Reliability analysis of ovalized deep-water pipelines with corrosion defects

The accurate assessment of the remaining strength of corroded pipes is a subject that has been increasingly investigated over the past decades. This is because of the risk of significant social, economic, and environmental effects that may be caused by an accident. The finite element method has been successfully used to predict the collapse pressure considering external load. It was also used in this study. The literature primarily focused on the corroded pipes subjected to internal pressure. In this study, the out-of-roundness (ovalization) of the pipe was considered to evaluate the collapse pressure. Uncertainties should be incorporated into a computational model to assess the reliability of corroded pipes. Three methods for evaluation of the probability of failure were used: the first-order reliability method (FORM), traditional Monte Carlo (MC), and a new proposed methodology that combines MC results with the kernel density estimation method (MCkde). The probability of failure of ovalized corroded pipes subject to external pressure was computed. The results exhibited a good agreement between FORM and MCkde method. The statistical importance of each random variable was observed and the results were compared with those from intact ovalized pipes. The computation cost of the MC method with numerical simulation limits its use to the application under study. Solutions using the FORM and MCkde methods exhibited good agreement with those of the full MC method. However, the computational effort of the latter was independent of the stochastic dimension, and it was a derivative-free method. As expected, in general, the solutions based on empirical methods were conservative.     

Car sharing in Norwegian urban areas: Examining interest,intention and the decision to enrol

This article’s objective is to investigate the effects of sociodemographic and residential built environments, directly and indirectly through personality traits, attitudes and car ownership, on willingness to use car sharing in the case of Norway. This is done by examining multiple dimensions of the adoption process: the stated general interest and intention to participate in car sharing among non-members, as well as the decision to enrol as a car sharing user by comparing members to non-members. In this study, we analyse web survey data from 2414 residents from urban areas in Norway, using three structural equation models. Our findings indicate that the adoption of car sharing is complexly related to car ownership, with a noteworthy discrepancy indicating greater car sharing interest, but lower car sharing membership rates among car owners. We also find that environmental concerns exert a clear positive effect on all three dimensions of the adoption process. Being careful with money is linked negatively to interest and intention to participate, while being sociable and agreeable exerts no effect. Car sharers’ sociodemographic profiles are typically that of early adopters, but many of the effects, especially on interest, are mediated by car ownership, environmental consciousness and/or being careful with money, rather than directly on the sociodemographic profiles. Finally, we find car sharing to be more prominent in denser areas, but we did not discover a clear connection with access to public transport.     

A literature review of mobility services: definitions,modelling state-of-the-art,and key considerations for a conceptual modelling framework

ABSTRACT

This paper presents a comprehensive literature review focused on the supply side of mobility services, providing relevant insights at the conceptual, operational, and modelling levels. Definitions are first drawn from the Mobility as a Service paradigm due to its predominance in the literature. This is followed by an assessment of the operational features of a range of mobility services, including carsharing, bikesharing, ridehailing, and demand responsive transit. To conclude the review, the state-of-the-art in modelling approaches for mobility services is reported, at different levels of complexity and integration. Three of the most important findings and arguments from this paper suggest that a high degree of generality exists for operational features of mobility services; that it is essential to make a distinction between Mobility as a Service and a mobility service in isolation; along with the argument that human agency should be carefully considered in modelling efforts, both for user agent and driver agent decision-making processes. Finally, key considerations are proposed for the future development of a conceptual framework for modelling the supply side of mobility services, which would have a generic service provider model as its core component.     

Estimating origin‐destination matrices from link volume counts: a simple intercity auto travel demand model for Sri Lanka

The cost of nation wide travel surveys is high. Hence in many developing countries, planners have found it difficult to develop intercity transportation plans due to the non availability of origin‐destination trip matrices. This paper will describe a method for the intercity auto travel estimation for Sri Lanka with link traffic volume data.

The paper outlines the rationale of selecting the district capitals of Sri Lanka as its “cities,” the methodology for selecting the intercity road network, determination of link travel times from express bus schedules and the location of link volume counting positions.

Initially, the total auto travel demand model is formulated with various trip purpose sub‐models. This model is finally modified to a simple demand model with district urban population and travel times between city pairs as the exogenous variables, to overcome statistical estimation difficulties. The final demand model has statistics within the acceptable regions.

The advantages of a simple model are discussed and possible extensions are proposed.     

基于需求响应的铁路集装箱班列始发时刻优化

依据铁路运输生产实际,充分考虑集装箱货物与集装箱班列在时间和数量方面的匹配关系,以集装箱货物在集装箱办理站的总停留时间最小为优化目标,以集装箱货物装车唯一性、班列编成箱数、作业时间和发车间隔为约束条件,构建铁路集装箱班列始发时刻优化的非线性混合整数规划模型。根据模型的特点,设计基于遗传算法的求解方法。由随机产生和"先到先服务"方案结合的方法生成初始种群,并运用启发式策略修复进化过程中出现的不可行解。以胶州-黄岛之间的铁路集装箱班列为例进行仿真计算。结果表明:模型和算法具有较高的计算效率;利用模型及算法得到的集装箱班列始发时刻与集装箱货物的数量、到达时间分布之间具有较好的匹配性,使集装箱在办理站停留时间最短,制定的班列开行计划响应了用户需求。     

北京局集团公司“三港三区域三品类”货运增量对策

在“公转铁”机遇带动下,北京局集团公司将货运增量重点由煤炭转向“三港三品类”,进行运力资源倾斜。分析“三港三区域三品类”货运量、装车卸车,从运输价格、运距结构、运力匹配、装卸车组织、环保政策、路企双方设备能力等方面分析货运增量影响因素,提出“三港三区域三品类”货运增量对策,即:增强货运市场营销策略积极参与市场竞争、加强运输组织释放“三港、三区域”运能、调整作业方案实现效率提升、依托“公转铁”政策支持优化运输结构、落实专用线扩能改造助力货运上量,提升“三港三区域三品类”市场竞争力,满足货运增量需求,实现北京局集团公司货运量持续增长。     

布达佩斯停车管理中的TDM实践

中国目前的交通情况与过去的欧洲有很多相似之处,可借鉴其相关经验教训.以匈牙利布达佩斯为例,探讨其如何利用交通需求管理措施进行城市停车管理.首先指出停车管理的目标应为降低小汽车的使用需求、强化公共交通相对于私人交通的竞争力.然后,在路内停车管理层面,剖析中国停车管理存在的问题,分别从政策及标准、运营管理模式、技术应用三方...     

Challenges in the application of spatial computable general equilibrium models for transport appraisal

The use of spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) models for assessing the economic impacts of transport projects is one of the key items on the research agenda for project appraisal in the Netherlands. These models are particularly suitable for analysing indirect effects of transport projects through linkages between the transport sector and the wider economy. Potentially, according to the literature, indirect effects that are additional to first-order direct cost reductions can turn out to be up to almost 80% in magnitude of the direct impacts. Given the relevance of these models for policy appraisal, experiences with this new modelling approach are important to report. After two years of development and application of SCGE models for transport appraisal, we found that the translation of theory behind the spatial equilibrium models into practical model specifications and empirical applications is a challenging task, and may lead to problems in project appraisal in terms of inaccuracies in the assessment of impacts. This paper discusses some key challenges we encountered with the specification of the Dutch SCGE model RAEM. This chapter is especially useful for researchers developing SCGE applications for use in transport appraisal and those who want to get a better understanding of differences between theoretical and computable SCGE modelling.     

季节性冻土的水-热-力建模与数值分析

为了防治季节性冻土区由水-热-力相互作用引起的道路病害,对季节性冻土水-热-力耦合问题进行了研究。根据季节性冻土的特点,重点考虑了基质势和压力势与温度的关系,给出了季节性冻土水-热-力三场耦合的数学模型,并将耦合问题归结为求解一个非线性、非稳态温度场微分方程,含水量、应力及蠕变变形都可以在温度求解以后算出。详细推导了该方程的数值解法,包括有限元方程、时间域离散及迭代方法。最后对国道G109橡皮山段季节性冻土区公路路堤进行了数值模拟,对计算值与实测值做了对比。结果表明:采用水泥加固砂砾垫层的对比断面与采用砂砾垫层的原断面相比,其温度更低,含水量及预测的路面变形量更小。     

突发性自然灾害对运输需求管理的思考

突发性自然灾害给国民经济及交通运输业的发展带来了重创,通过对我国交通运输需求及供给的分析,提出突发性自然灾害下应对交通需求的措施,以便更好地应对突发性自然灾害,保证交通体系的正常运转,减少国家的经济损失。