考虑需求点漂移获得的救援方案相比,本文方法在总航行距离上减少了9.11%、环境污染降低了41.17%,说明海上溢油应急救援调度问题中考虑需求点漂移的重要性;针对不同规模、不同需求点分布的算例,本文方法在算法优越性和求解稳定性上均体现出较为明显的优势,表明本文方法可以获得较优的调度方案,实现更准确高效的应急救援;通过灵敏度分析获知,提升船舶容量可以明显降低应急救援运输成本,且提升船舶航行速度可以更好地降低环境污染。     

拥挤收费的政治策略

通过收费缓解交通拥堵的政治可行性取决于谁获得通行费收入。指出如果收益被分配给城市,特别是高速公路经过的城市,拥挤收费取得政治成功的可能性最大。与已有的很多建议不同,指出城市是比个体驾驶人和区域政府更有力的收益申索人。基于行为经济学和政治科学理论并结合几个大都市区的数据,对提议进行解析和阐述。在洛杉矶,潜在的拥挤收费收入估计每年接近50亿美元,将这些收入分配至高速公路经过的城市对拥挤收费的实施是有政治影响力和促进作用的。     

韩国对“河北精神”号溢油事故的应急处理及其启示

文中介绍了“河北精神”号溢油事故的起因,分析了韩国所采取的应急措施,评估其有效性,提出我国处理类似应急事件的对策建议。     

三峡库区溢油快速预报模型在回水变动区的应用研究

三峡库区危险品码头数量和吞吐量逐年增加,危险品船舶流量逐渐增大,尤其是回水变动区,长年库区航段与自然航段交替出现,航道、水文、气候条件变化较大,水上交通安全风险隐患较多,发生溢油事故风险较高.文中通过基于环境流体动力学模型和溢油漂移扩散模型建立了三峡库区溢油快速预报模型,并利用该模型对几种假定情景下的三峡库区回水变动区典型水域长寿段内的溢油事故进行了模拟,并根据模拟结果提出了相应的控制策略.     

Case Study of Marine Ecological Compensation Criteria Based on Environmental Risk

This paper forecasted and identified the environmental risks and ecological effect caused by chemical spill by simulating the xylene spill in Xiamen waters. The evaluation objects of ecological damage include four parts: marine ecosystem services, sea water quality, marine biological resources (plankton, benthos, nekton, etc.), and beach habitat. The ecological compensation criterion was confirmed as 1.73 million Yuan per year in the short term and 8.09 million Yuan in the long term. And an ecological compensation mode was suggested to be that if the chemical spill does not occur this year, the compensation will return to the enterprise next year; while if chemical spill occurs, the compensation will not be returned. The encouragement mechanism "returning compensation if no spill" might motivate enterprises to improve the environmental risk management and avoid the risks.