Method for investigating intradriver heterogeneity using vehicle trajectory data: A Dynamic Time Warping approach

After first extending Newell’s car-following model to incorporate time-dependent parameters, this paper describes the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) algorithm and its application for calibrating this microscopic simulation model by synthesizing driver trajectory data. Using the unique capabilities of the DTW algorithm, this paper attempts to examine driver heterogeneity in car-following behavior, as well as the driver’s heterogeneous situation-dependent behavior within a trip, based on the calibrated time-varying response times and critical jam spacing. The standard DTW algorithm is enhanced to address a number of estimation challenges in this specific application, and a numerical experiment is presented with vehicle trajectory data extracted from the Next Generation Simulation (NGSIM) project for demonstration purposes. The DTW algorithm is shown to be a reasonable method for processing large vehicle trajectory datasets, but requires significant data reduction to produce reasonable results when working with high resolution vehicle trajectory data. Additionally, singularities present an interesting match solution set to potentially help identify changing driver behavior; however, they must be avoided to reduce analysis complexity.     

Is awareness of public charging associated with consumer interest in plug-in electric vehicles?

Policymakers often seek to increase the visibility of plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) chargers in public locations in effort to build familiarity and interest in PEVs. However, it is not clear if the visibility of public charging stations actually has an impact on PEV demand. The purposes of the present study are to (1) assess the current levels of visibility for public PEV charging infrastructure within Canada and (2) identify whether or not a statistically significant relationship exists between consumer awareness of public charging infrastructure and interest in purchasing a PEV. We use data collected from a sample of 1739 Canadian new-vehicle buyers in 2013. About 18% of Canadian respondents have seen at least one public charger, while the proportion is highest in British Columbia (31%). We find a significant bivariate relationship between public charger awareness and PEV interest. However, when controlling for multiple explanatory variables in regression analyses, the relationship is weak or non-existent. While perceived existence of at least one charger exhibits no significant relationship with PEV interest, perceived existence of multiple chargers can have a weak but significant relationship. Thus, public charger awareness is not a strong predictor of PEV interest; other variables are more important, such as the availability of level 1 (110/120-volt) charging at home.     

Market dynamics and indirect network effects in electric vehicle diffusion

The diffusion of electric vehicles (EVs) is studied in a two-sided market framework consisting of EVs on the one side and EV charging stations (EVCSs) on the other. A sequential game is introduced as a model for the interactions between an EVCS investor and EV consumers. A consumer chooses to purchase an EV or a conventional gasoline alternative based on the upfront costs of purchase, the future operating costs, and the availability of charging stations. The investor, on the other hand, maximizes his profit by deciding whether to build charging facilities at a set of potential EVCS sites or to defer his investments.The solution of the sequential game characterizes the EV-EVCS market equilibrium. The market solution is compared with that of a social planner who invests in EVCSs with the goal of maximizing the social welfare. It is shown that the market solution underinvests EVCSs, leading to slower EV diffusion. The effects of subsidies for EV purchase and EVCSs are also considered.     

Routing aspects of electric vehicle drivers and their effects on network performance

This study investigates the routing aspects of battery electric vehicle (BEV) drivers and their effects on the overall traffic network performance. BEVs have unique characteristics such as range limitation, long battery recharging time, and recuperation of energy lost during the deceleration phase if equipped with regenerative braking system (RBS). In addition, the energy consumption rate per unit distance traveled is lower at moderate speed than at higher speed. This raises two interesting questions: (i) whether these characteristics of BEVs will lead to different route selection compared to conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), and (ii) whether such route selection implications of BEVs will affect the network performance. With the increasing market penetration of BEVs, these questions are becoming more important. This study formulates a multi-class dynamic user equilibrium (MCDUE) model to determine the equilibrium flows for mixed traffic consisting of BEVs and ICEVs. A simulation-based solution procedure is proposed for the MCDUE model. In the MCDUE model, BEVs select routes to minimize the generalized cost which includes route travel time, energy related costs and range anxiety cost, and ICEVs to minimize route travel time. Results from numerical experiments illustrate that BEV drivers select routes with lower speed to conserve and recuperate battery energy while ICEV drivers select shortest travel time routes. They also illustrate that the differences in route choice behavior of BEV and ICEV drivers can synergistically lead to reduction in total travel time and the network performance towards system optimum under certain conditions.     

How might potential future plug-in electric vehicle buyers differ from current “Pioneer” owners?

The entry of various plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) into the passenger vehicle sector provides novel opportunities to learn about the potential for future PEV markets. However, early PEV buyers (or “Pioneers”) can substantially differ from present conventional vehicle owners that have interest in purchasing PEVs in the future (or the “Potential Early Mainstream buyers”). To compare the characteristics, preferences, and motivations of Pioneers and Potential Early Mainstream buyers, we draw data from the Canadian Plug-in Electric Vehicle Study, a three-part mixed-mode survey with samples of PEV owners (n = 94) and conventional new vehicle buyers (n = 1754). We identify several significant differences in household characteristics, including income, education, and recharge access. In terms of preferences, Pioneers express extremely high valuation of PEVs and prefer pure battery electric vehicle (BEV) designs over plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV) designs. In contrast, Potential Early Mainstream respondents prefer PHEVs. Both Pioneer and Potential Early Mainstream respondents are similarly cautious about controlled charging programs, but Pioneers place five times as much value on using electricity generated from renewable sources than the Potential Early Mainstream. Pioneers also tend to have different motivations, including significantly higher levels of environmental concern, and higher engagement in environment- and technology-oriented lifestyles. Policymakers, automakers, and electric utilities that anticipate a transition to electric mobility ought to consider how potential future PEV buyers may differ in their vehicle preferences, usage and motivations relative to current PEV owners.     

右转车辆穿越行人流的延误模型

根据行人流随机消散和集中消散的不同特征, 应用随机分布理论推导出右转车辆穿越行人流的两类延误模型, 分析了车辆穿越过程的延误特征。应用Vissim仿真软件对右转车辆穿越行人流进行模拟, 并对比了仿真延误与模型计算延误。分析结果表明: 当行人集中消散时长为10 s, 随机消散时长为15 s, 各排行人的时距为5 s, 行人流量达到1 100人.h^-1时, 才产生0.2 s的误差, 可见, 该延误模型可行。     

考虑风险规避和认知更新的日常择路行为演进

为了刻画出行者的日常择路行为, 利用动力学系统方法和不动点理论, 建立了一个集成风险规避和认知更新的演化模型, 分析了演化过程的稳定性, 并在一个简单网络上进行了验证。发现在模拟开始的前15 d内, 出行时间预算、路径期望出行时间、实际出行时间以及路径流量都出现了较大的波动, 但经过大约30 d的摸索以后, 开始趋向于随机用户均衡状态。分析结果表明: 模型所设计的择路演化过程类似于经典的相继平均算法的计算过程, 可以确保收敛到稳定状态, 并与初始状态参数的取值无关。     

软土地区桩柱式路基力学行为的数值模拟

以快速拉格朗日有限差分法程序FLAC为平台, 建立软土地区桩柱式路基的数值分析模型, 研究了桩柱式路基的力学行为。分别用桩单元、绳索单元模拟桩柱、筋材, 分析了路基的沉降、侧移、孔压与稳定特性, 及桩柱、筋材的内力分布, 比较了桩柱式路基与传统土石方路基的特点, 对桩柱、筋材、路堤与地基的设计参数对路基沉降和地基侧移的影响进行敏感性分析。分析结果表明, 桩柱式路基表面的最大沉降、差异沉降仅为传统土石方路基的1.48%、1.40%, 地基侧移仅为传统土石方路基的0.88%, 因此, 桩柱式路基力学行为优良。     

开孔板连接件抗剪性能试验研究

开孔板连接件是用于钢与混凝土结合的新型连接件,具有很大的抗剪刚度、强度及抗疲劳性能。对开孔板连接件分别处于正立、侧立、倒立,及其有无贯通钢筋进行抗剪性能试验研究,得到设置贯通钢筋可以大幅度提高抗剪承载力和延性,所处受力状态不同对抗剪刚度和使用阶段承载力影响较大,但对极限承载力影响并不明显等结果。     

基于延续算法的六轴机车蛇形运动分岔分析

以六轴机车系统为研究对象, 采用Vermeulen-Johnson蠕滑理论和一分段线性函数分别计算轮轨滚动接触蠕滑力和轮缘力, 研究了机车系统运行于理想平直轨道上的蛇形运动分岔问题。将基于切向量进行预测、牛顿迭代进行校正、可逐步求解整个系统解分支曲线的延续算法应用于机车系统的Hopf分岔及周期解的追踪和求解。计算结果表明: 车辆系统在速度达到53.700m.s-1时, 从稳定的定常解分岔出一不稳定的周期解, 该周期解在速度降到50.855m.s-1时又恢复了稳定, 在此过程中出现的亚临界Hopf分岔会引起系统摆振幅值出现突跳与迟滞现象; 在低速及高速情况下的一些速度区间, 机车系统都有可能出现多种摆振形式共存的非线性动力学现象。