Application of advanced sampling for efficient probabilistic traffic modelling

In probabilistic traffic models, consideration of stochasticity in the dynamics of traffic gives a closer representation of a traffic system in comparison to that of a deterministic approach. Monte Carlo simulation is a broadly accepted method to consider variations in traffic within modelling. In this contribution, the possibility of increasing the efficiency of probabilistic traffic flow models using Monte Carlo simulation is analysed using variance reduction techniques and sequencing, for varied capacity and traffic demand values. The techniques of Importance Sampling, Latin Hypercube Sampling and Quasi-Random Sequencing are compared in a dynamic macroscopic traffic model to demonstrate the effectiveness of these techniques for reduction of the computational load when considering multiple input variations. Demonstration of their efficiency in traffic modelling is expected to lead to a wider application of the methods in practice.     

Forecasting demand for high speed rail

It is sometimes argued that standard state-of-practice logit-based models cannot forecast the demand for substantially reduced travel times, for instance due to High Speed Rail (HSR). The present paper investigates this issue by reviewing the literature on travel time elasticities for long distance rail travel and comparing these with elasticities observed when new HSR lines have opened. This paper also validates the Swedish long distance model, Sampers, and its forecast demand for a proposed new HSR, using aggregate data revealing how the air–rail modal split varies with the difference in generalized travel time between rail and air. The Sampers long distance model is also compared to a newly developed model applying Box–Cox transformations. The paper contributes to the empirical literature on long distance travel, long distance elasticities and HSR passenger demand forecasts. Results indicate that the Sampers model is indeed able to predict the demand for HSR reasonably well. The new non-linear model has even better model fit and also slightly higher elasticities.     

Truck parking in urban areas: Application of choice modelling within traffic microsimulation

Urban truck parking policies include time restrictions, pricing policies, space management and enforcement. This paper develops a method for investigating the potential impact of truck parking policy in urban areas. An econometric parking choice model is developed that accounts for parking type and location. A traffic simulation module is developed that incorporates the parking choice model to select suitable parking facilities/locations. The models are demonstrated to evaluate the impact of dedicating on-street parking in a busy street system in the Toronto CBD. The results of the study show lower mean searching time for freight vehicles when some streets are reserved for freight parking, accompanied by higher search and walking times for passenger vehicles.     

Modelling and validation of coupled high-speed maglev train-and-viaduct systems considering support flexibility

This study presents a more realistic modelling of the maglev-based high-speed railway line in Shanghai, China. Focus is placed on an accurate simulation of the two subsystems: the train subsystem including the magnets and the viaduct subsystem including the modular function units of the rails. The electromagnet force–air gap model with a proportional-derivative (PD) controller is adopted to simulate the interaction between the maglev train via its electromagnets and the viaduct via its modular function units. The flexibilities of the rails, girders, piers and associated elastic bearings are all considered in the modelling of the viaduct subsystem to investigate their effects on an interaction between the two subsystems. By applying the proposed model to the Shanghai maglev line, the essential characteristics of the coupled system can be duly captured. The accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed approach are then validated by comparing the computed dynamic responses and frequencies with the measurement results. It is confirmed that the proposed modelling with a detailed simulation of the magnets and modular function units can duly account for the dynamic interaction between the train and viaduct systems. Moreover, the effects of the inclusion of the flexibilities of the rails, girders and elastic supports to the response of the coupled system are respectively investigated, the results of which prove that their involvements are essential to the accurate prediction of the response of the coupled maglev train–viaduct system.     

Validation of vehicle dynamics simulation models – a review

In this work, a literature survey on the validation of vehicle dynamics simulation models is presented. Estimating the dynamic responses of existing or proposed vehicles has a wide array of applications in the development of vehicle technologies, e.g. active suspensions, controller design, driver assistance systems, etc. Although simulation environments, measurement tools and mathematical theories on vehicle dynamics are well established, the methodical link between the experimental test data and validity analysis of the simulation model is still lacking. This report presents different views on the definition of validation, and its usage in vehicle dynamics simulation models.     

A GIS‐based traffic analysis zone design: implementation and evaluation

The purpose of this paper is to implement an efficient method for GIS‐based traffic analysis zone (TAZ) design in order to evaluate and validate such a method. The method was developed by the authors.

Moran's I spatial autocorrelation coefficient and sample variance are used for evaluating the generated TAZs using the Champaign‐Urbana, IL region as a case study. Sensitivity analysis is also conducted to explore the fluctuations in TAZ generation outcomes. The evaluation, the validation as well as the TAZ design have been implemented with ARC/INFO GIS software on a UNIX workstation platform.     

A multi-commodity Lighthill–Whitham–Richards model of lane-changing traffic flow

Systematic lane changes can seriously deteriorate traffic safety and efficiency inside lane-drop, merge, and other bottleneck areas. In our previous studies (Jin, 2010a, Jin, 2010b), a phenomenological model of lane-changing traffic flow was proposed, calibrated, and analyzed based on a new concept of lane-changing intensity. In this study, we further consider weaving and non-weaving vehicles as two commodities and develop a multi-commodity, behavioral Lighthill–Whitham–Richards (LWR) model of lane-changing traffic flow. Based on a macroscopic model of lane-changing behaviors, we derive a fundamental diagram with parameters determined by car-following and lane-changing characteristics as well as road geometry and traffic composition. We further calibrate and validate fundamental diagrams corresponding to a triangular car-following fundamental diagram with NGSIM data. We introduce an entropy condition for the multi-commodity LWR model and solve the Riemann problem inside a homogeneous lane-changing area. From the Riemann solutions, we derive a flux function in terms of traffic demand and supply. Then we apply the model to study lane-changing traffic dynamics inside a lane-drop area and show that the smoothing effect of HOV lanes is consistent with observations in existing studies. The new theory of lane-changing traffic flow can be readily incorporated into Cell Transmission Model, and this study could lead to better strategies for mitigating bottleneck effects of lane-changing traffic flow.     

Efficient empirical modelling of a high-performance shock absorber for vehicle dynamics studies

This paper develops an intuitive empirical nonlinear dynamic shock absorber model for simulation studies. Unlike other existing dynamic shock absorber models, it does not suffer from the complexity of modelling complex physical behaviour, or the inefficiencies of unstructured black-box modelling. The model consists of an algebraic backbone, which is a function of velocity alone, and a nonlinear low-pass filter, which has been designed based on the observation that the damper can respond more quickly at higher velocities. Due to the simplicity of the model, it can be fitted with data and evaluated quickly. The model was fitted using shock dynamometer test data using a random shock position command. The completed model is then validated using random, sine wave, and bump test data. This analysis shows the strengths and weaknesses of the model and suggests areas for future development.