Predictive power of inspection outcomes for future shipping accidents – an empirical appraisal with special attention for human factor aspects

This paper investigates whether deficiencies detected during port state control (PSC) inspections have predictive power for future accident risk, in addition to other vessel-specific risk factors like ship type, age, size, flag, and owner. The empirical analysis links accidents to past inspection outcomes and is based on data from all around the globe of PSC regimes using harmonized deficiency codes. These codes are aggregated into eight groups related to human factor aspects like crew qualifications, working and living conditions, and fatigue and safety management. This information is integrated by principal components into a single overall deficiency index, which is related to future accident risk by means of logit models. The factor by which accident risk increases for vessels with above average compared to below average deficiency scores is about 6 for total loss, 2 for very serious, 1.5 for serious, and 1.3 for less-serious accidents. Relations between deficiency scores and accident risk are presented in graphical format. The results may be of interest to PSC authorities for targeting inspection areas, to maritime administrations for improving asset allocation based on prediction scenarios connected with vessel traffic data, and to maritime insurers for refining their premium strategies.     

里海远洋渔船无人机舱系统研究

针对我国远洋渔船装备落后、操纵性差、机舱环境恶劣、电站管理水平低、劳动强度大以及渔船机舱自动化水平低等问题,介绍里海远洋渔船无人机舱系统的设计与组成。通过采用主机遥控系统、电站功率管理系统、机舱监测报警系统以及网络通信等技术,将自动化、电气化、信息化和智能化控制技术等船舶前沿科技应用于实船,构建一个满足法国船级社(BV)机舱自动化最高等级AUT-UMS要求的无人机舱系统,以提高远洋渔船的操控性、安全性和可靠性,提升供电系统自动化管理水平,改善作业人员工作环境。对该自动化系统的效果和特点进行分析,结果可为我国远洋渔船自动化系统的研究提供策略和思路。     

斜拉索-磁流变阻尼器多性能约束下的减振控制算法

提出一种极点和方差指标约束下的斜拉索-磁流变减振控制算法。基于Halmiton原理与切比雪夫级数求解方法建立斜拉索-阻尼器减振控制系统状态空间方程。以极点表达减振控制快速性和稳定性约束,以方差表达小振幅和振速约束,基于凸优化理论,给出满足相容快速性、稳定性、小振幅以及振速指标约束下的磁流变半主动减振控制算法。最后,以某斜拉桥C20号斜拉索为例进行仿真验证。结果表明,给出的减振控制算法能保证斜拉索在随机外界激励下的快速性稳定性,且有效抑制拉索的振幅,减振效果良好。     

存在饱和输入的欠驱动船舶航迹跟踪控制

针对控制输入存在饱和限制的欠驱动船舶的航迹跟踪问题,提出鲁棒饱和控制方法。以船舶纵向速度和艏向角速度为虚拟输入,设计饱和运动学控制器,并引入二阶滤波器形式对控制器进行简化;利用反步法并引入Nussbaum型函数,设计饱和动力学控制器,以实现对任意光滑航迹的跟踪控制,并保证跟踪误差收敛至零点附近的一个有界区域内。仿真算例验证了设计方法的有效性和鲁棒性。     

带扰动观测器的船舶轨迹跟踪自适应动态面滑模控制

针对遭受未知外部环境扰动的三自由度全驱动船舶轨迹跟踪控制问题,设计一种带扰动观测器的自适应动态面滑模控制方法。该方法构造扰动观测器估计未知扰动,并对控制量进行前馈补偿,采用σ修正泄漏项的自适应律估计扰动观测误差的界以提高控制精度,结合动态面技术解决传统反演法的微分爆炸问题,并选取李雅普诺夫函数证明该控制器可保证闭环系统内所有信号的一致最终有界性。基于一艘供给船舶进行仿真试验,结果表明,所设计的控制器输出合理有效且跟踪精度高,在工程实际中具有一定的参考价值。     

Model Test on Grouting Law in Dynamic Water-Rich Sand Layers by the Electric Resistance Method北大核心CSCD

In order to study the diffusion law of grouting slurry in the water-rich sand layer under flowing water conditions, a grouting test model consisting of a main test system, a grouting system, and a measurement system was developed. And for detecting the diffusion scope of the grouts, a new resistivity method was proposed. It is found that the relationship between grouting pressure and grouting rate during the test is strong. Under hydrodynamic conditions, the grouting slurry diffuses elliptically. Due to gravity and the effect of the upper water flow, the center of gravity of the ellipsoid is below the grouting outlet, and the grouting effectively improves the physical and mechanical properties of water-rich sand bodies. At the same time, the resistivity method has a good application effect on the detection of grouting diffusion range. The range of slurry diffusion obtained by the resistivity method is basically consistent with the boundary of the stone body after excavation, indicating that the resistivity method is reliable for detection of grouting range in dynamic water-rich sand layer. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.     

Effect of Seismic Parameters on the Safety Factor for an Underground Cavern北大核心CSCD

In order to quantitatively evaluate the safety of the surrounding rock of an underground cavern under seis-mic load, a comprehensive evaluation method for the stability of surrounding rock is proposed based on the general safety factor and point safety factor. A calculation method for the general safety factor of a cavern based on the prin-ciple of shear strength reduction of a rock mass is given, the run-through of the plastic zone between the main power-house and main transformer room is presented as a critical criterion for the overall instability of the cavern, and the general safety factor is obtained by searching for the reduction coefficient. A point safety factor calculation method based on the Mohr-Coulomb yield criterion is given. The influence of different seismic input parameters on the general safety factor of the cavern and the point safety factor of key positions are studied based on an underground power-house cavern of a hydropower station in Southwest China. The results show that the quantitative evaluation method for the stability of the surrounding rock based on the safety factor is feasible and can reflect the general safety de-gree and local safety degree of different positions of the cavern for different working conditions. It is found that the general safety factor of the cavern and the point safety factor of key positions decrease with an increase of the ampli-tude and duration of a seismic wave while they increase with an increase of the incident angle; additionally, the low frequency of a seismic wave has a great influence on the cavern while the high frequency has little effect. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.     

Assessing the impact of reduced visibility on traffic crash risk using microscopic data and surrogate safety measures

Due to the difficulty of obtaining accurate real-time visibility and vehicle based traffic data at the same time, there are only few research studies that addressed the impact of reduced visibility on traffic crash risk. This research was conducted based on a new visibility detection system by mounting visibility sensor arrays combined with adaptive learning modules to provide more accurate visibility detections. The vehicle-based detector, Wavetronix SmartSensor HD, was installed at the same place to collect traffic data. Reduced visibility due to fog were selected and analyzed by comparing them with clear cases to identify the differences based on several surrogate measures of safety under different visibility classes. Moreover, vehicles were divided into different types and the vehicles in different lanes were compared in order to identify whether the impact of reduced visibility due to fog on traffic crash risk varies depending on vehicle types and lanes. Log-Inverse Gaussian regression modeling was then applied to explore the relationship between time to collision and visibility together with other traffic parameters. Based on the accurate visibility and traffic data collected by the new visibility and traffic detection system, it was concluded that reduced visibility would significantly increase the traffic crash risk especially rear-end crashes and the impact on crash risk was different for different vehicle types and for different lanes. The results would be helpful to understand the change in traffic crash risk and crash contributing factors under fog conditions. We suggest implementing the algorithms in real-time and augmenting it with ITS measures such as VSL and DMS to reduce crash risk.     

Empirical analysis of short period traffic counts and their efficiency: the case of Indian traffic

Short period traffic counts (SPTCs) are conducted routinely to estimate the annual average daily traffic (AADT) at a particular site. This paper uses Indian traffic volume data to methodically and extensively study the effect of four aspects related to the design of SPTCs. These four aspects are: (i) for how long, (ii) on which days should SPTCs be carried out, (iii) how many times, and (iv) on which months should SPTCs be carried out? The analyses indicate that the best durations for conducting SPTCs are 3 days (starting with a Thursday) and 7 days, for total traffic and truck traffic, respectively. Further, these counts should be repeated twice a year keeping a separation of two months between the counts to obtain good estimates of AADT at minimal cost. An additional outcome of this study has been the determination of seasonal factor values for roads in developing economies, like India.