Road Safety Trends at National Level in Europe: A Review of Time-series Analysis Performed during the Period 2000–12

Abstract

This paper presents a review of time-series analysis of road safety trends, aggregated at a national level, which has been performed in the period 2000–12 and applied to European national data sets covering long time periods. It provides a guideline and set of best practices in the area of time-series modelling and identifies the latest methods and applications of national road safety trend analysis in Europe. The paper begins with the methodological framework adopted for aggregate time-series modelling that will be considered, and then discusses a number of relevant applications to long-period data aggregated at the national level, whether for countries alone, or for groups of countries. Some analyses, which were performed at the disaggregated level, are also provided, as they are being used more and more. Finally, the paper summarizes and discusses the significant changes in aggregate road safety trend analysis which occurred during the period and provides recommendations for continuing these research efforts.     

A tool for calculating aircraft emissions and its application to Greek airspace

This paper quantifies the impact of aircraft emissions on local air quality and climate change. Aircraft emissions during the cruise cycle and the landing/take-off cycle are considered. A tool is developed that computes emission values using real-time air traffic data derived from various databases. Emissions include carbon dioxide, hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides. The overall output is a detailed ‘emissions map’ of a given territory that enables the identification of critical emission spots including routes, airports, season, aircraft type and flight category. The method can be used for real-time monitoring of airline emissions and for policy analysis. The proposed tool and resulting outputs are illustrated in the case of the Greek airport system using domestic, international and overflights. Demand volatility driven mainly by tourism and its impact on emissions is assessed.     

Campus parking supply impacts on transportation mode choice

Parking demand is a significant land-use problem in campus planning. The parking policies of universities and large corporations with facilities located in small urban areas shape the character of their campuses. These facilities will benefit from a simplified methodology to study the effects of parking availability on transportation mode mix and impacts on recruitment and staffing policies. This paper, based on a case study of North Dakota State University in the United States, introduces an analytical framework to provide planners with insights about how parking supply and demand affects campus transportation mode choice. The methodology relies only on aggregate mode choice data for the special generator zone and the average aggregate volume/capacity ratio projections for all external routes that access the zone. This reduced data requirement significantly lowers analysis cost and obviates the need for specialized modelling software and spatial network analysis tools. Results illustrate that the framework is effective for analysing mode choice changes under different scenarios of parking supply and population growth.     

钢桁连续刚构桥模型简化方案

特大桥梁模型试验规模较大,制作、测试均较复杂,因此,需要在尽可能反映实桥真实应力的情况下简化试验模型。通过不同模型方案计算分析后得知,在一定的边界条件下,钢桁连续刚构桥全桥一半模型完全能够真实地反映实桥受力状态。这样就能将模型所需的资源减小一半,而且可以在有限的试验室空间内将模型尺寸相对做大。     

潍坊寿光港区航道工程防沙堤平面布置形式研究

采用波浪潮流泥沙数学模型试验手段,对潍坊寿光港区防沙堤建设中的平面布置形式进行研究。根据研究成果,建议选择北槽航道作为5 000 t级通海航道,航道走向63.5°~243.5°。防沙堤工程建议采用双导堤形式,其中北导堤应接岸。建议堤头可先达-4.0 m水深处,观测其堤头附近冲淤变化后,再决定是否继续向海延伸。     

盾构隧道施工对富水软弱地层的扰动分析

为研究盾构隧道施工对富水软弱底层的扰动影响,以大连地铁某标段盾构隧道施工为例,首先基于修正剑桥模型建立土体本构关系,利用Shell结构单元模拟盾构初衬;然后采用流固耦合方法研究土体固结过程对盾构开挖引起软弱地层扰动问题;最后根据仿真结果与现场实测数据,绘制地表沉降对比分析曲线,给出盾构施工引起地表沉降的动态变化趋势.结果表明：孔隙水在盾构开挖完成后仍持续向隧道方向渗透,并引起距隧道较近区域的扰动趋势大于周围较远区域.本研究对提高富水软弱地层条件下盾构施工过程建模的准确性和实效性、指导盾构施工具有指导作用.     

剪纸艺术之审美意蕴及其在现代平面设计的运用

剪纸艺术是一株灿烂的民族艺术之花,是活态的生活文化史,具有深厚而丰赡的审美意蕴。文章通过分析剪纸艺术的风格特征,将其与现代平面设计相结合。重点从传统与现代、传承与创新、图形与设计三个方面,论述了剪纸艺术在现代平面设计中的新理念。通过实例分析可知,二者的巧妙结合,是借鉴其形式特点,保留其形式遗风,借用、延伸其寓意,并结合现代设计理念和表现手法,对其进行再设计,赋予其时代气息和新的生命力。     

Heavy-duty vehicle modelling and longitudinal control

This paper addresses modelling, longitudinal control design and implementation for heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs). The challenging problems here are: (a) an HDV is mass dominant with low power to mass ratio; (b) They possess large actuator delay and actuator saturation. To reduce model mismatch, it is necessary to obtain a nonlinear model which is as simple as the control design method can handle and as complicated as necessary to capture the intrinsic vehicle dynamics. A second order nonlinear vehicle body dynamical model is adopted, which is feedback linearizable. Beside the vehicle dynamics, other main dynamical components along the power-train and drive-train are also modelled, which include turbocharged diesel engine, torque converter, transmission, transmission retarder, pneumatic brake and tyre. The braking system is the most challenging part for control design, which contains three parts: Jake (engine compression) brake, air brake and transmission retarder. The modelling for each is provided. The use of engine braking effect is new complementary to Jake (compression) brake for longitudinal control, which is united with Jake brake in modelling. The control structure can be divided into upper level and lower level. Upper level control uses sliding mode control to generate the desired torque from the desired vehicle acceleration. Lower level control is divided into two branches: (a) engine control: from positive desired torque to desired fuel rate (engine control) using a static engine mapping which basically captures the intrinsic dynamic performance of the turbo-charged diesel engine; (b) brake control: from desired negative torque to generate Jake brake cylinder number to be activated and ON/OFF time periods, applied pneumatic brake pressure and applied voltage of transmission retarder. Test results are also reported.     

出租车合乘

车辆合乘是交通需求管理中的一项措施。交通需求管理,即引导人们采取科学的交通行为,理智地使用（不滥用）道路设施的有限资源。交通需求管理的主要措施遍布在交通行为的各个阶段,其中,组织汽车合乘作为出行方式阶段的措施已经被许多专家、学者提了出来。     

青藏高原机场跑道多年冻土地基温度场特征

对比了青藏高原多年冻土地区机场跑道地基温度场与公路路基温度场, 分析了其地基温度分布、温度沿深度的变化以及地基最大融化深度, 研究了宽幅沥青混凝土道面机场跑道地基温度场特征, 对比了不同道面宽度条件下其地基温度分布、不同时间地基温度沿深度的变化以及跑道中部及道肩的最大融化深度, 并基于道面宽度、时间建立了沥青混凝土道面机场跑道道中地基融化深度的表达式。研究结果表明: 多年冻土地区机场跑道地基温度场与公路路基温度场存在明显差异, 机场跑道地基融土核位置更低, 且全部位于天然地面以下, 而公路路基融土核位置相对较高, 可以通过抬高路堤使融土核全部位于路堤内, 便于通风管等温控措施的施工, 可见由于机场跑道无路堤、道面幅度宽等特点, 使得多年冻土地区公路与铁路建设的现有研究成果不能完全应用于机场跑道建设中; 对于沥青混凝土道面的机场跑道多年冻土地基, 随着道面宽度的增加, 跑道地基稳定性降低, 道面宽度每增加1%, 地基0℃等温线约下降0.17%, 地基融土核最高温约上升0.46%, 道中地基融化深度约加深0.19%, 但当道面宽度超过35 m时, 道中地基融化深度趋于平稳; 相对于道中地基温度场, 道肩受道面宽度的影响较小, 当道面宽度超过25 m时, 其地基融化深度趋于平稳; 道中地基融化深度表达式相关系数为0.988 6, 相对误差在1%以内。