SPSS在拱桥轴线变形观测回归拟合中应用

根据实测获取的桥拱轴线的观测数据,通过应用SPSS程序软件,对桥拱轴线的设计线形进行了拟合,确定了其有关参数和理论数据,使桥梁及其他建筑物的曲线回归、变形分析和精度评定更规律化简单化和高效率,为旧危建筑加固维护,新建筑物施工质量评价,提供了翔实可靠的依据.     

Comparing prediction methods for maritime accidents

ABSTRACT

The purpose of maritime accident prediction is to reasonably forecast an accident occurring in the future. In determining the level of maritime traffic management safety, it is important to analyze development trends of existing traffic conditions. Common prediction methods for maritime accidents include regression analysis, grey system models (GM) and exponential smoothing. In this study, a brief introduction is provided that discusses the aforementioned prediction models, including the associated methods and characteristics of each analysis, which form the basis for an attempt to apply a residual error correction model designed to optimize the grey system model. Based on the results, in which the model is verified using two different types of maritime accident data (linear smooth type and random-fluctuation type, respectively), the prediction accuracy and the applicability were validated. A discussion is then presented on how to apply the Markov model as a way to optimize the grey system model. This method, which proved to be correct in terms of prediction accuracy and applicability, is explored through empirical analysis. Although the accuracy of the residual error correction model is usually higher than the accuracy of the original GM (1,1), the effect of the Markov correction model is not always superior to the original GM (1,1). In addition, the accuracy of the former model depends on the characteristics of the original data, the status partition and the determination method for the status transition matrix.     

Measuring the influence of bus service quality on the perception of users

Encouraging the use of public transport is a key policy goal in many countries. Therefore, public transport should offer the level of quality that accommodates the demands of current users, and importantly, the desires of potential users. This study investigates the influence of the perceived quality of bus service on the perception of both current and potential users. The study draws upon data from 512 questionnaires distributed across Belfast City in the UK. The study utilises a binary logistic regression model to quantify the relationships between the perceived quality of 29 bus indicators (independent) and the perceptions of users towards the overall bus service (dependent). Eleven significant indicators are reported to have significant influence on the perception of users. These indicators are utilised to propose scenarios for optimising the quality of bus service with the perceptions of current and potential users.     

Comparison of advanced imputation algorithms for detection of transportation mode and activity episode using GPS data

Global Positioning System (GPS) technologies have been increasingly considered as an alternative to traditional travel survey methods to collect activity-travel data. Algorithms applied to extract activity-travel patterns vary from informal ad-hoc decision rules to advanced machine learning methods and have different accuracy. This paper systematically compares the relative performance of different algorithms for the detection of transportation modes and activity episodes. In particular, naive Bayesian, Bayesian network, logistic regression, multilayer perceptron, support vector machine, decision table, and C4.5 algorithms are selected and compared for the same data according to their overall error rates and hit ratios. Results show that the Bayesian network has a better performance than the other algorithms in terms of the percentage correctly identified instances and Kappa values for both the training data and test data, in the sense that the Bayesian network is relatively efficient and generalizable in the context of GPS data imputation.     

The relationship between urban street networks and private motorized trips at the city level

There are factors that impact car usage in urban areas, such as density, diversity and design, but there have been few studies that examine the relationship between street network factors and car usage at the city level (macro level). This paper focuses on this relationship by introducing urban street network variables, such as blocks per area, nodes per block and length of roads and motorways, as independent variables and the percentage of daily trips by private motorized modes as the dependent variable. The street network in this study includes interconnecting lines and points that present streets, roads, motorways, intersections and blocks. The strength of the relationship in this study is found using multiple linear regression. The findings of this research indicate that an increase in car usage is correlated with an increasing number of blocks per area, number of nodes per block and length of motorways. In addition, because the urban street network is the result of macro-scale planning decisions, considering this relationship can lead to better planning decisions.     

斜拉桥不确定性参数随机分析研究

为了研究复杂结构体系中不确定性结构参数对其静动力特性的影响,采用多元步进响应面的Monte Carlo法,即将数理统计中的多元步进回归技术引入响应面拟合中,选择出若干个对因变量影响较大的随机变量参与响应面拟合,从而建立一个较为理想和稳定的回归方程,提高响应面的精度,并基于拟合响应面采用拉丁超立方抽样法生成MonteCarlo样本,实现复杂结构体系响应参数的随机分析。采用该方法对润扬大桥北汊斜拉桥静动力特性进行了敏感性因素分析。计算分析表明,斜拉桥主梁质量密度的随机性对其静动力特性最为敏感,同时斜拉索和主梁结构参数的随机性对斜拉桥低阶模态的敏感性较强。所做工作能为斜拉桥结构受力分析提供参考,同时为复杂结构体系不确定性参数的随机分析提供相应的思路。     

基于决策树技术的建筑企业信用评价研究

在决策树理论的指导下,通过信息增益的应用和公式的构造获取属性重要程度评价值,结合决策树的C5．0算法得到建筑企业的信用评价模型。经过对该模型进行测试和评价,取得了较好的预测效果。     

客运企业能源消耗统计模型的研究

为了适应当前汽车运输企业的经营现状,通过建立燃油消耗统计模型,对燃油消耗量进行统计。以燃油消耗量为因变量,以影响燃油消耗的因素：周转量、客运量、车龄、驾驶员驾龄、平均车速、实栽率、行驶里程作为自变量,建立多元线性回归模型。通过拟合优度检验、F检验,判断其线性相关性,再运用逐步回归法优化统计模型,从而实现在知道有限数据信息的情况下,预测出该企业当月的车辆燃油消耗总量。将企业调研的实际统计数据代入统计模型计算的燃油消耗量,与实际统计燃油消耗量比较接近,而且统计过程得到简化。结合统计模型的研究方法开发了相应的统计软件。     

Study on Bush Tree Growth in XLPE Using 3D PD Patterns

Exploitation of equipment with cross linked polyethylene (XLPE) insulationrequires its condition monitoring and diagnostic. Traditionally diagnostics of insulation is carriedout by means of partial discharge detection. However, such identification of a defect, forexample, void, inclusion or treeing, does not say about its danger from a point of view of fullinsulation gap breakdown and insulation construction failure. For this purpose a 29 kV CN-CVcable sample is studied. The experiment is based on research for determination of thedependencies between PD characteristics in XLPE upon time and three dimension PD patternsof corresponding treeing. The investigations were carried out by means of electricalmeasurement of PD current and simultaneous optical recording of treeing image. The needle-plane electrode is applied as the electrode. As a result,-q-n PD patterns which are used asthe bases to bush tree initialization and growth can be obtained. Test results show that PDpattern recognition can be applied as a powerful tool for recognizing electrical tree initializationand growth. This can make a good basis for on-line condition monitoring of high voltage powercable.     

人民币对美元汇率影响因素浅析

运用简单线性回归、多自变量回归的经济计量学方法考察了人民币对美元汇率的运行结构,确立了人民币对美元汇率的多因素模型,并通过扩大样本模型检验的方法对1994年我国外汇体制改革前后的人民币对美元汇率模型进行对比分析,提出了对人民币汇率变动趋势的见解。