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171.
传统公路建设项目交通量预测方法往往从公路交通系统自身的角度出发,割裂了公路交通与其他运输方式之间的复杂关系,因而影响了预测结果的可靠性。本文从综合运输的角度出发,提出了基于综合运输网络的公路建设项目交通量预测方法,并对预测方法涉及的具体模型进行了讨论。应用该方法可以客观反映公路与其他运输方式之间的作用关系、准确描述交通量的转移规律、充分把握建设项目在综合运输网络中的作用和地位,使预测结果更加合理、有效。 相似文献
172.
三峡翻坝运输江南公路交通量预测思路探讨 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
三峡翻坝运输江南公路是三峡坝区水陆联运的主要公路通道,服务于三峡坝区各种长期、应急或临时性翻坝运输需求,同时也是项目沿线地区内部及对外出行的重要交通线路。因其在区域运输网中的独特地位,其未来服务功能具备典型的多样性特点,交通需求特征迥异于一般公路项目,采用传统的交通量预测方法很难把握其未来交通需求的增长规律和分布特点。在江南公路交通量预测过程中,引入了分类预测法,并创造性地构建了基于出行意向的交通量分担模型、基于土地开发利用的新增交通量预测模型等,在诸多方面都进行了有价值的探索。 相似文献
173.
分析不同指数平滑预测模型对供应链库存波动的影响,建立不同指数平滑预测模型的传递函数模型,通过对不同指数平滑预测模型分别在阶跃函数、斜坡函数、二次曲线函数等不同激励函数输入下输出响应的Matlab仿真,说明零阶指数平滑预测模型没有导致供应链库存波动,1阶、2阶指数平滑预测模型将导致供应链库存波动;通过噪声带宽分别衡量不同指数平滑预测模型引起供应链库存波动的程度,并且通过匹配滤波的方法可以减少不同预测模型引起供应链的波动性。 相似文献
174.
佛山市摩托车交通问题与解决方案研究 总被引:6,自引:3,他引:3
王振群 《交通运输系统工程与信息》2003,3(1):80-83
以大量翔实的数据说明了摩托车交通问题是制约佛山市交通可持续发展的主要原因之一。结合佛山市交通基础设施及车辆组成的现状,根据对未来10年的车辆构成的预测,有针对性地提出了解决佛山市摩托车交通的三步走方案,即:第一步,加强摩托车管理,采取疏导与初步限制策略;第二步,合理城市与交通管理等规划,大力发展公共交通;第三步,在一定时期内大力限制摩托车增长,并最终取缔。文中还给出了每一步方案实施过程中的关键问题,并介绍了其中一些方法的实际应用情况。 相似文献
175.
176.
Our daily driving experience and empirical observations suggest that traffic patterns in a road network are relatively stationary during peak periods. In numerous transportation network studies, there has been an implicit conjecture that stationary states exist in a network when origin demands, route choice proportions, and destination supplies are constant. In this study, we first rigorously formulate the conjecture within the framework of a network kinematic wave theory with an invariant junction model. After defining stationary states, we derive a system of algebraic equations in 3-tuples of stationary link flow-rates, demands, and supplies. We then introduce a new definition of junction critical demand levels based on effective demands and supplies. With a map in critical demand levels, we show that its fixed points and, therefore, stationary states exist with the help of Brouwer’s fixed point theorem. For two simple road networks, we show that the map is well-defined and can be used to solve stationary states with a brute-force method. Finally we summarize the study and present some future extensions and applications. 相似文献
177.
Nobuhiro Sanko 《运输规划与技术》2016,39(7):641-652
In travel demand forecasting models, parameters are often assumed to be stable over time. The stability of these parameters, however, has been questioned. This study investigates the factors affecting temporal changes in mode choice model parameters using a method proposed by the author that jointly utilises repeated cross-sectional data. In this method, the parameters are assumed to follow functional forms and the parameter changes are modelled endogenously. While the author’s previous studies assumed that all parameters are the same function of the same variable, this study assumes that different parameters are different functions of different variables, including time (year) and macro-economic variables. The paper describes a case study of a journey-to-work mode choice analysis for Nagoya, Japan, that examines 288 combinations of the functional forms and variables. The analysis found that the functions of time had serious over-fitting problems and that parameter changes are more closely related to economic factors. 相似文献
178.
Electric transit buses have been recognized as an important alternative to diesel buses with many environmental benefits. Electric buses employing lithium titanate batteries can provide uninterrupted transit service thanks to their ability of fast charging. However, fast charging may result in high demand charges which will increase the fuel costs thereby limiting the electric bus market penetration. In this paper, we simulated daily charging patterns and demand charges of a fleet of electric buses in Tallahassee, Florida and identified an optimal charging strategy to minimize demand charges. It was found that by using a charging threshold of 60–64%, a $160,848 total saving in electricity cost can be achieved for a five electric bus fleet, comparing to a charging threshold of 0–28%. In addition, the impact of fleet sizes on the fuel cost was investigated. Fleets of 4 and 12 buses will achieve the lowest cost per mile driven when one fast charger is installed. 相似文献
179.
Reintroducing attitude theory in travel behavior research: The validity of an interactive interview procedure to predict car use 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
A methodological challenge is to develop methods which satisfy the need in transport planning of accurately forecasting travel behavior. Drawing on a review of the current state of attitude theory, it is argued that successfully forecasting travel behavior relies on a distinction between planned, habitual, and impulsive travel. Empirical illustrations are provided in the form of stated-response data from two experiments investigating the validity of an interactive interview procedure to predict household car use for different types of trips, either before or after participants were required to reduce use. 相似文献
180.