The influence of different turbulence schemes on modelling primary production in a 1D coupled physical–biological model

A one-dimensional (1D) coupled physical–microbiological model has been applied to a site in the central North Sea. The impact of the choice of the turbulence closure scheme on the modelling the primary production has been investigated.The model was run with four different parameterisations of vertical mixing of heat, momentum and dissolved and suspended matters, using M2 tidal forcing and the hourly mean meteorological forcing of 1989 to reproduce the annual thermal structure and primary production. The four mixing parameterisations are: Level 2 turbulence closure scheme [Mellor, G.L., Yamada, T., 1974. A hierarchy of turbulence closure models for planetary boundary layers. J. Atmos. Sci. 31, 1791–1806; Mellor, G.L., Yamada, T., 1982. Development of a turbulence closure model for geophysical Fluid problems. Rev. Geophys. Space Phys. 20 (4) 851–875] using an explicit numerical scheme [Sharples, J., Tett, P., 1994. Modelling the effect of physical variability on the midwater chlorophyll maximum. J. Mar. Res. 52, 219–238]; a version of the Level 2.5 turbulence closure scheme [Galperin, B., Kantha, L.H., Hassid, S., Rosati, A., 1988. A quasi-equilibrium turbulent energy model for geophysical flows. J. Atmos. Sci. 45, 55–62; Ruddick, K.G., Deleersnijder, E., Luyten, P.J., Ozer, J., 1995. Haline stratification in the rhine/meuse freshwater plume: a 3D model sensitivity analysis. Cont. Shelf Res. 15 (13) 1597–1630] simplified to use an algebraic mixing length by Sharples and Simpson [Sharples, J., Simpson, J.H., 1995. Semidiurnal and longer period stability cycles in the Liverpool Bay region of freshwater influence. Cont. Shelf Res. 15, 295–313], also solved explicitly; the same simplified L2.5 scheme with an implicit numerical solution and modified vertical discretisation scheme [Annan, J.D., 1999. Numerical methods for the solution of the turbulence energy equations in the shelf seas. Int. J. Numer. Methods Fluids 29, 193–206]; and another version of the same scheme (but using a different algebraic mixing length) as described by Xing and Davies [Xing, J., Davies, A.M., 1996a. Application of turbulence energy models to the computation of tidal currents and mixing intensities in the shelf edge regions. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 26, 417–447; Xing, J., Davies, A.M., 1996b. Application of a range of turbulence models to the computation of tidal currents and mixing intensities in shelf edge regions. Cont. Shelf. Res. 16, 517–547; Xing, J., Davies, A.M., 1998. Application of a range of turbulence energy models to the computation of the internal tide. Int. J. Numer. Methods Fluids 26, 1055–1084]. Various model outputs at the sea surface and in depth profiles have been compared with data collected in 1989 as part of the North Sea Project [Huthnance, J.M., 1990. Progress on North Sea Project. NERC News, vol. 12, pp. 25–29, UK]. It is shown that the biological results are extremely sensitive to the small changes in the physical conditions, which arise due to the different turbulence schemes tested. The timing of the spring bloom and the maintenance of the midwater chlorophyll maximum all differ greatly between model runs, and the gross primary production varies by a factor of two from the highest to lowest results. The simplified Level 2.5 scheme, implemented using the numerical methods of Annan [Annan, J.D., 1999. Numerical methods for the solution of the turbulence energy equations in the shelf seas. Int. J. Numer. Methods Fluids 29, 193–206], produces results, which give the best agreement with the available data.     

Large motion mountain biking dynamics

A bond graph model of a mountain bike and rider is created to develop baseline predictions for the performance of mountain bikes during large excursion maneuvers such as drops, jumps, crashes and rough terrain riding. The model assumes planar dynamics, a hard-tail (front suspension only) bicycle and a rider fixed to the bicycle. An algorithm is developed to allow tracking of a virtual tire-ground contact point for events that separate the wheels from the ground. This model would be most applicable to novice mountain bikers who maintain a nearly rigid relationship between their body and the bicycle as opposed to experienced riders who are versed in controlling the bicycle independent of the body. Simulations of a steep drop are performed for various initial conditions to qualitatively validate the predictions of the model. Results from this model are to be compared to experimental data and more complex models in later research, particularly models including a separate rider. The overarching goals of the research are to examine and understand the dynamics and control of interactions between a cyclist and mountain bike. Specific goals are to understand the improvement in performance afforded by an experienced rider, to hypothesize human control algorithms that allow riders to perform manoeuvres well and safely, to predict structural bike and body forces from these maneuvers and to quantify performance differences between hard-tail and full suspension bicycles.     

Food supply mechanisms for cold-water corals along a continental shelf edge

In recent years it has been documented that deep-water coral reefs of the species Lophelia pertusa are a major benthic habitat in Norwegian waters. However, basic information about the biology and ecology of this species is still unknown. Lophelia live and thrive under special environmental conditions of which factors such as temperature, water depth, water movement and food supply are important. The present work explores the hypothesis that Lophelia forms reefs in places where the encounter rate of food particles is sufficiently high and stable over long periods of time for continuous growth. This is done by relating the distribution of reefs with the results of numerical ocean modelling.Numerical simulations have been performed with an idealized bottom topography similar to what is found outside parts of the Norwegian coast. In the simulations the model is first forced with an along slope jet and then with an idealized atmospheric low pressure. The model results show that the encounter rates between the particles and the water layer near the seabed are particularly high close to the shelf break. This may indicate that many Lophelia reefs are located along the shelf edges because the supply of food is particularly good in these areas.A sensitivity study of the particle supply in the area close to the seabed for increasing latitude has also been done. This shows that the Ekman transport in the benthic layer tends to create a steady supply of food for benthic organisms near the shelf edge away from the equator.     

An aggregate demand model for air passenger traffic in the hub-and-spoke network

In this paper, we build an aggregate demand model for air passenger traffic in a hub-and-spoke network. This model considers the roles of airline service variables such as service frequency, aircraft size, ticket price, flight distance, and number of spokes in the network. It also takes into account the influence of local passengers and social-economic and demographic conditions in the spoke and hub metropolitan areas. The hub airport capacity, which has a significant impact on service quality in the hub airport and in the whole hub-and-spoke network, is also taken into consideration.Our demand model reveals that airlines can attract more connecting passengers in a hub-and-spoke network by increasing service frequency than by increasing aircraft size in the same percentage. Our research confirms the importance of local service to connecting passengers, and finds that, interestingly, airlines’ services in the first flight leg are more important to attract passengers than those in the second flight segment. Based on data in this study, we also find that a 1% reduction of ticket price will bring about 0.9% more connecting passengers, and a 1% increase of airport acceptance rate can bring about 0.35% more connecting passengers in the network, with all else equal. These findings are helpful for airlines to understand the effects of changing their services, and also useful for us to quantify the benefits of hub airport expansion projects.At the end of this paper, we give an example as an application to demonstrate how the developed demand model could be used to valuate passengers’ direct benefit from airport capacity expansion.     

Assessment of wind quality for oceanographic modelling in semi-enclosed basins

The quality of surface winds derived from four meteorological models is assessed in the semi-enclosed Adriatic Sea over a 2-month period: a global hydrostatic model ECMWF T511 (40 km resolution), a hydrostatic limited area model LAMBO (20 km), and two non-hydrostatic limited area models: LAMI (7 km) and COAMPS™ (4 km). These wind models are used to drive a 2 km resolution wave model (SWAN) of the Adriatic, and wind and wave results are compared with observations at the ISMAR oceanographic tower off Venice. Waves are also compared at buoy locations near Ancona and Ortona. Consistently with earlier studies, the ECMWF fields underestimate the wind magnitude and do not reproduce the known spatial structure of strong wind events. The results show that the higher-resolution, limited area models LAMI and COAMPS exhibit better amplitude response than the coarser ECMWF: there is a 3- to 4-fold reduction of the wind underestimation at the platform (from 36% to 8–11%). The wave response is also improved with LAMI and COAMPS: there is a 2-fold reduction in the underestimation of wave heights at the platform. These non-hydrostatic models also produce wind fields with more realistic small-scale, spatial structure during strong wind events. The temporal correlation between observed and modelled wind, however, is highest with the global ECMWF model due to the fact that large-scale features can be predicted deterministically, whereas small-scale features can only be predicted stochastically. Models with less small-scale structure have better correlation because they have less “noise.” This explanation is supported by increased correlation between modelled and observed waves, the waves representing a smoothing of the wind over fetch and duration. Although there is room for improvement, the high-resolution, non-hydrostatic models (LAMI and COAMPS) offer significant advantages for driving oceanographic simulations in semi-enclosed basins such as the Adriatic Sea.     

A numerical investigation of phytoplankton and Pseudocalanus elongatus dynamics in the spring bloom time in the Gda sk Gulf

A nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton–detritus (1D-NPZD) ‘phytoplankton {Phyt} and Pseudocalanus elongatus {Zoop} dynamics in the spring bloom time in the Gda sk Gulf. The 1D-NPZD model consists of three coupled, partial second-order differential equations of the diffusion type for phytoplankton {Phyt}, zooplankton {Zoop}, nutrients {Nutr} and one ordinary first-order differential equation for benthic detritus pool {Detr}, together with initial and boundary conditions. In this model, the {Zoop} is presented by only one species of copepod (P. elongatus) and {Zoop} is composed of six cohorts of copepods with weights (W_i) and numbers (Z_i); where . The calculations were made for 90 days (March, April, May) for two stations at Gda sk Gulf with a vertical space step of 0.5m and a time step of 900 s. The flow field and water temperature used as the inputs in the biological model 1D-NPZD were reproduced by the prognostic numerical simulation technique using hydrographic climatological data. The results of the numerical investigations described here were compared with the mean observed values of surface chlorophyll-a and depth integrated P. elongatus biomass for 10 years, 1980–1990. The slight differences between the calculated and mean observed values of surface chlorophyll-a and zooplankton biomass are ca. 10–60 mg C m⁻³ and ca. 5–23 mg C m⁻², respectively, depending on the location of the hydrographic station. The 1D-NPZD model with a high-resolution zooplankton module for P. elongatus can be used to describe the temporal patterns for phytoplankton biomass and P. elongatus in the centre of the Gda sk Gulf.     

The effect of prices and income on car travel in the UK

The objective of this paper is to analyse the factors determining household car travel, and specifically the effects of household income and the prices of cars and motor fuels, and to explore the intertemporal pattern of adjustment. The question of asymmetry in the response to rising and falling income is also addressed. Such asymmetry may be caused by habit or resistance to change or the tendency to acquire habits to consume more easily than to abandon them. The impact of prices, the speed of adjustment and the resistance to change will be important in determining the possibility of influencing travel behaviour and specifically car use. The study utilises repeated cross-section data from the annual UK Family Expenditure Surveys and employs a pseudo-panel methodology. The results are compared with those for car ownership estimated on the basis of similar models.     

Future aspects in marine ecosystem modelling

Existing ecosystem models are briefly presented and summarised. The problem of coupling physical and biological models as well as aspects of prediction and predictability are discussed. The general perception that marine ecosystems are inherently unpredictable due to non-linearity becomes questionable if the response of climate variability in marine ecosystems is analysed. Many authors have shown correlations between climate variability and the variability of abundance or biomass of marine organisms such as phytoplankton, zooplankton, benthos or fish recruitment in different parts of the world ocean. In the northern hemisphere, certain species show a linear response to climate variability mainly during winter and spring. However, the underlying mechanisms are not well understood. Often, a phase lag can be observed between climate variability and the reaction of organisms. The identification of a plausible mediator between climate and biology is difficult, since all possible physicochemical mechanisms having a direct or indirect influence on the variability of abundance or biomass of marine organisms have to be considered as mediator.The understanding of the reason of the phase lag, which possibly implies a “biological memory”, and the identification of all possible mediators are necessary to predict the response of marine organisms to climate variability. The identification of mediators will result in an improvement of coupled models, a deeper understanding of physical–biological interaction and the improvement of predictive capability of marine ecosystem models.     

Use of Bayesian inference method to model vehicular air pollution in local urban areas

Traffic Related Air Pollution (TRAP) studies are usually investigated using different categories such as air pollution exposure for health impacts, urban transportation network design to mitigate pollution, environmental impacts of pollution, etc. All of these subfields often rely on a robust air pollution model, which also necessitates an accurate prediction of future pollutants. As is widely accepted by the heath authorities, TRAP is considered to be the major health issue in urban areas, and it is difficult to keep pollution at harmless levels if the time sequenced dynamic pollution and traffic parameters are not identified and modelled efficiently. In our work here, artificial intelligence techniques, such as Bayesian Networks with an optimized configuration, are used to deliver a probabilistic traffic data analysis and predictive modelling for air pollution (SO₂, NO₂ and CO) at very local scale of an urban region with up to 85% accuracy. The main challenge for traditional data analysis is a lack of capability to reveal the hidden links between distant data attributes (e.g. pollution sources, dynamic traffic parameters, etc.), whereas some subtle effects of these parameters or events may play an important role in pollution on a long-term basis. This study focuses on the optimisation of Bayesian Networks to unveil hidden links and to increase the prediction accuracy of TRAP considering its further association with a predictive GIS system.     

高速交通中堵塞形成阶段的交通流模型

研究了高速交通中由于各种交通瓶颈而导致交通堵塞的过程，通过与高速空气动力学中的激波问题作比拟，建立适用于这一过程的交通流模型，包括完全堵塞和部分堵塞两种状态下的不同模型。依据实际测量数据，论证了平面交叉口绿灯转红灯时车流堵塞波的推进速度满足正态分布假设，其拟合优度高于泊松分布假设。建立的完全堵塞状态下的交通流模型揭示，随着上游来流的平均流量增加，堵塞波的推进速度呈指数规律上升，堵塞前后交通状态指数改变值在O．02～O．30范围内。根据部分堵塞状态下的交通流模型，又可以得到不同程度堵塞条件下，堵塞波的推进速度与上游来流流量之间的定量变化规律，可以作为控制上游来流流量，以减缓堵塞发展或尽快消除堵塞的计算依据。