基于粒子群算法的水下多元线阵阵形有源校正方法

针对存在阵元位置误差的水下多元线阵,提出一种基于粒子群优化算法的远场有源阵形校正方法.该方法选用2个辅助源分时工作方式,利用无条件最大似然方位估计算法构建目标函数,并通过粒子群算法对阵元位置进行寻优.利用该方法对均匀线阵进行性能仿真实验.结果表明:该方法稳健性好、校正精度高,具有一定的应用前景.     

基于最优回归理论的舰船辐射噪声指向性统计模型及分析方法研究

文章在已有单航次的舰船噪声空间特性建模分析方法等研究成果的基础上,进一步研究了若干航次条件下的统计建模及分析方法。该研究主要以单一部位垂向剖面的噪声指向性为例,建立了基于最优回归理论的舰船目标辐射噪声特性的统计模型及分析方法,并开展了海上实测研究,验证了该模型及分析方法的正确性和可行性。该项成果为深入分析不同航行工况下各类舰船目标的噪声空间特性及其统计规律等创造了条件。     

Assessing the impact of reduced visibility on traffic crash risk using microscopic data and surrogate safety measures

Due to the difficulty of obtaining accurate real-time visibility and vehicle based traffic data at the same time, there are only few research studies that addressed the impact of reduced visibility on traffic crash risk. This research was conducted based on a new visibility detection system by mounting visibility sensor arrays combined with adaptive learning modules to provide more accurate visibility detections. The vehicle-based detector, Wavetronix SmartSensor HD, was installed at the same place to collect traffic data. Reduced visibility due to fog were selected and analyzed by comparing them with clear cases to identify the differences based on several surrogate measures of safety under different visibility classes. Moreover, vehicles were divided into different types and the vehicles in different lanes were compared in order to identify whether the impact of reduced visibility due to fog on traffic crash risk varies depending on vehicle types and lanes. Log-Inverse Gaussian regression modeling was then applied to explore the relationship between time to collision and visibility together with other traffic parameters. Based on the accurate visibility and traffic data collected by the new visibility and traffic detection system, it was concluded that reduced visibility would significantly increase the traffic crash risk especially rear-end crashes and the impact on crash risk was different for different vehicle types and for different lanes. The results would be helpful to understand the change in traffic crash risk and crash contributing factors under fog conditions. We suggest implementing the algorithms in real-time and augmenting it with ITS measures such as VSL and DMS to reduce crash risk.     

Long-term impact of the Shinkansen on rail and air demand: analysis with data from Northeast Japan

This paper analyses how the high-speed rail construction in Northeast Japan (Tohoku) has affected total demand and interregional travel patterns. We use annual interregional passenger data from 1989 to 2012 and apply regression analysis with the demand between Tokyo and the Tohoku prefectures as the dependent variable. We distinguish particularly between the ‘Full-’ and the ‘Mini-’ Shinkansen, where the latter are branch services running with reduced speed. We find that the ‘Full-Shinkansen’ quickly increases rail and total public transport trips and generates additional rail demand year on year. The ‘Mini-Shinkansen’ impacts are less pronounced. Furthermore, our analysis shows that the Shinkansen has shifted some demand from air to rail once it started operation and increased rail share gradually. We therefore suggest that predictions of demand impacts should carefully distinguish immediate from gradual impacts. We also discuss differences in regional demand in that not all prefectures have gained equally from Shinkansen construction.     

基于偏最小二乘的两栖突击车作战效能预测

针对两柄突击车作战效能和偏最小二乘的特点,提出了基于偏最小二乘预测作战效能的方法。介绍了偏最小二乘回归的具体过程,在此基础上．对某型两栖突击车的作战效能进行了预测。得到了可靠的作战效能系数。     

雷达对抗装备故障诊断系统研究与设计

针对雷达对抗装备的功能结构和故障成因具有层次性的特点,综合利用层次故障树分析法和专家系统的优点,研究设计了雷达对抗装备故障诊断系统。通过对装备的功能结构和故障特性的层次分析,在较小的范围内建立了故障树,并将故障树转换成二叉树来构建知识库,按照最小割集重要度大小的优先顺序进行诊断推理,实现了对雷达对抗装备故障的快速诊断。     

鱼雷内弹道特征参数估计的回归分析

论述了以建立回归方程为中心,利用有限的实验数据建立舰艇鱼雷发射内弹道特征参数（鱼雷出管速度、膛压极值）的线性回归方程。通过实验数据计算,证明这是一种舰艇鱼雷发射内弹道特征参数估算的有效方法。在回归分析法基础上,提出了如何进行实验的优化。     

基于二叉树的某型船柴油机控制系统故障诊断专家系统

专家系统可以解决复杂系统的故障诊断,其中知识库和推理机是其核心内容。首先利用故障树表达某型舰柴油机控制系统各故障事件之间的逻辑关系,然后将故障树转化为二叉故障树,与专家系统相结合,完成专家系统知识库和推理机的设计。将该方法应用于某型船柴油机控制系统的故障诊断,结果表明,专家系统的知识库存储结构简单、易于维护,推理机的逻辑推理关系简单,易于实现。     

公路水泥混凝土路面基层顶面当量回弹模量非线性计算公式归一化的研究

鉴于1994年和2002年水泥混凝土路面设计规范中,基层顶面当量回弹模量确定过程存在的繁琐性,有必要通过回归分析,对2002年规范所提供的六个计算公式加以简化。实践表明,该简化能够满足计算要求并取得满意的效果。     

基于HMM-SVR的船舶动力设备故障模式识别与状态预测研究

船舶动力设备因故障监测信号样本少、变化缓慢且数据特征呈非线性,使得设备故障模式的准确识别和状态预测比较难。鉴于此,文章研究了基于隐马尔科夫模型的故障模式识别方法,利用该模型将微弱变化的信号特征转换为变化较大的对数似然概率对故障模式实现有效识别。在此基础上进一步提出基于HMM-SVR的设备状态预测模型,将遗传算法用于支持向量回归模型参数寻优,并结合隐马尔科夫模型,实现对设备状态的预测。对船用柴油机进行仿真,结果表明上述模型具有较高的识别率,能准确预测船舶动力设备的当前状态。