人的失误模型在船舶溢油事故应急中的应用分析

船舶交通事故问题的预测一直是业内研究人员十分重视的研究课题。分别采用回归预测法、时间序列预测法、灰色理论预测法和贝叶斯统计预测法等不同方法,结合国内某港引航站近十多年来船舶引航总量和事故的实际情况,进行了比较分析和对未来情况予以预测。着重就贝叶斯方法在港口船舶引航风险预测中的运用进行了探讨。结论证明贝叶斯估计方法得到的结果具有良好的预测效果。     

紧急疏散情况下地铁车站动态瓶颈识别

随着城市轨道交通系统逐渐成网,地铁车站日渐拥挤,为了制定科学有效的紧急疏散方案,有必要预先找到车站瓶颈点。基于时间可靠度函数模拟乘客在紧急情况下路径选择行为,在此基础上引入M//G/C/C排队模型对车站排队系统各个服务台进行排队性能指标计算,找出潜在瓶颈点。以广州地铁3号线岗顶站为例,结合车站硬件设施尺寸数量,模拟计算最恶劣情况下乘客疏散过程,找到3处潜在瓶颈点,测算结果与实际观测情况相符合,验证了该方法的有效性。     

拖船操纵运动与水下拖曳列阵的耦合运动分析

建立了拖船操纵运动与水下拖曳列阵的三维非线性数学模型,求解了在脐带非线性缆力作用下的运动方程,模拟了拖曳系统在几种典型状态下其缆索的形态变化,以及列阵张力变化。     

水下爆炸作用下船舱浮筏系统的冲击响应试验研究

设计了船舱浮筏系统的水下爆炸试验装置，测试了浅水域中爆炸的水下爆炸载荷，分析了存在结构反射时的冲击波和气泡脉动压力的幅值、比冲量和能量密度，指出以低频成分为主的气泡脉动压力，对舰船设备隔离系统的冲击响应产生重要的作用。并对水下爆炸载荷作用下船舱浮筏系统的冲击响应进行分析，其结果对于研究舰船设备的抗冲击性能具有参考价值。     

Ant Colony Routing algorithm for freeway networks

Dynamic traffic routing refers to the process of (re)directing vehicles at junctions in a traffic network according to the evolving traffic conditions. The traffic management center can determine desired routes for drivers in order to optimize the performance of the traffic network by dynamic traffic routing. However, a traffic network may have thousands of links and nodes, resulting in a large-scale and computationally complex non-linear, non-convex optimization problem. To solve this problem, Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) is chosen as the optimization method in this paper because of its powerful optimization heuristic for combinatorial optimization problems. ACO is implemented online to determine the control signal – i.e., the splitting rates at each node. However, using standard ACO for traffic routing is characterized by four main disadvantages: 1. traffic flows for different origins and destinations cannot be distinguished; 2. all ants may converge to one route, causing congestion; 3. constraints cannot be taken into account; and 4. neither can dynamic link costs. These problems are addressed by adopting a novel ACO algorithm with stench pheromone and with colored ants, called Ant Colony Routing (ACR). Using the stench pheromone, the ACR algorithm can distribute the vehicles over the traffic network with less or no traffic congestion, as well as reduce the number of vehicles near some sensitive zones, such as hospitals and schools. With colored ants, the traffic flows for multiple origins and destinations can be represented. The proposed approach is also implemented in a simulation-based case study in the Walcheren area, the Netherlands, illustrating the effectiveness of the approach.     

A bi-objective dynamic programming approach for airline green fleet planning

Ensuring a fleet of green aircraft is a basic step in mitigating aviation pollution issues that are expected to be worsen in the coming years due to rapid air traffic growth. This study proposed a novel methodology in green fleet planning in which both profit and green performance of airline are considered simultaneously and explicitly. To do this, a Green Fleet Index (GFI) is derived as an indicator to quantify the green performance of airline’s fleet. It measures the degree of airline compliance with a standard requirement in terms of emission, noise, and fuel consumption. A bi-objective dynamic programming model is then formulated to find optimal aircraft acquisition (lease or purchase) decision by minimizing GFI and maximizing profit. Several interesting results are obtained: (1) considering environmental issue as secondary objective yields a greener fleet; (2) airline’s profit is affected, but could be recovered from environmental cost savings; (3) increasing load factor is an effective operational improvement strategy to enhance airline’s green performance and raise profit level. It is anticipated that the framework developed in this study could assist airlines to make a smart decision when considering the need to be green.     

地铁运营对古建筑物振动响应影响分析

以南昌地铁1号线诱发的环境振动对"八一起义纪念馆"影响为工程背景,运用傅里叶变换法和有限元软件ANSYS,分别建立列车-轨道结构双层梁模型和大地-建筑物有限元模型。以水平速度为评价指标,仿真分析轮轨竖向力作用以及竖向力和横向力共同作用对古建筑物的振动影响。计算结果表明,地铁引起的建筑物振动为低频振动;随着楼层的增加,建筑物水平振动逐渐增大;横向力对建筑物的振动能量分布没有影响,对水平振动有一定的影响,其中对x方向影响较大;该建筑物振动没有超过标准。     

高速铁路5×50m钢箱-混凝土连续结合梁设计研究

连续结合梁作为将钢与混凝土相组合共同参与工作的体系,受力十分复杂,应用中要确保结构具有良好的静力、动力性能。以某高速铁路5×50 m钢箱-混凝土连续结合梁为工程背景,介绍设计时对负弯矩区处理、桥面板预应力施加、混凝土徐变和活载效应、动力性能等重点问题的计算和分析,研究表明,通过调整施工顺序、采用合理的徐变及活载计算方法、底板铺设混凝土等措施,可使结构各项指标满足要求。     

车辆碰撞中乘员骨盆力学响应特性的研究

本文旨在研究车辆碰撞中乘员骨盆损伤机理和年龄对碰撞响应的影响。首先开发并验证了老年人骨盆的有限元模型。其次,对比研究了3个具有不同年龄特征的骨盆模型(老年骨盆模型、中年骨盆模型GHBMC和儿童骨盆模型CHARM-10)在材料特性、生理特征、力学响应和损伤方面的差异。结果表明:具有相似生理几何尺寸的老年骨盆模型和中年骨盆模型与儿童骨盆模型相比有较大的差异。侧面碰撞实验的结果表明,3种年龄骨盆模型中,老年骨盆模型的碰撞峰值力和受力最大时位移量都最大,而碰撞中最大位移却最小。对碰撞响应数据进行拟合的结果表明,3种年龄骨盆模型的碰撞峰值力皆随冲击能量呈指数增长,而碰撞中最大位移量则随冲击能量呈线性增长。应力云图分析结果表明,骨盆在侧向冲击下最易受伤或骨折的部位是耻骨支、骶髂关节和髋臼。     

不断轨动态称量轨道衡安装导引

从轨道衡地点选定、线路要求、机械台而、电气设备等方面介绍不断轨动态称量轨道衡安装各阶段、过程的方法与指引，以及轨道衡的计量检定。