The concept and impact analysis of a flexible mobility on demand system

This paper introduces an innovative transportation concept called Flexible Mobility on Demand (FMOD), which provides personalized services to passengers. FMOD is a demand responsive system in which a list of travel options is provided in real-time to each passenger request. The system provides passengers with flexibility to choose from a menu that is optimized in an assortment optimization framework. For operators, there is flexibility in terms of vehicle allocation to different service types: taxi, shared-taxi and mini-bus. The allocation of the available fleet to these three services is carried out dynamically so that vehicles can change roles during the day. The FMOD system is built based on a choice model and consumer surplus is taken into account in order to improve passenger satisfaction. Furthermore, profits of the operators are expected to increase since the system adapts to changing demand patterns. In this paper, we introduce the concept of FMOD and present preliminary simulation results. It is shown that the dynamic allocation of the vehicles to different services provides significant benefits over static allocation. Furthermore, it is observed that the trade-off between consumer surplus and operator’s profit is critical. The optimization model is adapted in order to take into account this trade-off by controlling the level of passenger satisfaction. It is shown that with such control mechanisms FMOD provides improved results in terms of both profit and consumer surplus.     

The fleet renewal problem with regional emission limitations: Case study from Roll-on/Roll-off shipping

In this paper, the maritime fleet renewal problem (MFRP) is extended to include regional limitations in the form of emission control areas. The motivation for including this aspect is that strengthening of emission regulations in such areas is expected to be challenging for deep sea shipping in the years to come. In the proposed model, various means to cope with these stricter emission regulations are evaluated for new vessels, and the possibility of upgrading existing vessels with new emission reduction technology is introduced. We consider future fuel prices to be important for the problem, and have chosen to treat them as uncertain, and thus, a stochastic programming model is chosen. A fleet renewal problem faced by the liner shipping operator Wallenius Wilhelmsen Logistics, concerning whether to use low sulphur fuel or have an exhaust gas scrubber system installed to comply with sulphur regulation in emission control areas from 2015, is used as a case study. Furthermore, tests show that the savings from including the aspect of emission control areas in the MFRP are substantial.     

Assessing the importance of transportation activity data for urban emission inventories

The aim of this research is the implementation of a GPS-based modelling approach for improving the characterization of vehicle speed spatial variation within urban areas, and a comparison of the resulting emissions with a widely used approach to emission inventory compiling. The ultimate goal of this study is to evaluate and understand the importance of activity data for improving the road transport emission inventory in urban areas. For this purpose, three numerical tools, namely, (i) the microsimulation traffic model (VISSIM); (ii) the mesoscopic emissions model (TREM); and (iii) the air quality model (URBAIR), were linked and applied to a medium-sized European city (Aveiro, Portugal). As an alternative, traffic emissions based on a widely used approach are calculated by assuming a vehicle speed value according to driving mode. The detailed GPS-based modelling approach results in lower total road traffic emissions for the urban area (7.9, 5.4, 4.6 and 3.2% of the total PM10, NO_x, CO and VOC daily emissions, respectively). Moreover, an important variation of emissions was observed for all pollutants when analysing the magnitude of the 5th and 95th percentile emission values for the entire urban area, ranging from −15 to 49% for CO, −14 to 31% for VOC, −19 to 46% for NO_x and −22 to 52% for PM10. The proposed GPS-based approach reveals the benefits of addressing the spatial and temporal variability of the vehicle speed within urban areas in comparison with vehicle speed data aggregated by a driving mode, demonstrating its usefulness in quantifying and reducing the uncertainty of road transport inventories.     

The asymmetric effects of income and fuel price on air transport demand

Forecasts of passenger demand are an important parameter for aviation planners. Air transport demand models typically assume a perfectly reversible impact of the demand drivers. However, there are reasons to believe that the impacts of some of the demand drivers such as fuel price or income on air transport demand may not be perfectly reversible. Two types of imperfect reversibility, namely asymmetry and hysteresis, are possible. Asymmetry refers to the differences in the demand impacts of a rising price or income from that of a falling price or income. Hysteresis refers to the dependence of the impacts of changing price or income on previous history, especially on previous maximum price or income. We use US time series data and decompose each of fuel price and income into three component series to develop an econometric model for air transport demand that is capable of capturing the potential imperfectly reversible relationships and test for the presence or absence of reversibility. We find statistical evidence of asymmetry and hysteresis – for both, prices and income – in air transport demand. Implications for policy and practice are then discussed.     

高速交通中堵塞形成阶段的交通流模型

研究了高速交通中由于各种交通瓶颈而导致交通堵塞的过程，通过与高速空气动力学中的激波问题作比拟，建立适用于这一过程的交通流模型，包括完全堵塞和部分堵塞两种状态下的不同模型。依据实际测量数据，论证了平面交叉口绿灯转红灯时车流堵塞波的推进速度满足正态分布假设，其拟合优度高于泊松分布假设。建立的完全堵塞状态下的交通流模型揭示，随着上游来流的平均流量增加，堵塞波的推进速度呈指数规律上升，堵塞前后交通状态指数改变值在O．02～O．30范围内。根据部分堵塞状态下的交通流模型，又可以得到不同程度堵塞条件下，堵塞波的推进速度与上游来流流量之间的定量变化规律，可以作为控制上游来流流量，以减缓堵塞发展或尽快消除堵塞的计算依据。     

牵引供电系统优化设计研究

本文论述电气化铁道供电系统优化设计的新课题。在建立牵引仿真(或牵引计算)数据库基础上,应用数学规划方法提出了寻优设计的两个数学模型:最小能损模型和最少工程费用模型,并详细讨论了以最小能损为目标函数的数学模型及算法。给出的算例表明,按寻优设计方案能有效地减少整个牵引供电系统中的功率损失(能量损失)。     

供应链企业业务外包决策模型研究

为适应供应链企业业务外包决策的需要，建立了供应链企业业务外包模型，分析了供需双方独立决策时各自的产量决策和生产能力投资决策．讨论了基于价格合同的外包形式，建立了2个企业进行业务外包决策的两阶段动态博弈模型，并证明了其存在子博弈精练Nash均衡．     

Evaluation of two atmospheric models for wind–wave modelling in the NW Mediterranean

The NW Mediterranean experiences, as illustrated by the last decade, strong and rapidly varying storms with severe waves and winds. This has motivated a continuous validation of models and the efforts to improve wave and wind predictions. In this paper we use two atmospherics models, MASS (from SMC-Meteorological Office of Catalunya) and ARPEGE (from Météo-France), to force two third generation wave models: WAM and SWAN. The evaluation and comparison has been carried out for two severe storms registered in November 2001 and March–April 2002.The ARPEGE and MASS models predicted higher 10 m wind speeds than coastal meteorological stations, a fact attributed to local land influences. Regarding the 10 m wind direction, models do not present large differences, although considerable deviations from recorded data were found during some dates. ARPEGE presents less scatter and lower errors than MASS when compared with QuikSCAT data.The 10m wind fields from both atmospheric models were used to force the two selected wave models and analyse the errors and sensitivities when predicting severe wave storms. The wave model simulations show some interesting results; during the storm, the spatial wave pattern using ARPEGE showed a higher maximum, although the values of significant wave height at the buoys were lower than the ones forced by MASS (with both WAM and SWAN). The SWAN simulations show a better agreement in predicting the growing and waning of the storm peaks. The prediction of mean period was improved when using the ARPEGE wind field. However the underestimation by SWAN due to the large energy at high frequencies was evident. Validation of spectral shape predictions showed that it still has considerable error when predicting the full frequency spectra. The storms showed bimodal spectral features which were not always reproduced by wave models and are likely to be responsible for part of the discrepancies.     

The influence of different turbulence schemes on modelling primary production in a 1D coupled physical–biological model

A one-dimensional (1D) coupled physical–microbiological model has been applied to a site in the central North Sea. The impact of the choice of the turbulence closure scheme on the modelling the primary production has been investigated.The model was run with four different parameterisations of vertical mixing of heat, momentum and dissolved and suspended matters, using M2 tidal forcing and the hourly mean meteorological forcing of 1989 to reproduce the annual thermal structure and primary production. The four mixing parameterisations are: Level 2 turbulence closure scheme [Mellor, G.L., Yamada, T., 1974. A hierarchy of turbulence closure models for planetary boundary layers. J. Atmos. Sci. 31, 1791–1806; Mellor, G.L., Yamada, T., 1982. Development of a turbulence closure model for geophysical Fluid problems. Rev. Geophys. Space Phys. 20 (4) 851–875] using an explicit numerical scheme [Sharples, J., Tett, P., 1994. Modelling the effect of physical variability on the midwater chlorophyll maximum. J. Mar. Res. 52, 219–238]; a version of the Level 2.5 turbulence closure scheme [Galperin, B., Kantha, L.H., Hassid, S., Rosati, A., 1988. A quasi-equilibrium turbulent energy model for geophysical flows. J. Atmos. Sci. 45, 55–62; Ruddick, K.G., Deleersnijder, E., Luyten, P.J., Ozer, J., 1995. Haline stratification in the rhine/meuse freshwater plume: a 3D model sensitivity analysis. Cont. Shelf Res. 15 (13) 1597–1630] simplified to use an algebraic mixing length by Sharples and Simpson [Sharples, J., Simpson, J.H., 1995. Semidiurnal and longer period stability cycles in the Liverpool Bay region of freshwater influence. Cont. Shelf Res. 15, 295–313], also solved explicitly; the same simplified L2.5 scheme with an implicit numerical solution and modified vertical discretisation scheme [Annan, J.D., 1999. Numerical methods for the solution of the turbulence energy equations in the shelf seas. Int. J. Numer. Methods Fluids 29, 193–206]; and another version of the same scheme (but using a different algebraic mixing length) as described by Xing and Davies [Xing, J., Davies, A.M., 1996a. Application of turbulence energy models to the computation of tidal currents and mixing intensities in the shelf edge regions. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 26, 417–447; Xing, J., Davies, A.M., 1996b. Application of a range of turbulence models to the computation of tidal currents and mixing intensities in shelf edge regions. Cont. Shelf. Res. 16, 517–547; Xing, J., Davies, A.M., 1998. Application of a range of turbulence energy models to the computation of the internal tide. Int. J. Numer. Methods Fluids 26, 1055–1084]. Various model outputs at the sea surface and in depth profiles have been compared with data collected in 1989 as part of the North Sea Project [Huthnance, J.M., 1990. Progress on North Sea Project. NERC News, vol. 12, pp. 25–29, UK]. It is shown that the biological results are extremely sensitive to the small changes in the physical conditions, which arise due to the different turbulence schemes tested. The timing of the spring bloom and the maintenance of the midwater chlorophyll maximum all differ greatly between model runs, and the gross primary production varies by a factor of two from the highest to lowest results. The simplified Level 2.5 scheme, implemented using the numerical methods of Annan [Annan, J.D., 1999. Numerical methods for the solution of the turbulence energy equations in the shelf seas. Int. J. Numer. Methods Fluids 29, 193–206], produces results, which give the best agreement with the available data.     

Large motion mountain biking dynamics

A bond graph model of a mountain bike and rider is created to develop baseline predictions for the performance of mountain bikes during large excursion maneuvers such as drops, jumps, crashes and rough terrain riding. The model assumes planar dynamics, a hard-tail (front suspension only) bicycle and a rider fixed to the bicycle. An algorithm is developed to allow tracking of a virtual tire-ground contact point for events that separate the wheels from the ground. This model would be most applicable to novice mountain bikers who maintain a nearly rigid relationship between their body and the bicycle as opposed to experienced riders who are versed in controlling the bicycle independent of the body. Simulations of a steep drop are performed for various initial conditions to qualitatively validate the predictions of the model. Results from this model are to be compared to experimental data and more complex models in later research, particularly models including a separate rider. The overarching goals of the research are to examine and understand the dynamics and control of interactions between a cyclist and mountain bike. Specific goals are to understand the improvement in performance afforded by an experienced rider, to hypothesize human control algorithms that allow riders to perform manoeuvres well and safely, to predict structural bike and body forces from these maneuvers and to quantify performance differences between hard-tail and full suspension bicycles.