Analysis of air traffic control operational impact on aircraft vertical profiles supported by machine learning

The Air Traffic Management system is under a paradigm shift led by NextGen and SESAR. The new trajectory-based Concept of Operations is supported by performance-based trajectory predictors as major enablers. Currently, the performance of ground-based trajectory predictors is affected by diverse factors such as weather, lack of integration of operational information or aircraft performance uncertainty.Trajectory predictors could be enhanced by learning from historical data. Nowadays, data from the Air Traffic Management system may be exploited to understand to what extent Air Traffic Control actions impact on the vertical profile of flight trajectories.This paper analyses the impact of diverse operational factors on the vertical profile of flight trajectories. Firstly, Multilevel Linear Models are adopted to conduct a prior identification of these factors. Then, the information is exploited by trajectory predictors, where two types are used: point-mass trajectory predictors enhanced by learning the thrust law depending on those factors; and trajectory predictors based on Artificial Neural Networks.Air Traffic Control vertical operational procedures do not constitute a main factor impacting on the vertical profile of flight trajectories, once the top of descent is established. Additionally, airspace flows and the flight level at the trajectory top of descent are relevant features to be considered when learning from historical data, enhancing the overall performance of the trajectory predictors for the descent phase.     

基于有限混合零截尾事故预测模型的事故多发段判别方法

为了准确判别事故多发段,有针对性地提出安全应对措施以提升道路交通的安全水平,针对零值缺失交通事故数据并考虑其异质性特点,在单零截尾负二项(ZTNB)模型的基础上建立有限混合零截尾事故预测模型(FMZTNB)。应用R软件对单零截尾负二项模型中的参数进行估计,采用马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛算法(MCMC)对FMZTNB预测模型参数进行求解,并采用Gelman-Rubin收敛统计量对抽样结果进行检查。选择事故风险水平分别为低、中和高的9个路段,分别用2种模型对交通事故次数进行预测。综合观测到的事故次数和相应的事故预测模型结果,采用经验贝叶斯方法对事故相对多发段进行判别。最后采用事故次数一致性检验、判别点段一致性检验和排序一致性检验3种检验方式对判别结果对比分析。结果表明:基于事故率的事故相对多发段判别方法存在较大的不一致性,基于零截尾负二项预测模型的路段事故相对多发判别结果明显优于基于传统负二项预测模型的结果。整体上,基于有限混合零截尾事故预测模型的事故相对多发路段的判别结果高于基于单零截尾负二项分布模型的判别结果。     

Calculation of VPP basing on functional analyzing method

VPP can be used to deter mine the maxi mumvelocities of a sailboard at various sailing-routes,byestablishing the forces and moments balance-equa-tions on the sail and board in accordance with theprinciple of the maxi mal drive-force.Selectingroute is the most i mportant issue in upwind-sailing,and VPP calculations could provide the basis for de-ter mining the opti mal routes.VPP calculation of the sailboard perfor mance isa complex and difficult research task,and there arefew projects in thi…     

基于攻击过程的入侵预警技术研究

入侵检测技术作为一种重要的网络安全技术,得到广泛应用和深入研究。为对入侵行为的未来趋势有效预测,以尽可能减小损失,探寻一种更为有效的入侵预警方法,成为信息安全领域的研究热点。从警报数据聚合处理的角度,提出了基于攻击过程的预警策略,并在详细介绍该算法的基础上,基于Linux系统,用C语言实现了该算法。     

基于满意优化的模糊多目标预测控制算法研究

提出了以满意优化取代传统的最优控制对模糊预测控制中的性能指标进行优化的方法。以模糊多目标单步预测模型为例，给出了系统对某一控制目标的满意优化控制算法，并在此基础上提出了基于满意优化的模糊多目标预测控制算法。     

基于虚拟仪器的大型旋转机组振动预测模型

为预测大型机组状态，建立了灰色预测模型．并研制了具有开放性和柔性的虚拟仪器平台下的预测系统，以适应不同用户和不同环境．该系统在LabVIEW平台下并结合VC 编程实现，在工业现场得到实际应用．在大型供水机组上应用结果表明：采用该技术可以预测机组趋势性故障13期、减少维修次数和维护费用．     

Experimental Investigation on Contribution of CFRP Attachment to Durability of Reinforced Concrete Structure Subjected to Chloride Attack

The function of externally-bonded carbon fiber reinforced polymer （CFRP） in preventing chloride from entering into concrete is verified by experiment. The results show that externally-bonded CFRP can be considered as a part of corrosion prevention system of strengthened concrete structures subjected to chloride ingress, and the contribution of CFRP should be considered in evaluation of durability of reinforced concrete structures with externally-bonded CFRP. With the effective shielding function of CFRP considered, an equation for residual lifetime prediction of concrete structures with externally-bonded CFRP is derived from Fick＇s dispersion law. CFRP has two functions for coastal concrete structures, including strengthening and increasing durability as part of corrosion prevention system.     

隧道施工超前地质预报方法综述

简述了各种超前地质预报方法的特点，提出在复杂地质条件下，运用多种方法进行综合预报，并以韩家岭隧道为例，说明综合预报的有效性。     

动载作用下柔性车体结构疲劳寿命的仿真

为准确预测随机动载作用下柔性车体结构的疲劳寿命，将多体动力学仿真和有限元分析相结合，建立了车体多体动力学模型．计算了35个关键部位的载荷历程，并用准静态应力分析法获得了对应的应力影响因子．用模态分析技术获得了车体结构固有频率和模态振型，用子结构技术获得了车体有限元缩减模型．根据危险应力分布、应力时间历程以及Palmgren-Miner损伤理论，利用疲劳分析软件FE-FATIGUE的基于应力的安全强度因子分析法和MATLAB的WAFO技术对柔性车体结构疲劳寿命仿真．仿真结果包括损伤和疲劳寿命预测．     

金鱼隧道涌水处治技术

绵茂公路一期工程金鱼隧道隧址区含水丰富,部分地段涌水,针对此情况,通过对隧址区水文地质进行调绘及对涌水原因的分析和涌水量的计算,制定了不同的处置方案,并进行比选,采用了安全性最好的拦排相结合的施工技术,最终成功解决了该隧道的涌水问题