Verifying liner Shipping Alliance’s stability by applying core theory

The core is a vital concept in cooperative game theory and has been widely used in analyzing alliance’s stability. It is especially interesting to apply core theory in liner shipping market due to the latter’s exceptional characteristic of non-homogeneous cost curves as well as divisible and fluctuant demand. Having observed some new phenomena and trends in the industry, this paper studies the economic performance and stability of liner shipping alliance by applying core theory where business cooperation is partly realized by delivering joint-service with mega container ships. To demonstrate the core situation in liner shipping alliance, a cost function is first identified on the basis of two assumptions regarding cooperation: 1) sharing or pooling vessels and 2) deploying mega container ships if needed. Taking cost functions as basis, two conditions of approaching core may be groomed, i.e., collective rationality and individual rationality. The first condition is discussed from the perspective of market, while the second condition is studied within the alliance. Stability of liner shipping alliance is then observed based on these two conditions. An illustrative case study is conducted in order to show some implications and explicitly clarify the theory.     

Cost overruns and demand shortfalls – Deception or selection?

A number of highly cited papers by Flyvbjerg and associates have shown that ex ante infrastructure appraisals tend to be overly optimistic. Ex post evaluations indicate a bias where investment costs are higher and benefits lower on average than predicted ex ante. These authors argue that the bias must be attributed to intentional misrepresentation by project developers. This paper shows that the bias may arise simply as a selection bias, without there being any bias at all in predictions ex ante, and that such a bias is bound to arise whenever ex ante predictions are related to the decisions whether to implement projects. Using a database of projects we present examples indicating that the selection bias may be substantial. The examples also indicate that benefit–cost ratios remain a useful selection criterion even when cost and benefits are highly uncertain, gainsaying the argument that such uncertainties render cost-benefit analyses useless.     

论述沥青混凝土路面施工质量管理与费用控制

结合工程实例,对完成工程的关键要素进行分析,介绍了沥青混凝土路面施工质量管理与费用控制的经验。     

装有EPAS系统的汽车转向灵敏度仿真分析

描述了电动助力转向器的构造及其工作原理,对EPAS系统模型进行了简化,建立了EPAS机械动力学方程,推导出了电流比例控制策略下汽车转向灵敏度的传递函数方程,并在Matlab中进行了仿真计算,定性地阐述了电动机转动惯量等参数在汽车转向盘角阶跃输入下对系统响应特性的影响。     

石方边坡控制爆破在公路路网工程中的运用

文章通过光面爆破与普通石方爆破的对比,总结石灰岩地区光面爆破各技术参数的选取和施工工艺的控制方法。     

公路环境景观敏感度的分析、计算及其应用

公路环境景观敏感度是公路周围环境景观被人们所注意到的程度的量度，公路作为一种人工带状结构物修建于自然环境之中后，便成为环境景观的有机组成部分。如何科学、客观地评价与公路相关的环境景观，是影响公路设计及路线方案比选的一个重要指标，也是环境景观设计的本依据。因此，根据相关领域的研究成果，对公路环境景观敏感度进行分析与计算。     

浅析公路工程方案优选与造价控制的关系

文章基于设计方案优选的原则,提出公路工程方案设计中应树立全寿命周期成本的理念,并进行多方案的技术经济比选,合理确定工程设计方案,平衡技术与经济的关系,以通过方案优选达到控制造价的目的。     

Public transit subsidies, output effect and total factor productivity

This paper extends previous works on total factor productivity decomposition when firms receive both operating and capital subsidies. It shows that previous works considered either the lump-sum or substitution effects of these subsidies but not together. Using constrained cost minimization as the framework it offers formal proofs to show that cost increases are inevitable if the total effects of the subsidies are considered, and that total factor productivity growth results from increasing amounts of subsidies under economies of scale and in the absence of technical change. Applications of the decomposition equations derived to a sample of transit systems finds near constant returns to scale and negative contributions of these subsidies to total factor productivity growth. Technical change reverses this decline and results in total factor productivity growth. Further, it finds that the lump-sum effects of the subsidies reduce total factor productivity more than does the substitution effect.     

大跨度斜拉桥施工控制的多元统计敏感性分析

为掌握大跨度斜拉桥结构参数变异对结构状态的影响规律，确保斜拉桥的施工安全和工程质量，针对该类型桥梁施工控制参数敏感性分析的实际需求，考虑不同结构参数和不同结构部位相同结构参数的变异性，实现了大跨度斜拉桥施工过程控制中的多元统计敏感性分析。从统计学角度明确了参数敏感性分析为边缘分布问题后，将试验设计方法引入统计多参数敏感性分析，结合参数显著性检验评价参数的敏感性。将同一批次或类似条件制造、施工的构件归为同一子结构，子结构内的相同参数视为一个随机变量，在减少随机变量个数的同时，提升了计算效率。采用分组试验设计降低均匀试验设计难度，在分组参数显著性检验后，将所有显著参数集成在一起进行整体参数显著性检验，最终确定目标结构响应的敏感参数。以某跨越长江的叠合/混合梁斜拉桥的施工控制为例，确定19个结构响应和63个结构参数，对其进行了多元统计敏感性分析。结果表明：斜拉索索力、桥面板重量和钢梁重量等结构参数对叠合主梁线形和内力影响显著；结构参数变异对主梁响应的影响不仅与参数变异大小有关，还与结构参数与响应截面的相对位置有关，一般来说，响应截面附近的子结构参数影响大于远离该截面子结构参数的影响。     

上海常见海塘达标方案及其对降低堤顶高程敏感性的研究

上海地处长江三角洲前缘,海塘分处长江口及杭州湾北岸。随着沿江沿海经济、社会和产业发展,加上全球气候变化、海平面上升等海塘前沿水情、工情发生了较大变化,原有的设计标准不能满足规划的要求。故上海市水务局启动了新一轮的海塘达标建设。现以浦东某段海塘工程达标为例,梳理了海塘达标的基本思路,总结了海塘达标建设中加高墙顶高程、保滩促淤削弱外海来波及坡面加糙等三项基本措施,并分析了其对降低堤顶高程的敏感性。其成果可为海塘达标设计提供参考。