电磁环境船模预测技术的误差分析研究

基于缩比船模原理,从模型限制误差、方法误差和问题本身的误差等方面分析电磁环境船模预测技术的主要误差源,并在此基础上分别论述上述误差源对电磁环境预测精度产生的影响.可以有针对性地采取相应措施控制误差,以更好地获取逼近于实船的电磁环境分布特性.     

Application of time-variant predictive control to modelling driver steering skill

The paper addresses the need for improved mathematical models of human steering control. A multiple-model structure for a driver's internal model of a nonlinear vehicle is proposed. The multiple-model structure potentially offers a straightforward way to represent a range of driver expertise. The internal model is combined with a model predictive steering controller. The controller generates a steering command through the minimisation of a cost function involving vehicle path error. A study of the controller performance during an aggressive, nonlinear steering manoeuvre is provided. Analysis of the controller performance reveals a reduction in the closed-loop controller bandwidth with increasing tyre saturation and fixed controller gains. A parameter study demonstrates that increasing the multiple-model density, increasing the weights on the path error, and increasing the controller knowledge range all improved the path following accuracy of the controller.     

EVS耦合地层-岩性三维地质建模方法在南宁地铁工程中的应用

为解决地质建模软件Earth Volumetric Studio（EVS）存在的地层建模方法无法对钻孔揭露地层比较复杂的情形进行层序划分，岩性建模方法无法生成连续光滑的层间界面等问题，以南宁市轨道交通3号线青秀山站至博艺路站区间段为研究对象，提出一种同时具有表达复杂透镜体和清晰的地质层面能力的EVS地层-岩性建模方法。通过工程实例将该方法分别与地层建模和岩性建模方法进行对比分析和交叉验证计算，结果表明采用地层-岩性建模方法建立的模型比单独使用地层模型和岩性模型更能反映实际的地质情况，且模型具有更高的精度，模型的相对误差和均方根误差较地层建模方法明显降低。     

基于期望熵的人才流动模型及其选择

Shannon熵可以表示模型不稳定性。本文提出了期望熵的概念并在此基础上建立了人才流动模型。本文还讨论了该模型的选择，并通过抽样调查进行了验证。     

Lead emission rates from gasoline engines—a legislative and in‐use emission rate study of U.K. and U.S. to 1990

Concern for reduction in air‐borne lead emission from passenger cars is focussed on both the legislative and practical steps in reducing lead in gasoline. The historical trends and projections to 1990 of present U.S. and U.K. policies are examined in terms of a baseline passenger car lead emission rate, g.km^‐1. It is likely that should the U.K. adopt a lead‐free petrol the decrease in lead emissions will only partially parallel the present U.S. experience from a start‐up date typically post 1990. The U.S. gasoline pool philosophy has permitted lead levels in gasoline to remain high; a pitfall which the U.K./EEC should avoid.     

DP盖帽混凝土本构模型二次开发及边坡加固工程应用

基于有限元计算软件的二次开发技术,提出一种新型的DP盖帽混凝土本构模型,并结合某边坡置换洞加固工程实例,建立其边坡潜在滑块三维有限元模型,分别采用DP模型与DP盖帽模型分析置换洞的弹塑性破坏程度,对比分析评价其加固效应。研究发现:新开发的DP盖帽模型可成功应用于软件计算中;采用DP模型计算所得安全系数约1.45,采用DP盖帽模型计算所得安全系数约1.41,说明在置换洞加固后存在部分双轴压坏和少量三轴压坏情况,且证明DP盖帽模型能够比DP模型更为精准地考虑混凝土破坏情况,可以为类似工程提供参考依据。     

干湿交替条件下膨胀围岩隧道的力学性态研究

以广西南宁膨胀土为围岩材料,制作室内膨胀围岩隧道物理模型。通过对隧道模型进行干湿循环试验,得出围岩在吸水及失水条件下的围岩应力-时间关系曲线及衬砌应变-时间关系曲线。试验认为在吸水过程中大部分测点的围岩压力都经历了增长、减小、不同速率的再增长3个阶段。衬砌变形则经历缓慢增长、急剧增长、急剧减小、微增长4个阶段;在失水过程中,从整体上可以将围岩压力变化分为两部分,即围岩失水收缩致使衬砌和围岩的接触压力下降导致围岩应力值减小以及土体收缩产生收缩应力导致应力监测值增大。并分析这种变化规律的形成机理,证明时间效应和空间效应的存在。为今后膨胀围岩隧道的结构设计和施工优化提供一定的理论参考。     

A new estimation approach for the multiple discrete–continuous probit (MDCP) choice model

This paper develops a blueprint (complete with matrix notation) to apply Bhat’s (2011) Maximum Approximate Composite Marginal Likelihood (MACML) inference approach for the estimation of cross-sectional as well as panel multiple discrete–continuous probit (MDCP) models. A simulation exercise is undertaken to evaluate the ability of the proposed approach to recover parameters from a cross-sectional MDCP model. The results show that the MACML approach does very well in recovering parameters, as well as appears to accurately capture the curvature of the Hessian of the log-likelihood function. The paper also demonstrates the application of the proposed approach through a study of individuals’ recreational (i.e., long distance leisure) choice among alternative destination locations and the number of trips to each recreational destination location, using data drawn from the 2004 to 2005 Michigan statewide household travel survey.     

Containership scheduling with transit-time-sensitive container shipment demand

This paper examines the optimal containership schedule with transit-time-sensitive demand that is assumed to be a decreasing continuous function of transit time. A mixed-integer nonlinear non-convex optimization model is first formulated to maximize the total profit of a ship route. In view of the problem structure, a branch-and-bound based holistic solution method is developed. It is rigorously demonstrated that this solution method can obtain an ε-optimal solution in a finite number of iterations for general forms of transit-time-sensitive demand. Computational results based on a trans-Pacific liner ship route demonstrate the applicability and efficiency of the solution method.     

基于径向基函数网络的社会消费品总额预测模型

利用BP、RBF神经网络自适应学习法模型,对社会消费品总额进行了预测和研究,结果表明用RBF网络自适应学习法所建立的模型经过训练后,可得到较精确的预测结果,并具有较强的应用性。