公路工程监理市场面临的问题与解决的措施

分析了公路工程监理市场存在的问题及问题产生的原因,针对性地提出了解决问题的措施。     

The value of options for time charterparty extension: an artificial neural networks (ANN) approach

The most frequently associated options in the physical shipping market are options to extend the charter period on time charters and additional shipment options on contracts of affreightment. The value of freight options, in practice, is estimated mostly by referring to forward curves. An option on freight has different properties from its financial counterparts, and the straightforward adoption of theoretical models does not produce promising results. In this paper, extension options, which have the property of options on futures, were transformed into regular European options before the application of the Black-Scholes model (BSM). The efficient market hypothesis, which justifies the parity of the performance of a long-term charter to that of repetitive short-term charters, worked as the basis for the transformation. The option values determined by the BSM were compared with actual realized values. Additionally, the artificial neural networks (ANN) was employed to derive the option values. This study is meaningful as the first-time application of both the closed-form solution and the ANN to the valuation of physical freight options. The research results can contribute to the quality of chartering decisions. The results could also be used in quantifying credit risk, as extension options tend to be granted to charterers with more creditability.     

哈萨克斯坦及中亚地区客车市场分析

2003年以来,中国客车大量出口哈萨克斯坦及其他中亚市场。本文简要介绍该地区的客车市场情况。     

浅谈如何更好地规范公路建设设计变更行为

文章针对目前我国公路建设设计变更领域存在的一些问题,从设计变更内容、设计变更种类分析产生问题的原因,就如何更好地规范公路建设设计变更行为,提出了相关建议。     

道路运输企业质量评价体系研究

文章分析了现有道路运输企业质量评价体系的不足,提出了新的道路评价方法,为将来的道路运输管理和规划提供了一个基础。     

公路客运班车报停制度研究

公路客运峰谷现象明显,在运能、运力有限的情况下,如何才能更好地满足客运高峰期(如春运)的交通需求是政府和企业的一项重要课题。现有的政策并没有使有限的客运资源得到最合理的利用,给能源和环境都带来了一定的影响。文章较系统地从企业和政府两个角度论述了建立班车报停制度的必要性和可行性,通过对客运线路的调查,对公路客运班车报停制度的社会经济效益作了定性和定量分析。     

Sustainability and automobility among the elderly: An international assessment

In the next three decades there will a huge increase in both the absolute number of older people and in their percentage of the populationin almost all Western European countries, North America, and Australia. Most older people will have active lifestyles in which mobility and access play a major role and almost all older men and a majority of older women will be car drivers, used to the convenience and flexibility which the car provides.Using data from the US, Australia, Germany, New Zealand, Norway, and the United Kingdom, the paper shows that, in spite of cultural and policy differences, older people around the world are more likely to have a license, to take more trips, and to do so more often as the driver of a car than older people just a decade ago; they are also less likely to use public transit. These trends have a number of sustainability implications – the most obvious one is increased environmental pollution. For example, even though older people may travel less than younger drivers they may be polluting proportionately more because a) they are less likely to make as great a proportion of trips in public transit as younger people and b) the trips they do make may create more pollutants. In addition, older drivers may incur more wasted miles due to wayfinding errors and trip-scouting behavior. And when older people curtail their driving, younger family members may have to increase (or lengthen) their trip-making to provide needed services or additional transportation.While this paper stresses the environmental problems posed by an aging population, effective strategies arise from a focus on a broader definition of sustainability. The most important approach is to accept the inevitable and work to make the private car "greener" and safer. New transit service concepts and strategic community and neighborhood design and service elements can complement the development of cleaner cars.Although many of the potential strategies are not new, or can be expensive to implement, the convergence of environmental concerns with other problems arising from the automobility of the elderly – including increasing crash rates and serious loss of mobility among those unable to drive – may make these policies more politically viable than in the past.     

Daily rhythms of suburban commuters’ movements in the Tallinn metropolitan area: Case study with mobile positioning data

The objective of this study is to analyse the diurnal rhythms of city life and its spatial differences in Tallinn, using mobile telephone positioning data. The positioning experiment was carried out in April 2006 over an 8-day period and 15-min intervals, with a random sample of 277 respondents living in new residential areas outside the city of Tallinn.The investigation of the space–time movements and daily distances of respondents showed that the majority of respondents had a similar temporal rhythm related to work, school, services and leisure in the city. Because of the different timing of those activities, the mobile positioning data made it possible to map functional differences in the city. The advantages and disadvantages of mobile positioning data in mapping urban life are discussed in the final section of the study.     

电梯作业管理与在线监测系统的移动化作业研究

结合当前上海轨道交通电梯设备的管理现状及存在的主要问题,提出了建设一套移动化的电梯作业管理与在线监测系统,并从系统的业务架构、功能、移动化内容、配置及性能方面分别进行了阐述。通过作业管理子系统与在线监测子系统的相结合,增强电梯设备的实时监控力度,提高现场作业效率,对地铁电梯运营管理水平的整体提升有参考意义。     

Guidance for transport planning and policymaking in the face of an uncertain future

Uncertainty of outcome is widely recognised as a concern facing decision-makers and their advisors. In a number of spheres of policy, it appears uncertainty has intensified in the face of globalisation, economic instability, climate change, technological innovation and changing consumer preferences. How can planners and policymakers plan for an uncertain future? There is growing interest in, and use of, techniques that can help decision-making processes where deep uncertainty is involved. This paper is based upon one of the most recent international examples of a foresight exercise employed to examine uncertainty – specifically that which concerns uncertainty over the nature and extent of future demand for car travel. The principal focus of the paper is on the insights and guidance this examination of uncertainty brings forth for transport planning and policymaking. To accommodate deep uncertainty requires a flexible and open approach in terms of how policy and investment possibilities are formulated and judged. The paper argues for a focus upon the Triple Access System of spatial proximity, physical mobility and digital connectivity as a framework for policy and investment decisions that can harness flexibility and resilience. Uncertainty becomes an opportunity for decision-makers with the realisation that they are shaping the future rather than (only) responding to a predicted future. The paper outlines two forms of policymaking pathway: regime-compliant (in which adherence to trends and the nature of the world we have known pushes policy) and regime-testing (in which the nature of the world as we have known it is brought into question and vision pulls policy decisions). Stronger orientation towards regime-testing to assist in managing an uncertain future is advocated.