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231.
ʵʱ��ͨ��Ϣ������Ԥ��ϵͳ�������ķ�չ�ſ� 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1
介绍了美国联邦公路局(FHWA)支持的动态交通分配(DTA)研究项目的发展概况。FHWA启动DTA项目的目标是研发一套可实际应用的实时交通信息估计与预测系统(TrEPS),其中提供的交通估计与预测信息可用于动态交通管理,以满足智能交通系统(ITS)的信息需要。讨论了DTA项目,ErEPS在FHWA的战略规划和美国国家ITS体系结构中的地位,ErEPS的用户,以及其研究、开发、实施概况;提出了在我国发展类似系统的一些建议,包括实现ErEPS原型的本地化、引入各向异性交通流模型及混合交通仿真法以改善TrEPS的性能等。 相似文献
232.
文中提出采用数据仓库技术搭建水上交通事故(事件)管理、分析信息平台,利用数据挖掘技术自动描述、寻找事故数据背后有价值的的模式和知识.实例给出1995~2000年期间长江水域的船舶事故(事件)历史数据库的构建,通过重特大恶性碰撞事故案例的数据挖掘,量化提取事故特征,并利用广义线性模型对船舶碰桥事故建立概率预测模型,为科学组织管理长江水上交通提供理论依据. 相似文献
233.
���������·������Ԥ�ⷽ���о� 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
赵长江 《交通运输系统工程与信息》2004,4(3):92-96
针对传统四阶段法不太适合长大铁路干线需求预测的实际,通过时四阶段需求预测方法及各种模型的改造,建立了一套适合我国铁路项目客运量预测的预测方法和程序.通过对京沪高速铁路的具体应用,论文就参数标定方法和应注意的问题提出了一些研究结论。 相似文献
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准确预报船体运动响应对于砰击等波浪载荷的计算以及合理结构设计具有重要意义。船舶在大幅波浪中的运动呈明显的非线性,而现阶段耐波性预报多采用线性切片方法。三维水动力分析软件 WASIM基于时域势流理论,采用 Rankine面元法预报船舶在波浪中的运动响应,并考虑了多种非线性因素。本文以标模 DTMB5512为对象,采用 WASIM预报其在不同航速下的耐波性,并与基于线性切片理论的计算结果和模型试验结果进行对比。结果表明:利用 WASIM计算得到的船体运动响应比其他方法更接近试验值,合理体现了船舶在风浪中的实际耐波性能。因此,利用 WASIM能够较好地评估船舶在波浪中的非线性耐波特性。 相似文献
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ABSTRACTThe purpose of maritime accident prediction is to reasonably forecast an accident occurring in the future. In determining the level of maritime traffic management safety, it is important to analyze development trends of existing traffic conditions. Common prediction methods for maritime accidents include regression analysis, grey system models (GM) and exponential smoothing. In this study, a brief introduction is provided that discusses the aforementioned prediction models, including the associated methods and characteristics of each analysis, which form the basis for an attempt to apply a residual error correction model designed to optimize the grey system model. Based on the results, in which the model is verified using two different types of maritime accident data (linear smooth type and random-fluctuation type, respectively), the prediction accuracy and the applicability were validated. A discussion is then presented on how to apply the Markov model as a way to optimize the grey system model. This method, which proved to be correct in terms of prediction accuracy and applicability, is explored through empirical analysis. Although the accuracy of the residual error correction model is usually higher than the accuracy of the original GM (1,1), the effect of the Markov correction model is not always superior to the original GM (1,1). In addition, the accuracy of the former model depends on the characteristics of the original data, the status partition and the determination method for the status transition matrix. 相似文献
239.
Traffic flow prediction is an essential part of intelligent transportation systems (ITS). Most of the previous traffic flow prediction work treated traffic flow as a time series process only, ignoring the spatial relationship from the upstream flows or the correlation with other traffic attributes like speed and density. In this paper, we utilize a linear conditional Gaussian (LCG) Bayesian network (BN) model to consider both spatial and temporal dimensions of traffic as well as speed information for short‐term traffic flow prediction. The LCG BN allows both continuous and discrete variables, which enables the consideration of categorical variables in traffic flow prediction. A microscopic traffic simulation dataset is used to test the performance of the proposed model compared to other popular approaches under different predicting time intervals. In addition, the authors investigate the importance of spatial data and speed data in flow prediction by comparing models with different levels of information. The results indicate that the prediction accuracy will increase significantly when both spatial data and speed data are included. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
240.
This paper proposes a novel short/medium-term prediction method for aviation emissions distribution in en route airspace. An en route traffic demand model characterizing both the dynamics and the fluctuation of the actual traffic demand is developed, based on which the variation and the uncertainty of the short/medium-term traffic growth are predicted. Building on the demand forecast the Boeing Fuel Flow Method 2 is applied to estimate the fuel consumption and the resulting aviation emissions in the en route airspace. Based on the traffic demand prediction and the en route emissions estimation, an aviation emissions prediction model is built, which can be used to forecast the generation of en route emissions with uncertainty limits. The developed method is applied to a real data set from Hefei Area Control Center for the en route emission prediction in the next 5 years, with time granularities of both months and years. To validate the uncertainty limits associated with the emission prediction, this paper also presents the prediction results based on future traffic demand derived from the regression model widely adopted by FAA and Eurocontrol. The analysis of the case study shows that the proposed method can characterize well the dynamics and the fluctuation of the en route emissions, thereby providing satisfactory prediction results with appropriate uncertainty limits. The prediction results show a gradual growth at an average annual rate of 7.74%, and the monthly prediction results reveal distinct fluctuation patterns in the growth. 相似文献