公路客运枢纽影响区域内交通组织研究

引入服务水平的变化计算公路客运枢纽交通影响区域的定量方法,结合公路客运枢纽的特点,探讨影响区域内的交通组织方法,包括场站周边路网配置、邻近交叉口设计和场站出入口设置方法。     

Joint leisure travel optimization with user-generated data via perceived utility maximization

The lack of personalized solutions for managing the demand of joint leisure trips in cities in real time hinders the optimization of transportation system operations. Joint leisure activities can account for up to 60% of trips in cities and unlike fixed trips (i.e., trips to work where the arrival time and the trip destination are predefined), leisure activities offer more optimization flexibility since the activity destination and the arrival times of individuals can vary.To address this problem, a perceived utility model derived from non-traditional data such as smartphones/social media for representing users’ willingness to travel a certain distance for participating in leisure activities at different times of day is presented. Then, a stochastic annealing search method for addressing the exponential complexity optimization problem is introduced. The stochastic annealing method suggests the preferred location of a joint leisure activity and the arrival times of individuals based on the users’ preferences derived from the perceived utility model. Test-case implementations of the approach used 14-month social media data from London and showcased an increase of up to 3 times at individuals’ satisfaction while the computational complexity is reduced to almost linear time serving the real-time implementation requirements.     

A dynamic linear model for the estimation of time‐varying origin–destination matrices from link counts

We propose a dynamic linear model (DLM) for the estimation of day‐to‐day time‐varying origin–destination (OD) matrices from link counts. Mean OD flows are assumed to vary over time as a locally constant model. We take into account variability in OD flows, route flows, and link volumes. Given a time series of observed link volumes, sequential Bayesian inference is applied in order to estimate mean OD flows. The conditions under which mean OD flows may be estimated are established, and computational studies on two benchmark transportation networks from the literature are carried out. In both cases, the DLM converged to the unobserved mean OD flows when given sufficient observations of traffic link volumes despite assuming uninformative prior OD matrices. We discuss limitations and extensions of the proposed DLM. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A dynamic behavioural traffic assignment model with strategic agents

Foresee traffic conditions and demand is a major issue nowadays that is very often approached using simulation tools. The aim of this work is to propose an innovative strategy to tackle such problem, relying on the presentation and analysis of a behavioural dynamic traffic assignment.The proposal relies on the assumption that travellers take routing policies rather than paths, leading us to introduce the possibility for each simulated agent to apply, in real time, a strategy allowing him to possibly re-route his path depending on the perceived local traffic conditions, jam and/or time already spent in his journey.The re-routing process allows the agents to directly react to any change in the road network. For the sake of simplicity, the agents’ strategy is modelled with a simple neural network whose parameters are determined during a preliminary training stage. The inputs of such neural network read the local information about the route network and the output gives the action to undertake: stay on the same path or modify it. As the agents use only local information, the overall network topology does not really matter, thus the strategy is able to cope with large and not previously explored networks.Numerical experiments are performed on various scenarios containing different proportions of trained strategic agents, agents with random strategies and non strategic agents, to test the robustness and adaptability to new environments and varying network conditions. The methodology is also compared against existing approaches and real world data. The outcome of the experiments suggest that this work-in-progress already produces encouraging results in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency. This indicates that the proposed approach has the potential to provide better tools to investigate and forecast drivers’ choice behaviours. Eventually these tools can improve the delivery and efficiency of traffic information to the drivers.     

Forecasting short-term subway passenger flow under special events scenarios using multiscale radial basis function networks

Reliable and accurate short-term subway passenger flow prediction is important for passengers, transit operators, and public agencies. Traditional studies focus on regular demand forecasting and have inherent disadvantages in predicting passenger flows under special events scenarios. These special events may have a disruptive impact on public transportation systems, and should thus be given more attention for proactive management and timely information dissemination. This study proposes a novel multiscale radial basis function (MSRBF) network for forecasting the irregular fluctuation of subway passenger flows. This model is simplified using a matching pursuit orthogonal least squares algorithm through the selection of significant model terms to produce a parsimonious MSRBF model. Combined with transit smart card data, this approach not only exhibits superior predictive performance over prevailing computational intelligence methods for non-regular demand forecasting at least 30 min prior, but also leverages network knowledge to enhance prediction capability and pinpoint vulnerable subway stations for crowd control measures. Three empirical studies with special events in Beijing demonstrate that the proposed algorithm can effectively predict the emergence of passenger flow bursts.     

基于贝叶斯网络的高铁信号系统车载设备故障诊断方法的研究

考虑到高铁车载设备故障诊断的不确定性和复杂性,本文提出了基于贝叶斯网络的车载设备故障诊断系统。在建立贝叶斯网络结构的过程中,基于充分利用现场数据与先验知识的思想,本文通过融合不同方法(K2算法,MCMC算法和专家知识)得到最优的贝叶斯网络结构。最后,本文进行了实例分析与模型验证,并与KNN算法、BP神经网络算法进行比较,测试结果表明该模型的正确性和有效性。文中的验证数据来自武广高铁车载设备故障追踪表。     

高速列车横向振动自适应神经模糊控制的仿真

为了设计出智能的列车悬挂系统,提出了基于神经网络的自适应模糊控制。模糊控制主要是针对系统的非线性;神经网络控制是产生模糊控制的控制规则。通过自适应神经网络的模糊推理系统(ANFIS),把神经网络和模糊控制相结合。神经网络根据采集的数据来进行训练,产生不同的控制规则,使模糊控制器对路面的变化具有自适应能力。仿真结果表明:该方法可在一定程度上减少轨道对列车车身的振动,提高列车在路面行驶的平稳性。     

一种雷达辐射源信号分选新方法

提出一种基于小波与神经网络联合分析的雷达辐射源信号分选新方法.该方法首先对接收到的雷达信号进行小波去噪,达到提高信噪比的目的,然后利用小波脊线法准确提取其脉内特征参数,最后基于神经网络实现信号的分选.计算机仿真结果表明,较现有方法,该方法在较低的信噪比情况下,可以更准确地实现雷达辐射源信号的分选.     

适于前馈神经网络的LM-QuasiNewton综合学习新方法

为实时解决神经网络学习过程中可能遇到的大残量时的收敛问题，将LM算法与Quasi Newton优化算法结合，构建了一种综合学习算法(LM-QuasiNewton算法)．仿真算例表明，该算法较好地解决了残量问题，收敛性与稳定性优于其它权值算法．合学习算法．仿真实例表明，该算法较好地解决了残量问题，在收敛性与稳定性方面优于其它权值算法。     

现代潜艇铅酸蓄电池放电模型研究

铅酸蓄电池是常规潜艇水下航行的核心动力，为优化动力系统工作性能，需要建立放电模型．在分析蓄电池放电特点的基础上，提出了建模需要解决的若干问题和神经网络的方法．基于前馈神经网络，模拟了任意放电率下的恒流放电规律．利用插值法、积分和坐标变换等方法，得到了蓄电池恒功率放电模型，解决了端电压、放电电流变化规律、放电起始点和放电率计算等同题．潜艇续航力核算表明所建立的放电模型可行。