A statistical analysis of consumer perceptions towards automated vehicles and their intended adoption

ABSTRACT

While automated vehicle (AV) development continues to progress rapidly, how the public will accept and adopt automated vehicles remains an open question. Using extensive survey data, we apply cluster analysis to better understand consumer perceptions toward potential benefits and concerns related to AVs with regard to factors influencing their AV adoption likelihood. Four market segments are identified – ‘benefits-dominated,’ ‘concerns-dominated,’ ‘uncertain,’ and ‘well-informed.’ A random parameters multinomial logit model is then estimated to identify factors influencing the probability of respondents belonging to one of these four market segments. Among other influences (such as socio-economic and current travel characteristics), it is found that ‘Millennials’ have a higher probability of belonging to the well-informed market segment, ‘Gen-Xers’ with a lower probability to the uncertain market segment, and ‘Baby Boomers’ with a higher probability to the concerns-dominated market (relative to the ‘Great Generation’). We also study the individuals’ expressed likelihood of AV adoption using separate random parameters ordered probit estimations for each of the four market segments. The substantial and statistically significant differences across each AV consumer market segment underscore the potentially large impact that different consumer demographics may have on AV adoption and the need for targeted marketing to achieve better market-penetration outcomes.     

Young people and the private car: A love-hate relationship

Urban mobility is one of the main concerns of the public authorities in developed countries. In France, household travel surveys are conducted every ten years in major cities to gather weekday mobility data. They enable decision-makers to better understand travel patterns, their change and their determinants, in order to adapt transport infrastructures to the population′s needs. While the automobile has allowed the level of mobility to increase since 1950, an unexpected finding has emerged from recent surveys in most developed countries, namely that there has been a marked decline in car use. Analyses show that this trend is mainly because young adults (18–34 years old) are less likely to acquire a driver′s license. This paper tries to better understand the decrease in the rate of driver′s license holding among young adults in the Lyon conurbation and to quantify the impact of the main explanatory factors in a temporal perspective. It also aims to analyze the consequences of this trend on private car use as a driver for daily trips. It quantifies the influence of economic, socio-demographic and spatial factors on driver ′ s license holding and car use by considering the responses to the last three household travels surveys conducted in the Lyon conurbation area (1995, 2006 and 2015). The temporal dimension allows us to highlight a change in the relationship between young adults and the private car in the French context.     

Trends in life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of future light duty electric vehicles

The majority of previous studies examining life cycle greenhouse gas (LCGHG) emissions of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) have focused on efficiency-oriented vehicle designs with limited battery capacities. However, two dominant trends in the US BEV market make these studies increasingly obsolete: sales show significant increases in battery capacity and attendant range and are increasingly dominated by large luxury or high-performance vehicles. In addition, an era of new use and ownership models may mean significant changes to vehicle utilization, and the carbon intensity of electricity is expected to decrease. Thus, the question is whether these trends significantly alter our expectations of future BEV LCGHG emissions.To answer this question, three archetypal vehicle designs for the year 2025 along with scenarios for increased range and different use models are simulated in an LCGHG model: an efficiency-oriented compact vehicle; a high performance luxury sedan; and a luxury sport utility vehicle. While production emissions are less than 10% of LCGHG emissions for today’s gasoline vehicles, they account for about 40% for a BEV, and as much as two-thirds of a future BEV operated on a primarily renewable grid. Larger battery systems and low utilization do not outweigh expected reductions in emissions from electricity used for vehicle charging. These trends could be exacerbated by increasing BEV market shares for larger vehicles. However, larger battery systems could reduce per-mile emissions of BEVs in high mileage applications, like on-demand ride sharing or shared vehicle fleets, meaning that trends in use patterns may countervail those in BEV design.     

后疫情时代国内纯电动乘用车市场发展现状

2020年国内纯电动乘用车市场在新冠肺炎、补贴退坡、各地促销政策陆续出台等多方面因素影响下先抑后扬、市场回暖,呈现出厂商竞争加剧、销售区域转变、私户占比增加、车型趋向高端化等特征。在我国碳达峰、碳中和的宏伟目标下,随着消费者环保认知的不断提升,纯电动乘用车市场将稳步发展并进一步向智能化、自动化方向转变。     

基于滚动时域优化的共享自动驾驶汽车动态调度方法

共享自动驾驶汽车被视为未来城市交通系统的重要组成部分。本文考虑随机订单需求研究共享自动驾驶汽车的动态调度优化方法。通过建立车辆调度时空网络，分别针对订单分配与空车移位生成车辆运行时间弧，提出车辆调度问题的刻画方法。基于马尔科夫决策框架，以时空节点流量为状态，以时空弧流量为决策变量，建立最大化系统净收益的车辆动态调度优化模型。 采取滚动时域优化思想，建立含前视时间窗的随机规划模型，并利用CPLEX优化引擎，滚动求解车辆动态调度决策结果。Sioux Falls网络算例结果表明，滚动时域优化方法可保证车辆动态调度决策效果，提升系统运营效率。在计算时间限制下，滚动时域方法应优先采用长时间窗中等规模 样本。在最大化系统净收益的同时进一步最小化乘客等待时间，可有效提升车辆动态调度决策效果。     

IPO择时行为对资本结构的影响分析

基于资本结构的市场时机选择理论,本文以2006-2010年沪深两市IPO公司为研究对象,建立实证分析模型,研究IPO市场时机选择行为对资本结构的影响。实证结果表明沪市不存在明显的IPO择时行为,而深市较为明显,且此行为对资本结构构有长期影响,但其影响力有限,不及传统因素。     

中国股票市场分形结构探索

为充分认识投资活动的规律，采用上证综合指数对中国市场的价格行为进行了研究．结果表明中国市场具有分形结构．此外，从广义维数和不同幅度收益率在时间轴上的标度行为两方面对中国市场分形的局部结构进行研究的结果也显示了明显的多重分形特征．     

农村客运站建设与管理模式的创新

针对目前农村客运站建设与管理中存在的客运站点建设跟不上发展、客运市场经营主体混乱等问题,提出合理安排农村客运站点布局的原则以及"站所合一"、"三定四统一"等管理模式,以扭转农村客运市场的混乱局面。     

基于收购报价的市场操纵博弈分析

用不完全信息博弈模型分析在收购者作出要约收购报价前后噪声交易量的增加以及收购活动量水平对操纵可能性的影响．在此基础上考察在收购者报价以后是否允许其放弃该报价．当收购活动量水平较高时，唯一的均衡形式是操纵者没有利润，若允许收购者放弃报价则增加了社会盈余。当收购活动量水平较低时，唯一的均衡形式是操纵者获得利润，此时，若允许收购者放弃报价则降低了社会盈余。     

无锡市老年旅游市场开发研究

我国已步入老年社会,老年旅游市场有着巨大的潜力。无锡市地处我国经济较发达地区,人口老龄化的发展趋势严峻,也为无锡市旅游业的发展带来了新的机遇。文章分析了无锡市老年旅游市场的现状,提出了开发老年旅游市场的具体策略。