Inferring left behind passengers in congested metro systems from automated data

With subway systems around the world experiencing increasing demand, measures such as passengers left behind are becoming increasingly important. This paper proposes a methodology for inferring the probability distribution of the number of times a passenger is left behind at stations in congested metro systems using automated data. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and Bayesian inference methods are used to estimate the left behind probability mass function (LBPMF) for a given station and time period. The model is applied using actual and synthetic data. The results show that the model is able to estimate the probability of being left behind fairly accurately.     

高速公路转体桥施工工艺研究

桥梁转体施工具有结构合理、受力明确、工艺简便、节约材料、施工周期短、安全可靠、工程造价低的优点。尤其在运输繁忙的通航河流（或铁路）上采用转体工艺，施工期可确保安全畅通，社会效益明显，具有很好的推广应用价值。     

城市轨道交通站前交替折返间隔分析及计算方法

描述了站前交替折返的作业流程,分析了时序上的限制关系,推导出站前交替折返的停站时间、发车间隔等参数的计算公式,并对特殊情况进行了分析。     

鱼雷扩展螺旋机动搜索弹道设计

当不能准确掌握目标运动信息时,对鱼雷发射平台而言,目标位置散布于一定的区域之内。要提高鱼雷搜索捕捉目标的概率,可利用鱼雷航程远的特性,设计一种扩展螺旋机动搜索弹道,使鱼雷搜索范围尽可能地覆盖目标散布区域。基于这种设想,提出描述鱼雷扩展螺旋机动搜索弹道的参数和确定方法,并对这种弹道进行仿真和分析,得出其适用条件和不足之处。     

短波抗干扰方法实战性研究

在通信对抗中,短波抗干扰方法随着干扰方式和抗干扰技术的不断发展而变化,论文阐述了当前通用的干扰方式,通过机动野外实战对抗的方式对短波抗干扰方法进行深入研究,得出了部分阶段性理论成果.     

拖船回转机动状态下的拖缆暂态分析

拖船直拖到稳态定长回转过程中的拖缆暂态已有研究。对于大半径的拖船回转,Chapman大半径定长回转解法[1],假定拖体轨迹与拖体深度是单调指数关系。对于小半径的拖船回转,拖体的轨迹开始随着拖体深度的波动是一种螺旋线形状,最终趋于Chapman稳态回转值。本文通过定义了一个拖体深度与深度是单调与波动关系,提出了另一种确定Chapman理论大半径与小半径过渡值的方法。在考虑流的影响下的稳态定长回转时,没有求解稳态回转的方法。然而,拖体振幅是拖船回转半径和拖船速度的函数。依据稳态船体回转机动暂态分析来讨论单独360?和单独180?U型回转的动态特性,并得出一些有用的结论。对于某些回转半径而言,拖体所达到的深度比稳态回转所达到的深度大得多。对于180?回转半径小于拖缆长度的回转,拖体深度达不到稳态回转的深度。     

Impact of Indirect Left-Turning Measures from Driveways on Driving Behaviors and Safety

Direct left turn from driveways is considered as a contributor to accident and delay in at-grade intersections. Safety benefits of prohibiting direct left turn from driveways have been identified in many studies. Several engineering alternatives have been developed to accommodate prohibited driveway left turns. These alternatives are (1) right-turn followed by U-turn at the down stream intersection; (2) right-turn followed by median U-turn before the intersection; (3) right-turn followed by median U-turn after the intersection; (4) upstream Jug Handle, and (5) downstream Jug Handle. Each of the five treatments reroutes the left-turn vehicles at intersections, mid-block segments or side streets. Consequently, the alternatives of the indirect left-turning measures give rise to changes in drivers' driving behaviors and safety. Based on the practices and experiences from several states as well as the authors' studies, this paper presents the results from reviewing impacts of the indirect left-turning measures on driving behaviors and safety of the affected drivers. As a result of implementing the alternatives, changes in turning maneuvers and driving tasks, travel speed, speed disturbance, travel time, and drivers' perceptions of acceptable gaps in diverted turning maneuvers are addressed in the discussions of the impact on driving behaviors. And then, changes in conflict areas, conflict counts, and crash types are addressed in the discussions of impact on drivers' safety. In conclusions, major characteristics of the indirect left-turning measures are summarized and some key issues are also discussed.     

熊氏无灯交叉通行法

针对城市道路经常塞车的情况,提出一种公路交叉路口车流通行方案,该方案通过巧妙地设计道路与车流,创建车辆调头区,使得交叉路口不需红绿灯,各种流向的车辆在通过交叉路口时不需停车,各行其道,从而可以最大限度地发挥道路的通行能力,大大提高城市车辆通行速度,消除城市塞车。并且采用这种通行方案的成本极低,因此便于在大中城市推广实施。     

潜艇操纵水动力小波神经网络预报方法研究

针对潜艇操纵性优化设计中水动力系数预报问题,在潜艇水动力预报中引入艇体肥瘦指数概念,确定了潜艇艇体几何描述的五参数模型。提出采用小波神经网络方法预报潜艇水动力,确定了神经网络的结构,利用均匀试验设计方法,设计了神经网络的学习样本。在验证CFD预报艇体水动力有效的基础上,完成了样本水动力系数的CFD计算;通过对样本进行学习,完成了潜艇艇体操纵性水动力系数小波神经网络预报。研究结果表明,只要确定适当的输入参数,选择适当的学习样本和网络结构,利用小波神经网络方法对潜艇水动力进行预报可以达到较高的精度。