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41.
ABSTRACTThis paper describes the development of railway station choice models suitable for defining probabilistic station catchments. These catchments can then be incorporated into the aggregate demand models typically used to forecast demand for new rail stations. Revealed preference passenger survey data obtained from the Welsh and Scottish Governments was used for model calibration. Techniques were developed to identify trip origins and destinations from incomplete address information and to automatically validate reported trips. A bespoke trip planner was used to derive mode-specific station access variables and train leg measures. The results from a number of multinomial logit and random parameter (mixed) logit models are presented and their predictive performance assessed. The models were found to have substantially superior predictive accuracy compared to the base model (which assumes the nearest station has a probability of one), indicating that their incorporation into passenger demand forecasting methods has the potential to significantly improve model predictive performance. 相似文献
42.
Activity-based models of travel demand have received considerable attention in transportation planning and forecasting in recent years. However, in most cases they use a micro-simulation approach, thereby inevitably including a stochastic error that is caused by the statistical distributions of random components. As a consequence, running a transport micro-simulation model several times with the same input will generate different outputs, which baffles practitioners in applying such a model and in interpreting the results. A common approach is therefore to run the model multiple times and to use the average value of the results. The question then becomes: what is the minimum number of model runs required to reach a stable result? In this paper, systematic experiments are carried out using Forecasting Evolutionary Activity-Travel of Households and their Environmental RepercussionS (FEATHERS), an activity-based micro-simulation modelling framework currently implemented for the Flanders region of Belgium. Six levels of geographic detail are taken into account. Three travel indices – average daily activities per person, average daily trips per person and average daily distance travelled per person, as well as their corresponding segmentations – are calculated by running the model 100 times. The results show that the more disaggregated the level, the larger the number of model runs is needed to ensure confidence. Furthermore, based on the time-dependent origin-destination table derived from the model output, traffic assignment is performed by loading it onto the Flemish road network, and the total vehicle kilometres travelled in the whole Flanders are subsequently computed. The stable results at the Flanders level provides model users with confidence that application of FEATHERS at an aggregated level requires only limited model runs. 相似文献
43.
Katharina ParryMartin L. Hazelton 《Transportation Research Part B: Methodological》2012,46(1):175-188
Estimation of origin-destination (OD) matrices from link count data is a challenging problem because of the highly indeterminate relationship between the observations and the latent route flows. Conversely, estimation is straightforward if we observe the path taken by each vehicle. We consider an intermediate problem of increasing practical importance, in which link count data is supplemented by routing information for a fraction of vehicles on the network. We develop a statistical model for these combined data sources and derive some tractable normal approximations thereof. We examine likelihood-based inference for these normal models under the assumption that the probability of vehicle tracking is known. We show that the likelihood theory can be non-standard because of boundary effects, and provide conditions under which such irregular behaviour will be observed in practice. For regular cases we outline connections with existing generalised least squares methods. We then consider estimation of OD matrices under estimated and/or misspecified models for the probability of vehicle tracking. Theoretical developments are complemented by simulation experiments and an illustrative example using a section of road network from the English city of Leicester. 相似文献
44.
文章结合某高速公路软基加固工程实例,介绍了粉喷桩软基加固处理施工的工艺流程及技术要点,并分析了影响粉喷桩软基加固施工的主要因素,提出了相应的质量控制措施。 相似文献
45.
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47.
Kenneth Wieand 《Coastal management》2013,41(2):208-223
The study develops a model of recreational fish catch probabilities, based on angler fishing strategies, that is conditional on uncertain information about the coastal ocean environment. We calculate expected catch based on a hypothetical Baseline Data Set and hypothetical data from an Integrated Ocean Observation System (IOOS) to demonstrate potential benefits from IOOS. The role of Bayesian probabilities in Random Utility Models of recreational fishing is identified. The study discusses the types of information that will be required by recreational anglers in the Gulf of Mexico. Results have implications for the construction of ocean observation systems for recreational fishermen. 相似文献
48.
The fatigue strength of a 300 mm2 stranded copper conductor was investigated experimentally and by finite element (FE) analysis. An analytical model was also developed and validated. Wires taken from the outer layer of the conductor were fatigue tested in tension–tension loading and compared with similar data for wires taken from a 95 mm2 conductor. The wire cross section was deformed due to the compacting process that was applied during fabrication. When corrected for stress concentrations due to the deformation the data for the two sets of wire fell within the same scatter-band. Full scale testing was carried out in a specially designed rig with constant tensile load and reversed displacement controlled bending with a fixed curvature variation. The loading is a simulation of the loading of a power cable hanging from a floating vessel through a bellmouth. Conductors were tested in two states; dry and lubricated. A finite element model was established for the copper conductor. The model was formulated by a combination of elastic beam and beam-contact elements that included the effects of friction. The effect of local bending due to contact forces was included in the model. Two contact conditions were investigated; the point (trellis) contact between adjacent layers of wire and the inline contact within each layer and between the first layer (centre wire) and the second layer. The FE model was validated by a calibration test of a full scale conductor, and by sensitivity studies varying the size and the number of elements of the model. Fatigue analysis of the conductor was carried out, based on the S–N curve for individual wires. Taking into account the effects of friction and local bending, agreement was obtained between predicted and experimental fatigue strength of the conductor, for the FE model as well as the analytical model. 相似文献
49.
We examine car driver’s behaviour when choosing a parking place; the alternatives available are free on-street parking, paid on-street parking and parking in an underground multi-storey car park. A mixed logit model, allowing for correlation between random taste parameters and estimated using stated choice data, is used to infer values of time, both when looking for a parking space and for accessing the final destination. Apart from the cost of parking, we found that vehicle age was a key variable when choosing where to park in Spain. We also found that the perception of the parking charge was fairly heterogeneous, depending both on the drivers’ income levels and whether or not they were local residents. Our results can be generalised for personalised policy making related with parking demand management. 相似文献
50.
Rodrigo Mesa-Arango 《智能交通系统杂志
》2014,18(4):327-338
》2014,18(4):327-338
Several transportation problems, such as implementation of truck-only lanes, require understanding the interaction of heterogeneous dynamic traffic flows in order to provide accurate solutions. System-optimal dynamic traffic assignment can be modeled using a network loading procedure based on the cell transmission model, that is, the hydrodynamic wave model, and solved by linear programming. However, this framework cannot handle the asymmetric integration between the flow of trucks and cars. This article presents a novel formulation for network loading in system-optimal dynamic traffic assignment considering car–truck interactions. By using an embedded cell transmission model, this formulation incorporates a set of assumptions related to the kinematic characteristics of the flow of cars, trucks, and their interactions that can be solved using linear programming. We present numerical results supporting our modeling assumptions. Likewise, the observed emergent behavior captures the car–truck interactions accurately and indicates that minimum system-optimal travel time is obtained by encouraging cars to use highways with shorter distances. 相似文献