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71.
J.F. Shriver H.E. Hurlburt O.M. Smedstad A.J. Wallcraft R.C. Rhodes 《Journal of Marine Systems》2007,65(1-4):3
A 1/32° global ocean nowcast/forecast system has been developed by the Naval Research Laboratory at the Stennis Space Center. It started running at the Naval Oceanographic Office in near real-time on 1 Nov. 2003 and has been running daily in real-time since 1 Mar. 2005. It became an operational system on 6 March 2006, replacing the existing 1/16° system which ceased operation on 12 March 2006. Both systems use the NRL Layered Ocean Model (NLOM) with assimilation of sea surface height from satellite altimeters and sea surface temperature from multi-channel satellite infrared radiometers. Real-time and archived results are available online at http://www.ocean.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom. The 1/32° system has improvements over the earlier system that can be grouped into two categories: (1) better resolution and representation of dynamical processes and (2) design modifications. The design modifications are the result of accrued knowledge since the development of the earlier 1/16° system. The improved horizontal resolution of the 1/32° system has significant dynamical benefits which increase the ability of the model to accurately nowcast and skillfully forecast. At the finer resolution, current pathways and their transports become more accurate, the sea surface height (SSH) variability increases and becomes more realistic and even the global ocean circulation experiences some changes (including inter-basin exchange). These improvements make the 1/32° system a better dynamical interpolator of assimilated satellite altimeter track data, using a one-day model forecast as the first guess. The result is quantitatively more accurate nowcasts, as is illustrated by several model-data comparisons. Based on comparisons with ocean color imagery in the northwestern Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman, the 1/32° system has even demonstrated the ability to map small eddies, 25–75 km in diameter, with 70% reliability and a median eddy center location error of 22.5 km, a surprising and unanticipated result from assimilation of altimeter track data. For all of the eddies (50% small eddies), the reliability was 80% and the median eddy center location error was 29 km. The 1/32° system also exhibits improved forecast skill in relation to the 1/16° system. This is due to (a) a more accurate initial condition for the forecast and (b) better resolution and representation of critical dynamical processes (such as upper ocean – topographic coupling via mesoscale flow instabilities) which allow the model to more accurately evolve these features in time while running in forecast mode (forecast atmospheric forcing for the first 5 days, then gradually reverting toward climatology for the remainder of the 30-day forecast period). At 1/32° resolution, forecast SSH generally compares better with unassimilated observations and the anomaly correlation of the forecast SSH exceeds that from persistence by a larger amount than found in the 1/16° system. 相似文献
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水文资料在各阶段的使用当中越来越被重视,其合理性和真实性也是越来越严格。本文在分析水文资料实行一算二校、分局审查、省局汇审等环节的可靠性基础上,通过各阶段的错误率建立一灰色预测模型,提出了各阶段可控的错误率白化值及预测值,为科学、客观地评估各阶段水文资料校审质量提供了理论依据。 相似文献
73.
在二阶BP神经网络基础上加以改进,提出一种快速二阶BP神经网络,并将把该方法成功地用于公路交通量的预测中,通过与其它方法的比较分析,得出快速二阶BP神经网络预测方法加快了收敛速度,提高了结果的准确度,为科学地预测公路交通量提供了有力依据。 相似文献
74.
利用基础分析法,借助时间序列回归预测等技术手段对太平洋航线东西航线的运量和运力做了合理的预测,可为船公司进行战略调整和决策提供一定的依据。 相似文献
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高地应力软弱围岩变形控制方法 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
研究目的:探讨高地应力软弱围岩大变形的控制方法,并通过具体施工应用,进行现场监控量测试验验证。研究方法:结合乌鞘岭特长隧道最大断层---F7断层高地应力软弱围岩的地质特征及其变形特征,简要分析了支护临界失效点,围岩质量、允许变形量、变形速率和运输方式等与工序间距离的关系,具体从地质超前预报、隧道支护结构和施工方法三个方面进行探讨。研究结果:得出了高地应力软弱围岩围岩条件下,隧道施工支护参数与工序间距离确定的基本方法、一些经验参数和施工基本要求,并对施工中应注意的事项提出了建议措施。研究结论:在高地应力软弱围岩条件下进行施工,要根据掌子面围岩变化情况及时适当地调整支护参数和施工方法,才能有效地控制变形。 相似文献
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该文从深圳市原有的高快速路网体系的实际出发,结合坪盐通道的规划研究方案,对新增加快速通道规划研究需要注意的若干问题进行了探讨,为完善城市高快速路网体系提供参考。 相似文献
80.
利用断裂力学方法对冷再生基层材料的疲劳裂纹扩展进行分析,选择合适的断裂力学公式及参数,进而推导出疲劳寿命预估方程,分析方程中参数的取值并给出算例.通过算例得到的结果对影响疲劳寿命的因素进行分析,并与通过试验得到的数据进行对比.结果表明,用断裂力学方法预测含裂缝冷再生基层材料的疲劳寿命更合理. 相似文献