基于HMM-SVR的船舶动力设备故障模式识别与状态预测研究

船舶动力设备因故障监测信号样本少、变化缓慢且数据特征呈非线性,使得设备故障模式的准确识别和状态预测比较难。鉴于此,文章研究了基于隐马尔科夫模型的故障模式识别方法,利用该模型将微弱变化的信号特征转换为变化较大的对数似然概率对故障模式实现有效识别。在此基础上进一步提出基于HMM-SVR的设备状态预测模型,将遗传算法用于支持向量回归模型参数寻优,并结合隐马尔科夫模型,实现对设备状态的预测。对船用柴油机进行仿真,结果表明上述模型具有较高的识别率,能准确预测船舶动力设备的当前状态。     

考虑螺旋桨体积力的水下机器人水动力特性仿真

为在初步设计时预测ROV的水动力性能,使用CFD技术进行分析,以ROV模型为例,最大程度地保留ROV内部的构件,使模型更加接近真实状况。分别计算ROV在不同工况下的阻力、不同漂角下的横向力和转艏力矩以及添加体积力模型之后的螺旋桨流场状况,很好地模拟出ROV周围的流场,并与已有的试验数据进行对比。结果验证了CFD水动力仿真的可行性和准确性,并还可预测ROV在螺旋桨作用下的进速等,对ROV设计具有实际的参考价值和指导意义。     

Situation analysis forecasting: the case of European maritime clusters

Within the literature concerned with aspects of competitiveness, innovation and strategic management of industrial clusters, the body regarding forecasting of strategic management is still nascent. This work aspires to render a contribution within the domain of strategic management forecasting, through the indicative case of European maritime clusters. For this end, a two-tier model is formulated. A quantitative strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) methodology that derives from the fusion of a quondam situation analysis and crosstabs’ theory is generated. This leads to the utilization of the crosstab’s conditional probabilities as transition probabilities; the latter are called to compile the transition matrix of a Markov chain. Through this methodology, and the successive Markov chain’s transition matrices, strategic forecasts are extracted for a devised European maritime cluster case. This work relinquishes a novel application with respect to strategic management forecasting, that provides a dichotomy of practical interpretations and scenarios for quantitative situation analysis. Thus, it may enable effective real-time decision-making for strategic management and/or policy drafting. The situation analysis forecasting model may find applicability in a plethora of practical and theoretical cases, wherein forecasting may be desirable. It may as well pertain to an intrinsic methodology for situation analysis forecasting of maritime clusters.     

太阳能光伏电力系统在800PCC滚装船上的应用研究

为使船舶达到绿色、环保的要求,并解决能源紧缺问题,在船上广泛应用太阳能是一种有效途径。介绍太阳能在船上应用的现状和相关规范对太阳能在船上应用的规定。分析在800PCC滚装船上应用太阳能的优势,给出该船的基本参数和航线,结合这些基本信息分析该船太阳能光伏电力系统的结构和运行模式。通过研究总结出该船应用太阳能可带来能效指数提高的积极效应。     

An integrated framework for embedding large-scale dynamic traffic assignment models in advanced traveler information systems

In recent years, increasing attention has been drawn to the development of various applications of intelligent transportation systems (ITS), which are credited with the amelioration of traffic conditions in urban and regional environments. Advanced traveler information systems (ATIS) constitute an important element of ITS by providing potential travelers with information on the network's current performance both en-route and pre-trip. In order to tackle the complexity of such systems, derived from the difficulty of providing real-time estimations of current as well as forecasts of future traffic conditions, a series of models and algorithms have been initiated. This paper proposes the development of an integrated framework for real-time ATIS and presents its application on a large-scale network, that of Thessaloniki, Greece, concluding with a discussion on development and implementation challenges as well as on the advantages and limitations of such an effort.     

A two-phase model for dry port location with an application to the port of Dalian in China

This paper provides guidance for an optimal and reasonable dry port layout for the port of Dalian in China. We present a two-phase framework on the location of dry ports, which solves the selection of candidate inland cities and optimal dry port location choice, respectively. Fuzzy C-Means Clustering is applied to select alternative cities in the vast hinterland of the seaport of Dalian, with a view to identify evaluation factors that affect the location selection decision. A cost-minimisation linear programming solution is proposed, with the aid of a genetic algorithm, to choose the optimal location as well as capacity level among the candidate inland cities.     

液化天然气(LNG)汽车日常检查方法及维护技术综述

天然气是一种优质的替代燃料,具有污染小、安全系数高、运行费用低等优点。天然气已经成为城市公共交通领域应用最为成功和广泛的车辆替代燃料技术,为推动交通运输行业的节能减排做出了显著的贡献。液化天然气汽车,作为天然气汽车的一种类型,与传统汽柴油车相比,液化天然气汽车安装了包括液化天然气气瓶、气管路及各种控制阀门和仪表在内的专用装置,在对液化天然气汽车进行日常检查时需要针对液化天然气汽车的专用装置进行重点检查。本文则针对液化天然气汽车的特点,对液化天然气汽车的正确使用方法、日常检查方法及维护技术要求、以及相关注意事项三个方面进行了解读,为指导液化天然气汽车进行日常检查与定期维护提供了技术参考。     

Understanding the impacts of a combination of service improvement strategies on bus running time and passenger’s perception

Transit agencies implement many strategies in order to provide an attractive transportation service. This article aims to evaluate the impacts of implementing a combination of strategies, designed to improve the bus transit service, on running time and passenger satisfaction. These strategies include using smart card fare collection, introducing limited-stop bus service, implementing reserved bus lanes, using articulated buses, and implementing transit signal priority (TSP). This study uses stop-level data collected from the Société de transport de Montréal (STM)’s automatic vehicle location (AVL) and automatic passenger count (APC) systems, in Montréal, Canada. The combination of these strategies has lead to a 10.5% decline in running time along the limited stop service compared to the regular service. The regular route running time has increased by 1% on average compared to the initial time period. The study also shows that riders are generally satisfied with the service improvements. They tend to overestimate the savings associated with the implementation of this combination of strategies by 3.5-6.0 min and by 2.5-4.1 min for both the regular route and the limited stop service, respectively. This study helps transit planners and policy makers to better understand the effects of implementing a combination of strategies to improve running time and passenger’s perception of these changes in service.     

Ecologically based hybrid life cycle analysis of continuously reinforced concrete and hot-mix asphalt pavements

An ecologically-based hybrid life cycle assessment model is used to evaluate the resource consumption and atmospheric emissions of continuously reinforced concrete and a hot-mix asphalt pavements. The cumulative mass and ecological resource consumption values are lower for continuously reinforced concrete, but the median values of cumulative energy and industrial energy consumption were lower for hot-mix asphalt. In addition, the use of reclaimed asphalt pavement results in a higher sensitivity for the ecological resource consumption of hot-mix asphalt compared to that of fly ash when use on the natural capital utilization of continuously reinforced concrete pavement. The cumulative and industrial exergy consumption values are significantly reduced with increases in reclaimed asphalt pavement and fly ash, and the use of low fuel transportation modes.     

船舶操纵模拟器上海洋山港港区三维视景仿真

针对船舶操纵模拟中的三维视景仿真的特点,开展船舶操纵模拟器中关于上海洋山港港区三维视景仿真的研究。以Google Earth提供的电子地形图像为基础,经过等高线和矢量化方法的处理,生成数字高程模型(Digital Elevation Model,DEM),并利用Multigen Creator建立直观的上海洋山港港区三维地形模型,再利用Vega的三维视景渲染功能对其进行渲染和驱动。根据该方法建立的上海洋山港港区三维视景模型库在模型精细度、逼真度和实时运算等方面,都能满足船员实操练习所需的条件。