Tradable emission permit system for urban motorists: The neo-classical standard model revisited

This article deals with the feasibility of a tradable emission permit system (TEPs) for urban motorists. The objective is to develop a new microeconomic theoretical model to reduce urban pollution. We suppose that the city's regulating authority sets up a tradable emission permit system based on the number of kilometres covered by private cars. By the use of a Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) function, we determine the equilibrium under an environmental constraint and analyse the effects of a TEPs on social welfare. The aim is to find the optimal quantity of permits leading to the desired environmental objective. The analytical and numerical results of the model show the instrument's feasibility and efficiency. An important variable in the model must be taken into account: the knowledge of environmental damage. This variable will clearly influence the tool's success.     

Impact of phytoplankton community size on a linked global ocean optical and ecosystem model

We isolated the effect phytoplankton cell size has on varying remote sensing reflectance spectra (R_rs(λ)) in the presence of optically active constituents by using optical and radiative transfer models linked in an offline diagnostic calculation to a global biogeochemical/ecosystem/circulation model with explicit phytoplankton size classes. Two case studies were carried out, each with several scenarios to isolate the effects of chlorophyll concentration, phytoplankton cell size, and size-varying phytoplankton absorption on R_rs(λ). The goal of the study was to determine the relative contribution of phytoplankton cell size and chlorophyll to overall R_rs(λ) and to understand where a standard band ratio algorithm (OC4) may under/overestimate chlorophyll due to R_rs(λ) being significantly affected by phytoplankton size. Phytoplankton cell size was found to contribute secondarily to R_rs(λ) variability and to amplify or dampen the seasonal cycle in R_rs(λ), driven by chlorophyll. Size and chlorophyll were found to change in phase at low to mid-latitudes, but were anti-correlated or poorly correlated at high latitudes. Phytoplankton size effects increased model calculated R_rs(443) in the subtropical ocean during local spring through early fall months in both hemispheres and decreased R_rs(443) in the Northern Hemisphere high latitude regions during local summer to fall months. This study attempts to tease apart when/where variability about the OC4 relationship may be associated with cell size variability. The OC4 algorithm may underestimate [Chl] when the fraction of microplankton is elevated, which occurs in the model simulations during local spring/summer months at high latitudes in both hemispheres.     

复杂水域船舶进出港全过程仿真建模方法

本文对比分析了国内外应用各种建模方法在船舶通航研究中的优缺点,提出了一种基于多智能体信息交互的港口运营系统仿真建模方法,旨在拟实反映复杂水域船舶进出港的全过程。结合多智能体系统仿真理论、离散事件仿真理论与多元数据统计分析方法,实现了对复杂水域船舶进出港全年全过程的精细化仿真,并系统总结了可通过建模解决的关键研究问题。     

A new logit‐artificial neural network ensemble for mode choice modeling: a case study for border transport

Logit model is one of the statistical techniques commonly used for mode choice modeling, while artificial neural network (ANN) is a very popular type of artificial intelligence technique used for mode choice modeling. Ensemble learning has evolved to be very effective approach to enhance the performance for many applications through integration of different models. In spite of this advantage, the use of ANN‐based ensembles in mode choice modeling is under explored. The focus of this study is to investigate the use of aforementioned techniques for different number of transportation modes and predictor variables. This study proposes a logit‐ANN ensemble for mode choice modeling and investigates its efficiency in different situations. Travel between Khobar‐Dammam metropolitan area of Saudi Arabia and Kingdom of Bahrain is selected for mode choice modeling. The travel on this route can be performed mainly by air travel or private vehicle through King Fahd causeway. The results show that the proposed ensemble gives consistently better accuracies than single models for multinomial choice problems irrespective of number of input variables. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A nested recursive logit model for route choice analysis

We propose a route choice model that relaxes the independence from irrelevant alternatives property of the logit model by allowing scale parameters to be link specific. Similar to the recursive logit (RL) model proposed by Fosgerau et al. (2013), the choice of path is modeled as a sequence of link choices and the model does not require any sampling of choice sets. Furthermore, the model can be consistently estimated and efficiently used for prediction.A key challenge lies in the computation of the value functions, i.e. the expected maximum utility from any position in the network to a destination. The value functions are the solution to a system of non-linear equations. We propose an iterative method with dynamic accuracy that allows to efficiently solve these systems.We report estimation results and a cross-validation study for a real network. The results show that the NRL model yields sensible parameter estimates and the fit is significantly better than the RL model. Moreover, the NRL model outperforms the RL model in terms of prediction.     

The relationship between land use and automobile travel utility: A Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes approach

The relationship between land use and the utility of automobile travel is examined by refining the utility concept, particularly by combining the microeconomic utility theory, which is concerned with the disutility of travel, and the perspective on the positive utility. A conceptual model is accordingly developed and then adjusted considering different purposes of travel. The purpose-specific models are tested through a Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes approach in Seoul, Korea, using datasets from a sample survey and geographic information systems. The major finding is that land use affects the utility mainly by changing synergy and affective utility rather than instrumental utility, which encompasses disutility variables. Among land use variables, the utility is found to be the most sensitive to the number of transit facilities for commuting and shopping travel and land use balance for leisure travel.     

Identification of emission hotspots in roundabouts corridors

This study describes a methodology to quantify and characterize the vehicular emissions of functionally interdependent roundabouts at a corridor level. Corridor segments include those upstream of each roundabout, the circulating area, downstream of the roundabout as well as midblock sub-segments between adjacent roundabouts. The main purpose of the study is to identify the locations along the corridors where emissions tend to be consistently high. These locations are termed “Emission Hotspots”. The methodology is applied to four existing roundabout corridors in San Diego (California) and Avon (Colorado) in the United States, and in Mealhada and Chaves (Portugal). An extensive sample of second-by-second speed traces is available for these four corridors with roundabouts.The analysis shows that when roundabouts are fairly spaced and have similar geometric design features, no significant differences are observed between emissions of roundabouts located in the corridor. In such cases, the downstream sub-segments are the emission hotspots both in absolute terms (overall contribution on total emissions is higher than 34%) and per unit distance (22% higher than the average corridor value). When roundabouts are unequally spaced the highest emissions hotspots (more than 9% above the average corridor value) are found at the circulating area sub-segments. The results also demonstrate that the entry deflection angle has a slight impact on the spatial distribution of emissions especially in the case of closely spaced roundabouts.     

基于BIM的铁路路基三维建模方法研究

对基于Bentley平台的铁路路基三维建模方法展开探索和研究:(1)对路基建模方法的研究现状进行总结,认为基于网格和参数化的建模方法较为适用。(2)根据路基结构的造型特点,将路基结构物分为线状构造物和不连续构造物。(3)连续线状构造物建模主要分两步,一是通过编辑横断面构建路基骨架,二是采用放样、拉伸横断面的方式构建路基网格模型,再通过三维可视化检查模型的合理性。(4)对于不连续构造物,如挡土墙、地基处理桩等构件,应采用参数化的建模方法。     

Analysis of telecommuting behavior and impacts on travel demand and the environment

The discussion of whether, and to what extent, telecommuting can curb congestion in urban areas has spanned more than three decades. This study develops an integrated framework to provide the empirical evidence of the potential impacts of home-based telecommuting on travel behavior, network congestion, and air quality. In the first step, we estimate a telecommuting adoption model using a zero-inflated hierarchical ordered probit model to determine the factors associated with workers’ propensity to adopt telecommuting. Second, we implement the estimated model in the POLARIS activity-based framework to simulate the potential changes in workers’ activity-travel patterns and network congestion. Third, the MOVES mobile source emission simulator and Autonomie vehicle energy simulator are used to estimate the potential changes in vehicular emissions and fuel use in the network as a result of this policy. Different policy adoption scenarios are then tested in the proposed integrated platform. We found that compared to the current baseline situation where almost 12% of workers in Chicago region have flexible working time schedule, in the case when 50% of workers have flexible working time, telecommuting can reduce total daily vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and vehicle hours traveled (VHT) up to 0.69% and 2.09%, respectively. Considering the same comparison settings, this policy has the potential to reduce greenhouse gas and particulate matter emissions by up to 0.71% and 1.14%, respectively. In summary, our results endorse the fact that telecommuting policy has the potential to reduce network congestion and vehicular emissions specifically during rush hours.