Role of Bus‐Based Park and Ride in the UK: A Temporal and Evaluative Review

Abstract

The number of bus‐based Park and Ride (P&R) schemes in the UK has grown substantially over the past 40 years as a result of its encouragement by the Government as a tool to deal with increasing traffic congestion and traffic‐related pollution. The aim of this article is to analyse the degree to which P&R is effective in the contemporary policy context. The authors identify phases of development of P&R since its emergence as a local solution to transport capacity constraints in historic towns. Policy goals are identified against which a review of literature is used to highlight its effectiveness. It is concluded that P&R may increase the distance travelled by its users due to low load factors on dedicated buses, public transport abstraction and trip generation, although it is highlighted that there are areas in which further research is required to clarify its impacts.     

A note on the use of correlation coefficients for assessing goodness-of-fit in spatial interaction models

The use of correlation coefficients to evaluate the accuracy of spatial interaction models is inappropriate unless such models have been fitted using least squares techniques. In other cases the correlation involves an implicit intercept value and a regression coefficient that may significantly modify the interaction model's estimates. Researchers have not acknowledged the role of these two parameters when the correlation is used. A generalized root mean square error is proposed as an alternative indicator of accuracy that may be used with any model.     

组合预测在港口吞吐量预测中的应用研究

以某港口1996—2002年吞吐量为原始数据,按照“误差平方和最小”的准则,把一元线性回归模型和GM(1,1)模型组合起来,对某港口2004—2008年的吞吐量进行了组合预测。     

Choice of parking: Stated preference approach

Over recent years, parking policy has become a key element of transport policy in many countries. Parking policy measures can affect many different dimensions of travel behaviour but are likely to be most significant in terms of travellers' choice of parking type and location. This dimension of travel choice has, to date, received comparatively little attention, yet is of vital importance if we are to properly understand and predict the effects of parking policy measures.This paper presents two studies addressing this issue carried out in the United Kingdom and Germany. Both studies used a stated preference approach in order to collect disaggregate data on travellers responses to changes in parking attributes and used these data to build simple logit models of parking type choice. The studies were designed in order to allow comparable choice models to be estimated from the two datasets. The results obtained strongly indicate the need to separately identify the costs associated with different components of the parking activity (e.g., general in-vehicle time, parking search time, egress time) and also point to the existence of significant differences in the relative valuation of these components across different journey purposes. Where possible, the results of the choice modelling exercises are also compared with existing revealed and stated preference results and are found to be generally in line with prior expectations.     

Management of coastal eutrophication: Integration of field data, ecosystem-scale simulations and screening models

A hybrid approach for eutrophication assessment in estuarine and coastal ecosystems is presented. The ASSETS screening model (http://www.eutro.org) classifies eutrophication status into five classes: High (better), Good, Moderate, Poor and Bad (worse). This model was applied to a dataset from a shallow coastal barrier island system in southwest Europe (Ria Formosa), with a resulting score of Good. A detailed dynamic model was developed for this ecosystem, and the outputs were used to drive the screening model. Four scenarios were run on the research model: pristine, standard (simulates present loading), half and double the current nutrient loading. The Ria Formosa has a short water residence time and eutrophication symptoms are not apparent in the water column. However, benthic symptoms are expressed as excessive macroalgal growth and strong dissolved oxygen fluctuations in the tide pools. The standard simulation results showed an ASSETS grade identical to the field data application. The application of the screening model to the other scenario outputs showed the responsiveness of ASSETS to changes in pressure, state and response, scoring a grade of High under pristine conditions, Good for half the standard scenario and Moderate for double the present loadings. The use of this hybrid approach allows managers to test the outcome of measures against a set of well-defined metrics for the evaluation of state. It additionally provides a way of testing and improving the pressure component of ASSETS. Sensitivity analysis revealed that sub-sampling the output of the research model at a monthly scale, typical for the acquisition of field data, may significantly affect the outcome of the screening model, by overlooking extreme events such as occasional night-time anoxia in tide pools.     

沥青路面应力位移简化计算

为方便沥青路面结构设计生产、教学、科研之用， 本文采用分析综合法与分离变量法建立了弹性三层体系应力位移显式模型； 并在分析常见路面结构层厚度及其当量换算和模量变化范围的基础上， 成功求得了三层体系路表弯沉、上层滑动应力、上层连续应力、中层应力逼近公式；精度分析表明本文逼近公式精度很好， 完全可推广应用于多层体系， 满足工程设计和有关理论研究的需要．     

Investigating the influence of soil properties on railway traffic vibration using a numerical model

This paper presents the influence of dynamic and geometrical soil parameters on the propagation of ground vibrations induced by external loads. The proposed approach is based on a three-dimensional model, focusing on realistic excitation sources like impulse loads and moving railway vehicles. For the latter, a complete vehicle/track model is developed. The simulation is performed in time domain, offering an interesting approach, compared with classic cyclic analyses. The ground is modelled initially as an elastic homogeneous half-space and additionally as a layered half-space. First, the effect of homogeneous soil properties on ground vibration is analysed. Soil stratification is then taken into account, using various configurations. Analysis reveals that as receiver distance increases ground wave reflection in a layered ground plays an important role in the reduction of ground surface motion. This effect is magnified when the phase velocity wavelength becomes large compared with the depth of the surface layer.     

混输原油管道优化运行技术研究

针对长吉输油管线采用混合输送方式输送俄罗斯原油和大庆原油及该管线的工程实际,以总运行费用最小为原则,以各站进站温度和开泵方案为决策变量,建立了该管线优化运行的数学模型,采用穷举法穷举出各种可能的开泵方案作为外层嵌套,将进站温度的优化作为内层嵌套求解该模型。通过某天实际运行方案和优化运行方案对比可以看出,优化运行方案总费用降低7%。     

影响十堰市汽车保有量的因素分析

汽车保有量与社会经济发展水平有密切的关系,通过建立计量经济学模型寻求汽车保有量和社会经济有关指标的函数关系,可以较为准确地预测十堰市短期内的汽车保有量。根据统计数据回归分析,影响十堰市汽车保有量的主要因素有:社会消费品零售总额、城镇居民可支配收入和社会固定资产投资。     

舰载多功能相控阵雷达效能评估

针对舰载多功能相控阵雷达的系统特性,根据其具备的警戒、引导、跟踪、目标识别与指示、火控与制导等功能,建立了海基多功能相控阵雷达作战效能评估指标体系,对其效能进行评估。在简单介绍了灰色层次分析法和其基本算法步骤的基础上,利用改进型灰色聚类分析和层次分析法来评估舰载多功能相控阵雷达作战效能的模型,把该雷达系统中的一些定性分析转化为定量分析。再结合实例,通过具体评估,验证了评估模型及算法的有效性,为海基多功能相控阵雷达的作战效能评估提供了依据。