The value of options for time charterparty extension: an artificial neural networks (ANN) approach

The most frequently associated options in the physical shipping market are options to extend the charter period on time charters and additional shipment options on contracts of affreightment. The value of freight options, in practice, is estimated mostly by referring to forward curves. An option on freight has different properties from its financial counterparts, and the straightforward adoption of theoretical models does not produce promising results. In this paper, extension options, which have the property of options on futures, were transformed into regular European options before the application of the Black-Scholes model (BSM). The efficient market hypothesis, which justifies the parity of the performance of a long-term charter to that of repetitive short-term charters, worked as the basis for the transformation. The option values determined by the BSM were compared with actual realized values. Additionally, the artificial neural networks (ANN) was employed to derive the option values. This study is meaningful as the first-time application of both the closed-form solution and the ANN to the valuation of physical freight options. The research results can contribute to the quality of chartering decisions. The results could also be used in quantifying credit risk, as extension options tend to be granted to charterers with more creditability.     

液化天然气B型独立液货舱结构低周疲劳研究

基于某B型独立液货舱为研究对象,开展液化天然气(LNG)船码头装卸货工况下的结构应力和温度场热应力分析,重点针对液货舱水平强框处连接节点计算其因装卸货受力和温度变化所引起的疲劳累积损伤。研究结果表明,部分研究疲劳节点由装卸货产生的低周疲劳损伤在整个结构疲劳累积损伤中的占比较大,对结构疲劳损伤起主导作用,需要在液货舱疲劳强度分析中予以重点关注。因此,对此类B型独立液货舱进行结构设计必须考虑低周疲劳的影响。     

随机风浪下的游艇稳性可靠度计算

建立游艇横摇运动微分方程,利用马尔科夫过程理论和路径积分法进行求解,得到游艇横摇角概率密度函数。借鉴结构可靠性计算方法建立游艇稳性概率计算模型,采用当量正态化法(JC法)求解得到游艇稳性可靠度。实例计算表明:游艇在不同海域下的稳性可靠度存在一定差异,随着外界风浪增大,游艇稳性可靠度呈逐步下降趋势,且都存在一个快速下降的波高区间。该方法能够更科学地评判游艇在不同航行条件下的稳性状况,是游艇稳性横准研究的发展方向之一。     

Mechanism of Tunnel Water Inflow Caused by Bending Failure of a Waterproof Dike Based on a Circular Thin Plate Mechanical Model北大核心CSCD

Water bursts during tunnel construction endanger construction, and it is therefore necessary to reserve a waterproof dike with the required thickness to avoid water bursts and to take reinforcement of the dike and treatment of the structure liable to trigger a water burst. Using the water burst at K5+398 of the Mingyueshan tunnel of the Shanghai-Chengdu expressway as an example, and considering the type of tunnel section and the upright mudstone of the dike, the waterproof dike at the work face is simplified as a round thin plate. A formula for the calculation of a minimum safety thickness for the critical waterproof dike is deduced by analyzing the force applied on the water-proof dike, and the minimum safety thickness for the water burst section at K5+398 of the Mingyueshan tunnel is cal-culated. The numerical simulation analysis demonstrates the critical thickness of waterproof dike at K5+398 of the Mingyueshan tunnel is 1.4-1.55 m, and the calculated water inflow and water burst basically agree with the actual condition. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.     

Analysis of the Circulation System of a Slurry Shield and the Muck Carrying Ability of a Dredging Pipe北大核心CSCD

The circulation system of a slurry shield is composed of a transportation system and a processing system.For shield construction, correct selection of the circulation system for the slurry shield is directly related to construc-tion speed. Using the Nanjing Yangtze tunnel as an example, the material balance calculation of the circulation sys-tem, sieving effect analysis, and analysis of the muck carrying ability of the dredging pipe are conducted for various strata. The practical results show that above mentioned calculations and analysis method provide a good reference for the proper selection of a slurry separation system and dredge pipe. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.     

Assessing the impact of reduced visibility on traffic crash risk using microscopic data and surrogate safety measures

Due to the difficulty of obtaining accurate real-time visibility and vehicle based traffic data at the same time, there are only few research studies that addressed the impact of reduced visibility on traffic crash risk. This research was conducted based on a new visibility detection system by mounting visibility sensor arrays combined with adaptive learning modules to provide more accurate visibility detections. The vehicle-based detector, Wavetronix SmartSensor HD, was installed at the same place to collect traffic data. Reduced visibility due to fog were selected and analyzed by comparing them with clear cases to identify the differences based on several surrogate measures of safety under different visibility classes. Moreover, vehicles were divided into different types and the vehicles in different lanes were compared in order to identify whether the impact of reduced visibility due to fog on traffic crash risk varies depending on vehicle types and lanes. Log-Inverse Gaussian regression modeling was then applied to explore the relationship between time to collision and visibility together with other traffic parameters. Based on the accurate visibility and traffic data collected by the new visibility and traffic detection system, it was concluded that reduced visibility would significantly increase the traffic crash risk especially rear-end crashes and the impact on crash risk was different for different vehicle types and for different lanes. The results would be helpful to understand the change in traffic crash risk and crash contributing factors under fog conditions. We suggest implementing the algorithms in real-time and augmenting it with ITS measures such as VSL and DMS to reduce crash risk.     

Impact of regional population density on walking behavior

Land use can influence walking (measured by the number of steps) and so the health of people. This paper presents the result of empirical research on the impact of regional population densities (inhabitants per inhabitable area) on the number of steps (all steps, both outdoors and indoors). With data collected from almost 11,000 respondents in 148 Japanese regions, we estimate polynomial regression models, the total number of steps being the dependent variable and densities being the main independent variable. Regional population density significantly affects the number of steps after controlling for individual and household attributes. The estimated population density that maximizes the number of steps is around 11,000?persons/km². Increasing densities, up to levels of around 11,000?inhabitants/km², could increase walking and consequently the health of inhabitants. The population density elasticity of the number of steps is 0.046–0.049 in a simple log linear regression model without a peak.     

PCTC船货舱通风系统设计

PCTC船货舱通风系统的设计是整个PCTC船设计的一个重要组成部分,关系到总体、结构、舾装、轮机和电气等多个专业的设计。近几年来,PCTC船的货舱通风系统的设计也在不断的变化、改进和优化中,本人基于本所目前设计开发的6600UNITS PCTC船型,对这些年来PCTC船货舱通风系统的设计做了一个总结和分析,供相关设计人员参考。     

一种新型尾滑道式船载小艇收放系统可行性研究

作为一种新型的尾滑道式船载小艇收放系统,在回收小艇时,小艇需要以一定的航速冲上尾滑道。回收能否成功除了受制于驾驶员操作水平等主观因素,还与滑道的涉水深度、小艇与母船尾滑道的运动响应等客观条件有关。本文利用切片理论计算了小艇与母船尾滑道的运动响应,并对3级及4级海况下回收小艇的可行性进行了分析。     

新扩建以色列阿什杜德港(ASHDOD)施工关键技术

新扩建的以色列阿什杜德港项目位于地中海开敞海域,受中长周期波浪影响严重,且地质条件复杂,项目主体结构形式多样、施工难度大。通过波浪预报和地质条件分析,提出了多项创新施工技术,克服了开敞海域中长周期波浪对施工的影响,并成功引入到外海碎石桩、深水防波堤、码头桩基等关键分项工程施工中,相关施工经验可供类似项目借鉴。