Stochastic frontier estimation of budgets for Kuhn–Tucker demand systems: Application to activity time-use analysis

We propose a stochastic frontier approach to estimate budgets for the multiple discrete–continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model. The approach is useful when the underlying time and/or money budgets driving a choice situation are unobserved, but the expenditures on the choice alternatives of interest are observed. Several MDCEV applications hitherto used the observed total expenditure on the choice alternatives as the budget to model expenditure allocation among choice alternatives. This does not allow for increases or decreases in the total expenditure due to changes in choice alternative-specific attributes, but only allows a reallocation of the observed total expenditure among different alternatives. The stochastic frontier approach helps address this issue by invoking the notion that consumers operate under latent budgets that can be conceived (and modeled) as the maximum possible expenditure they are willing to incur. The proposed method is applied to analyze the daily out-of-home activity participation and time-use patterns in a survey sample of non-working adults in Florida. First, a stochastic frontier regression is performed on the observed out-of-home activity time expenditure (OH-ATE) to estimate the unobserved out-of-home activity time frontier (OH-ATF). The estimated frontier is interpreted as a subjective limit or maximum possible time individuals can allocate to out-of-home activities and used as the time budget governing out-of-home time-use choices in an MDCEV model. The efficacy of this approach is compared with other approaches for estimating time budgets for the MDCEV model, including: (a) a log-linear regression on the total observed expenditure for out-of-home activities and (b) arbitrarily assumed, constant time budgets for all individuals in the sample. A comparison of predictive accuracy in time-use patterns suggests that the stochastic frontier and log-linear regression approaches perform better than arbitrary assumptions on time budgets. Between the stochastic frontier and log-linear regression approaches, the former results in slightly better predictions of activity participation rates while the latter results in slightly better predictions of activity durations. A comparison of policy simulations demonstrates that the stochastic frontier approach allows for the total out-of-home activity time expenditure to either expand or shrink due to changes in alternative-specific attributes. The log-linear regression approach allows for changes in total time expenditure due to changes in decision-maker attributes, but not due to changes in alternative-specific attributes.     

Development of origin–destination matrices using mobile phone call data

In this research, we propose a methodology to develop OD matrices using mobile phone Call Detail Records (CDR) and limited traffic counts. CDR, which consist of time stamped tower locations with caller IDs, are analyzed first and trips occurring within certain time windows are used to generate tower-to-tower transient OD matrices for different time periods. These are then associated with corresponding nodes of the traffic network and converted to node-to-node transient OD matrices. The actual OD matrices are derived by scaling up these node-to-node transient OD matrices. An optimization based approach, in conjunction with a microscopic traffic simulation platform, is used to determine the scaling factors that result best matches with the observed traffic counts. The methodology is demonstrated using CDR from 2.87 million users of Dhaka, Bangladesh over a month and traffic counts from 13 key locations over 3 days of that month. The applicability of the methodology is supported by a validation study.     

Empirical analysis of heterogeneous traffic flow and calibration of porous flow model

Heterogeneous traffic flow, characterized by a free inter-lane exchange, has become an important issue in addressing congestion in urban areas. It is of particular interest in many developing countries, that experience a strong increase in motorcycle use. New approaches to the heterogeneous non-lane-based flow have been proposed. However insufficient empirical verification has been made to estimate vehicle interaction, that is necessary for an accurate representation of mixed-flow conditions. In this paper, we focus on the porous flow approach to capture the complex interactions. The parameters from this approach are estimated from empirical observations. Video data was recorded and processed to capture vehicle interactions at a number of road sections in Surabaya City, Indonesia. The specific behavior of each vehicle in the traffic flow was captured by developing the pore size–density distributions, analyzing the class-specific critical pore sizes, and producing the class specific speed–density and flow–density diagrams. The results reveal how critical pore sizes are based on pore size–density distributions, the flow diagram for each vehicle class, and how traffic flow relationships for motorcyclists and the other vehicles exhibit significant differences. It is concluded that the proposed approach can represent the specific behavior of the motorcyclist in heterogeneous traffic flow, in both the situations of with- and without an exclusive lane for motorcycles, can clarify motorcyclist’s behavior in terms of passenger car unit of motorcycle, and can therefore support policy making on the improvement of urban transport.     

Methodology for Validating Dynamic Origin–Destination Matrix Estimation Models with Implications for Advanced Traveler Information Systems

This paper describes a methodology for validating online dynamic O–D matrix estimation models using loop detector data in large-scale transportation networks. The simulation procedure focuses on travel aspects related to the collective trip structure of users, including the amount and duration of trips between O–D pairs, trip departure rates, average travel time from each origin and combinations of them. The analysis identifies emerging systematic patterns between these factors and issues related to the model performance, including network scale effects. This procedure aims to enhance the usage of prior O–D information based on, e.g. travel surveys, that are typically used in the estimation process. Moreover, it seeks to integrate the validation of dynamic O–D matrix estimation models with strategies for identifying target population groups for online planning and assessment of real-time travel information services within the context of Advanced Traveler Information Systems (ATIS).     

Study of collision characteristics of water-filled double-layer structure

Water-filled double-layer structures are typical hull structures. However, the effect of the carried water has often been neglected in previous collision studies. The carried water couples with the hull structure and participates in the energy absorption process, which reduces the collision damage done to the hull structure. This paper focuses on the effects of compressible carried water on the collision characteristics of a hull structure. Therefore, collision experiments with a simplified double-layer structure (water tank) were performed, and the corresponding collision process was simulated with the finite-element method. The two kinds of pressure (a shock wave and pressure disturbance) generated in the carried water when the water tank collides with a striker were investigated. By comparing the dynamic characteristics of empty and completely filled water tanks, it can be observed that the pressure of the carried water can reduce the displacement of the outer plate and change its deformation shape. Furthermore, the effects of pressure on the collision force and displacement of the inner plate were investigated. Finally, the collision characteristics of a typical water-filled side structure are presented as an example.     

Strain rate sensitive steel constitutive models for finite element analysis of vessel-structure impacts

Civil infrastructure systems such as bridge piers, navigational guide walls, and protection structures that are located near navigable waterways are inherently at risk for being impacted by cargo vessels such as barges and ships. To safely design such systems to possess adequate vessel impact resistance, structural loads associated with potential vessel-structure collision conditions must be quantified in a conservative manner. While high-resolution finite element impact simulations may be employed to compute such loads, care must be exercised in defining the material characteristics of the vessel if conservative structural design loads are to be obtained. Importantly, constitutive relationships assigned to steel components in the vessel model must be capable of accounting for strain rate sensitivities and large-scale plastic deformations.In the present study, strain rate sensitive constitutive models were developed for two types of steel commonly utilized in marine construction in the United States—ASTM A36 and ASTM A1011. Tension tests were conducted over a wide range of strain rates (7.00 × 10⁻⁵ s⁻¹ – 250 s⁻¹) spanning from quasi-static to intermediate and high rates that are typically associated with vessel-structure impact events. A novel testing apparatus—employing an impact pendulum as an energy supply mechanism—was designed for this study to conduct intermediate to high-rate material testing. Features of the apparatus, discussed in this paper, overcome key problems encountered in other studies that have employed impact loading for tensile material testing. From the testing program, representative stress–strain relations and Cowper–Symonds strain rate sensitivity parameters were developed for the materials tested. Rate sensitivities of the two steel grades tested were found to be very similar to each other. Additionally, rate sensitivities from the present study agreed well with ultimate stress data measured in past studies of mild steel, but were found to be less rate-sensitive than yield stress data measured in past studies.     

弹塑性变形中的弹性效应

由于数学上的困难,弹塑性问题分析中一般忽略弹性变形.而且,求解时对本构方程的一些简化方法如不可压缩假设等被广泛采用.本文分析了一种比拟解答的优点和其在某些方面的改进,并以平面应变下的弹塑性单元体为例,详细计算和分析了不同应力状态下弹塑性变形过程中的弹性效应.     

On the sway stability improvement of car–caravan systems by articulated connections

The present analysis is addressed to some promising connection arrangements between the towing vehicles and the towed trailers, where the two units are linked by four-bar isosceles trapeziums in place of the conventional pintle hitch. Two types of instability, of the divergent type or the oscillating type, may be analysed by the Routh–Hurwitz criterion or by the direct analysis of the characteristic equation. The constant term of this equation vanishes at the divergent instability threshold (zero of a real root), whereas the equation splits into two lower degree algebraic ‘sub-equations’ when the oscillating instability arises (pair of pure imaginary roots). A large field of geometrical configurations of the four-bar linkage may be quickly tested by numerical search procedures, including those where the sidebars of the linkage converge towards the inside of the drawing car and shift the relative centre of rotation forward, and those converging backward towards the trailer. Maps of the critical velocity as a function of the geometrical or physical parameters may be easily traced. They clearly show the favourable influence of the forward four-bar connection in general and the benefits achievable comparing with the conventional coupling. Actually, it is conceivable to increase the critical speed by optimising the four-bar design depending on the weight distribution on the axles and on the other geometrical and physical properties. Moreover, this type of connection may produce significant corrections to the under-steering or over-steering conduct of the articulated vehicle. The off-tracking and the manoeuvrability along curved paths are also studied, showing the benefits or the drawbacks of the four-bar linkage for the various configurations.     

Lane-keeping benefits of practical rear axle steer

The classic two-degree-of-freedom yaw-plane or ‘bicycle’ vehicle model is augmented with two additional states to describe lane-keeping behaviour and further augmented with an additional control input to steer the rear axle. A simple driver model is hypothesised where the driver closes a loop on a projected lateral lane position. The driver can select the preview distance to compensate driver/vehicle dynamics, consistent with the ‘cross-over’ model found in the literature. A rear axle steer control law is found to be a function of the front axle steering input and vehicle speed that exhibits stability similar to a positive-real system, while at the same time improving the ability of the driver/vehicle system to track a complex curved lane and improving steady-state manoeuvrability. The theoretically derived control law bears similarity to practical embodiments allowing a deeper understanding of the functional value of steering a rear axle.