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在城市交通网络中,每个交通小区的交通发生量以及吸引量与其经济发展水平、土地利用、人口数量等因素密切相关,通常能够较为准确的预测,而小区之间的交通需求很难准确的预测. 本文假定所有起讫点的交通发生量和吸引量是确定的,而OD需求不确定且属于一个有界区间,利用鲁棒优化的方法建立OD需求不确定环境下考虑用户均衡约束的交通网络设计极小极大模型,并提出了灵敏度分析结合相继平均法(MSA)的求解算法. 数值算例表明,利用鲁棒优化方法得到的网络设计方案较传统的确定性网络设计方案具有更高的可靠性.     

GDNF基因多态性与精神分裂症临床特征的相关性

目的探讨GDNF基因多态性与精神分裂症临床特征的相关性。方法对符合纳入标准的精神分裂症病例组及健康对照组进行临床资料收集及血样的采集,采用聚合酶链式反应-限制性片段长度多态性(PCR-RFLP)方法检测GDNF基因多态性。选取GDNF基因2个SNP位点:rs2973050,rs2910702。所有数据应用SSPS13.0软件包处理。结果①哈迪温伯格平衡(Hardy-Weinberg s equilibrium)结果显示,GDNF基因rs2910702在病例组中偏离哈迪温伯格平衡(χ2=24.983,P=0.000);②GDNF等位基因频率在病例组与对照组中的分布无统计学差异(P>0.05),但基因型频率分布有统计学差异(P<0.05);③GDNF各基因型与精神分裂症的临床分型、PANSS量表各因子分无明显相关性。结论 rs2973050基因型C/C、rs2910702基因型G/G可能与精神分裂症的发生有关,为精神分裂症的危险基因型。     

向黄隧道复杂工程地质问题分析及防治措施

采用高密度电阻率法、声波测井法、场地及室内试验等综合勘察手段,查明了隧址工程地质条件,分析了隧址区可能遇到的工程地质问题(隧道涌水,隧道突水、突泥及塌陷,煤层采空区积水,瓦斯泄露)的成因及特征,并在此基础上提出了防治措施.为该隧道的设计施工提供了重要依据.     

Alternative approaches to spatial modelling

In discussion of the modelling methods that can be used to assess the impacts of transport change on regional and local economies, “land-use/transport interaction (LUTI) models” are often referred to as if all such models were examples of a single, homogeneous commodity. The first and major purpose of this paper is to correct this impression by comparing and contrasting some key features of the main models or modelling packages in the LUTI tradition, particularly those which are generally recognized as constituting the current “state-of-the-art”, or at least the “state of practice”. One particular point within the comparison will be the differing use which is made (or not made) of spatial input-output models in the different approaches.The second purpose of the paper is (more briefly) to compare LUTI modelling with alternative approaches and in particular with spatial computable general equilibrium (SGCE) modelling. One of the common features to emerge from the preceding comparison is that LUTI modelling has been mainly concerned with predicting the location of fixed totals of jobs and of households under different transport scenarios. This is a general feature, even though in some cases these totals are directly fixed by the user whilst in other cases they are the results of long chains of calculations that are insensitive to transport scenarios; in a few cases, the total levels of economic activity are variable according to accessibility-related variables. In contrast, the use of SCGE modelling in testing the impact of transport proposals is very much concerned with the consequences for the total size of the economy in question, usually with a less detailed concern for the spatial distribution of impacts. This comparison leads to a discussion of whether LUTI modelling and SCGE modelling are mutually exclusive or whether some form of synthesis or integration between the two may be theoretically appropriate and/or practically desirable. The requirements of project appraisal - i.e., the assessment of benefits - are also considered.     

超能力运行下港区内集装箱码头的博弈*

以上海外高桥港区集装箱码头为背景,构建超能力运行下同一港区内不同集装箱码头之间的博弈模型,通过逆向归纳法分析求解均衡收费和联盟利润,研究发现:与竞争博弈相比,集装箱码头联盟方都能收取相同并且较高的码头费用,其中部分联盟时联盟方的市场份额均为下降,而非联盟方的均衡收费、市场份额和利润均呈增加趋势。与完全联盟相比,部分联盟时联盟方收取的码头费用、市场份额和联盟利润皆为下降;非联盟方的均衡收费和利润也大幅降低,但市场份额却大幅增加,即同一港区集装箱码头博弈中真正的赢家是非联盟集装箱码头。     

綠色節能最佳化運輸路徑之規劃

隨著經濟發展,自然環境惡化程度持續加深,肇因為小客車數量日益增加,於是近年來綠色交通概念被大力提倡,如能以最佳節能路徑為運輸進行改造,將能為綠色環保盡一份心力。以最短路徑演算法（Dijkastra＇s Algorithm）為基礎,撰寫出最佳節能路徑之演算法,即每台車皆能以最低油耗知目標行駛,並將其與最短距離和最少旅行之路徑進行結果比較,結果發現該最佳節能路徑相較另兩條目標路徑時最能節省燃油消耗,此成果可提供小客車車主進行最佳節能路徑之規劃。另外也以路網均衡之概念進行交通量指派,使用者均衡和系統均衡分別於時間成本和油耗成本目標下之比較。     

基于时刻表的公交网络随机用户均衡配流算法研究

提高公共交通规划管理及信息化水平,需要制定科学的公交规划管理策略,公交客流分配是公交规划与管理的核心内容之一。为促进公交配流理论研究,提高公交客流分配结果科学性,分析了国内外公交配流研究现状,对于城市广义公交网络,结合公交时刻表,定义了公交连接、连接片段以及吸引连接集合,建立了容量限制下基于时刻表的公交网络随机用户均衡配流算法（VRT-SUE）,对算法原理和求解步骤进行了探讨。构建实例公交网络进行分析测试,配流结果显示该模型能够很好的反映出出发时间、到达时间、换乘次数及费用等对乘客公交出行的影响,算法是合理和有效的。     

Robust Wardrop’s user equilibrium assignment under stochastic demand and supply: Expected residual minimization approach

Various models of traffic assignment under stochastic environment have been proposed recently, mainly by assuming different travelers’ behavior against uncertainties. This paper focuses on the expected residual minimization (ERM) model to provide a robust traffic assignment with an emphasis on the planner’s perspective. The model is further extended to obtain a stochastic prediction of the traffic volumes by the technique of path choice approach. We show theoretically the existence and the robustness of the ERM solution. In addition, we employ an improved solution algorithm for solving the ERM model. Numerical experiments are carried out to illustrate the characteristics of the proposed model, by comparing with other existing models.     

Multiple equilibria in a dynamic traffic network

This study provides an example in which the dynamic user equilibrium (DUE) assignment of a congested road network with bottlenecks is non-unique. In previous studies, the uniqueness of DUE assignments with the bottleneck model has been shown in limited cases such as single-origin and single-destination networks. Consequently, it is still an important issue whether or not uniqueness is a general property of DUE assignments. The present study describes a network in which multiple patterns of link travel time are found, thus providing a negative answer to this question. The network has a loopy structure with multiple bottlenecks and multiple origin-destination (OD) pairs. Given a certain demand pattern of departure times for vehicles leaving their origins, a non-convex set of equilibria with a non-unique pattern of link travel times is shown to exist.