北亚得里亚海集装箱港口群市场前景分析

欧洲发达市场是全球集装箱海运重要板块,对其市场发展潜力分析是中资企业参与欧洲集装箱港口投资的必要前提。集装箱港口市场发展潜力受多种因素影响,以腹地生产法进行市场预测是当前的主流方法,但该方法主要以外贸需求作为变量,存在片面性。针对当前海外港口集装箱市场分析中存在的问题,提出最优路径模型下港口集装箱市场规模预测,并以亚得里亚海北部港口群作为典型案例予以说明。分析表明,最优路径模型在大范围集装箱港口市场规模分析中具有较好的适应性,能够为投资决策提供参考。     

勘察设计企业内河水运市场建设机遇分析

以往我国水运建设的重点领域为沿海地区,对内河水运建设的关注度不足。为助力水运工程勘察设计企业更好地认清并把握内河水运市场建设机遇,对内河水运方面的数据和规划资料进行梳理和分析,论述内河水运发展现状及趋势,厘清我国内河水运建设的重点领域,认为内河码头及相关水利设施的建设是当前乃至未来一段时期内我国水运建设领域的重点任务,内河专业化码头工程、内河物流节点项目、航道及水利工程、跨境国际水域工程等值得重点关注。     

Unravelling effects of cooperative adaptive cruise control deactivation on traffic flow characteristics at merging bottlenecks

Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control (CACC) systems have the potential to increase roadway capacity and mitigate traffic congestion thanks to the short following distance enabled by inter-vehicle communication. However, due to limitations in acceleration and deceleration capabilities of CACC systems, deactivation and switch to ACC or human-driven mode will take place when conditions are outside the operational design domain. Given the lack of elaborate models on this interaction, existing CACC traffic flow models have not yet been able to reproduce realistic CACC vehicle behaviour and pay little attention to the influence of system deactivation on traffic flow at bottlenecks. This study aims to gain insights into the influence of CACC on highway operations at merging bottlenecks by using a realistic CACC model that captures driver-system interactions and string length limits. We conduct systematic traffic simulations for various CACC market penetration rates (MPR) to derive free-flow capacity and queue discharge rate of the merging section and compare these to the capacity of a homogeneous pipeline section. The results show that an increased CACC MPR can indeed increase the roadway capacity. However, the resulting capacity in the merging bottleneck is much lower than the pipeline capacity and capacity drop persists in bottleneck scenarios at all CACC MPR levels. It is also found that CACC increases flow heterogeneity due to the switch among different operation modes. A microscopic investigation of the CACC operational mode and trajectories reveals a close relation between CACC deactivation, traffic congestion and flow heterogeneity.     

基于资本投资决策理论的工程方案决策与比选方法

研究目的：在基础工程项目建设的准备阶段，较为准确地预测工程方案的工程费用，选择出对不同主体（投资公司和社会）均较经济、合理的方案；真实地反应项目所消耗的“土地资源资产”的价值，为防止国有资产的流失提供合理依据。 研究方法：引入投资决策理论和机会成本分析理论，采用动态的工程费用计算方法，考虑工程方案整个比选期限内的全部费用。 研究结论：由于费用计算存在失真，所以同一个方案对于不同的主体而言，其经济性的评价结果是不一致的；引入投资决策理论，可以较为准确地预测工程方案的工程费用现值；利用机会成本分析理论，可以真实地反应项目所消耗的“土地资源资产”的价值；必须考虑工程方案整个比选期限内的全部费用，并采用动态的费用计算方法，才能较为全面、真实地反映工程的实际造价。     

Integrated sequencing and merging aircraft to parallel runways with automated conflict resolution and advanced avionics capabilities

Congestion in Terminal Maneuvering Area (TMA) in hub airports is the main problem in Chinese air transportation. In this paper we propose a new system to integrated sequence and merge aircraft to parallel runways at Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA). This system is based on the advanced avionics capabilities. Our methodology integrates a Multi-Level Point Merge (ML-PM) system, an economical descent approaches procedure, and a tailored heuristic algorithm to find a good, systematic, operationally-acceptable solution. First, Receding Horizontal Control (RHC) technique is applied to divide the entire 24 h of traffic into several sub-problems. Then in each sub-problem, it is optimized on given objectives (conflict, deviation from Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) on the runway and makespan of the arrival flow). Four decision variables are designed to control the trajectory: the entry time, the entry speed, the turning time on the sequencing leg, and the landing runway allocation. Based on these variables, the real time trajectories are generated by the simulation module. Simulated Annealing (SA) algorithm is used to search the best solution for aircraft to execute. Finally, the conflict-free, least-delay, and user-preferred trajectories from the entry point of TMA to the landing runway are defined. Numerical results show that our optimization system has very stable de-conflict performance to handle continuously dense arrivals in transition airspace. It can also provide the decision support to assist flow controllers to handle the asymmetric arrival flows on different runways with less fuel consumption, and to assist tactical controllers to easily re-sequence aircraft with more relaxed position shifting. Moreover, our system can provide the fuel consumption prediction, and runway assignment information to assist airport and airlines managers for optimal decision making. Theoretically, it realizes an automated, cooperative and green control of routine arrival flows. Although the methodology defined here is applied to the airport BCIA, it could also be applied to other airports in the world.     

Atmospheric CO2 measurements and error analysis on seasonal air–sea CO2 fluxes in the Bay of Biscay

Atmospheric molar fraction of CO₂ (xCO₂^atm) measurements obtained on board of ships of opportunity are used to parameterize the seasonal cycle of atmospheric xCO₂ (xCO₂^atm) in three regions of the eastern North Atlantic (Galician and French offshore and Bay of Biscay). Three selection criteria are established to eliminate spurious values and identify xCO₂^atm data representative of atmospheric background values. The filtered data set is fitted to seasonal curve, consisting of an annual trend plus a seasonal cycle. Although the fitted curves are consistent with the seasonal evolution of xCO₂^atm data series from land meteorological stations, only ship-board measurements can report the presence of winter xCO₂^atm minimum on Bay of Biscay. Weekly air–sea CO₂ flux differences (mmol C·m^− 2 day^− 1) produced by the several options of xCO₂^atm usually used (ship-board measurements, data from land meteorological stations and annually averaged values) were calculated in Bay of Biscay throughout 2003. Flux error using fitted seasonal curve relative to on board measurements was minimal, whereas land stations and annual means yielded random (− 0.2 ± 0.3 mmol C·m^− 2·day^− 1) and systematic (− 0.1 ± 0.4 mmol C·m^− 2 day^− 1), respectively. The effect of different available sources of sea level pressure, wind speed and transfer velocity were also evaluated. Wind speed and transfer velocity parameters are found as the most critical choice in the estimate of CO₂ fluxes reaching a flux uncertainty of 7 mmol C·m^− 2·day^− 1 during springtime. The atmospheric pressure shows a notable relative effect during summertime although its influence is quantitatively slight on annual scale (0.3 ± 0.2 mmol C·m^− 2·day^− 1). All results confirms the role of the Bay of Biscay as CO₂ sink for the 2003 with an annual mean CO₂ flux around − 5 ± 5 mmol C m^− 2 day^− 1.     

沥青路面早期破坏与养护对策研究

本文主要介绍了沥青路面早期损害的类型及成因,根据国内外目前的研究成果,主要论述了具有代表性的路面破坏形式,包括裂缝、变形、表面损坏和水损坏几种破坏形式,并在此基础上,重点研究了在道路养护中预防性养护时机的确定方法,对指导路面的养护工作具有重要的实际意义。     

Modelling lane changing and merging in microscopic traffic simulation

This paper introduces Simulation of Intelligent TRAnsport Systems (SITRAS), a massive multi-agent simulation system in which driver-vehicle objects are modelled as autonomous agents. The simulation outputs can be used for the evaluation of Intelligent Transport Systems applications such as congestion and incident management, public transport priority and dynamic route guidance. The model concepts and specifications, and the first applications of the model in the area of incident modelling in urban arterial networks were described in previous publications. This paper presents the details of the lane changing and merging algorithms developed for the SITRAS model. These models incorporate procedures for ‘forced’ and ‘co-operative’ lane changing which are essential for lane changing under congested (and incident-affected) traffic conditions. The paper describes the algorithms and presents simulation examples to demonstrate the effects of the implemented models. The results indicate that only the forced and cooperative lane changing models can produce realistic flow-speed relationships during congested conditions.     

基于时间窗的铁路空箱调运问题分析

首先介绍机会成本与重箱的经济效益。其次,从不考虑时间窗约束、软时间窗、只有硬时间窗、同时含有软时间窗和硬时间窗4个方面建立模型并加以约束,从而对空箱调运进行详细分析。最后得出想要提高整个铁路企业的经济效益,应将客户进行系统的划分,并区分其价值大小,然后将客户价值与调运成本相结合。     

互通立交与服务区、停车区合并设置方案探讨

文章阐述了在条件受限时,一般互通立交与服务区、停车区合并设置在几何设计方面存在的问题,并结合工程实践提出互通立交与服务区、停车区合并设置的建设方案,为今后进一步的研究提供参考。