Modelling acceleration decisions in traffic streams with weak lane discipline: A latent leader approach

Acceleration is an important driving manoeuvre that has been modelled for decades as a critical element of the microscopic traffic simulation tools. The state-of-the art acceleration models have however primarily focused on lane based traffic. In lane based traffic, every driver has a single distinct lead vehicle in the front and the acceleration of the driver is typically modelled as a function of the relative speed, position and/or type of the corresponding leader. On the contrary, in a traffic stream with weak lane discipline, the subject driver may have multiple vehicles in the front. The subject driver is therefore subjected to multiple sources of stimulus for acceleration and reacts to the stimulus from the governing leader. However, only the applied accelerations are observed in the trajectory data, and the governing leader is unobserved or latent. The state-of-the-art models therefore cannot be directly applied to traffic streams with weak lane discipline.This prompts the current research where we present a latent leader acceleration model. The model has two components: a random utility based dynamic class membership model (latent leader component) and a class-specific acceleration model (acceleration component). The parameters of the model have been calibrated using detailed trajectory data collected from Dhaka, Bangladesh. Results indicate that the probability of a given front vehicle of being the governing leader can depend on the type of the lead vehicle and the extent of lateral overlap with the subject driver. The estimation results are compared against a simpler acceleration model (where the leader is determined deterministically) and a significant improvement in the goodness-of-fit is observed. The proposed models, when implemented in microscopic traffic simulation tools, are expected to result more realistic representation of traffic streams with weak lane discipline.     

Is car drivers’ response to congestion charging schemes based on the correct perception of price signals?

This paper deals with the question of whether the capability of car drivers to estimate the cost of a new hypothetical, highly differentiated congestion charge influences their decision to change travel behaviour. The analysis makes use of an integrated choice and latent variable model (ICLV) which merges classic choice models with the structural equation approach (SEM) for latent variables. This hybrid model improves the explanatory power considerably compared with a conventional discrete choice model. The results suggest that charge complexity decreases the resistance in considering behavioural changes. Car drivers tend to avoid a travel option where the price is not known beforehand, a phenomenon known as ambiguity avoidance.     

Time-dependent green vehicle routing problem with stochastic vehicle speeds: An approximate dynamic programming algorithm

This paper addresses a Time Dependent Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem with stochastic vehicle speeds and environmental concerns. The problem has been formulated as a Markovian Decision Process. As distinct from the traditional attempts on the problem, while estimating the amount of fuel consumption and emissions, the model takes time-dependency and stochasticity of the vehicle speeds into account. The Time Dependent Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem is known to be NP-Hard for even deterministic settings. Incorporating uncertainty to the problem increases complexity, which renders classical optimization methods infeasible. Therefore, we propose an Approximate Dynamic Programming based heuristic as a decision aid tool for the problem. The proposed Markovian Decision Model and Approximate Dynamic Programming based heuristic are flexible in terms that more environmentally friendly solutions can be obtained by changing the objective function from cost minimization to emissions minimization. The added values of the proposed decision support tools have been shown through computational analyses on several instances. The computational analyses show that incorporating vehicle speed stochasticity into decision support models has potential to improve the performance of resulting routes in terms of travel duration, emissions and travel cost. In addition, the proposed heuristic provides promising results within relatively short computation times.     

Synopsis of bicycle demand in the City of Toronto: Investigating the effects of perception,consciousness and comfortability on the purpose of biking and bike ownership

This paper provides an empirical basis for the evaluation of policies and programs that can increase the usage of bikes for different purposes as well as bike ownership. It uses an integrated econometric model of latent variable connecting multiple discrete choices. Empirical models are estimated by using a bicycle demand survey conducted in the City of Toronto in 2009. Empirical investigations reveal that latent perceptions of ‘bikeability’ and ‘safety consciousness’ directly influence the choice of biking. It is also found that the choice of the level of bike ownership (number of bikes) is directly influenced by latent ‘comfortability of biking’. The number of bikes owned moreover has a strong influence on the choices of biking for different purposes. It is clear that bike users in the City of Toronto are highly safety conscious. Increasing on-street and separate bike lanes proved to have the maximum effects on attracting more people to biking by increasing the perception of bikeability in the city, comfortability of biking in the city and increasing bike users’ sense of safety. In terms of individuals’ characteristics, older males are found to be the most conformable and younger females are the least comfortable group of cyclists in Toronto.     

柴油机掺烧重柴油的可行性研究

本文从节能的角度出发,研究了中小型柴油机掺烧重柴油的可行性。作者选取具有代表性的2135型柴油机做掺烧重柴油的试验。根据实验结果对柴油机掺烧重柴油后的负荷特性和排放特性的进行了分析,结果表明中小型柴油机掺烧重柴油可行。     

A simulation of the simple Mohring model to predict patronage and value of resources consumed for enhanced bus services

Choosing between the competing approaches to providing enhanced bus services requires the ability to predict the effects on patronage and overall benefits to society in terms of Value of Resources Consumed (VRC) of any proposed change. One common approach uses the Mohring model of 1972 and its successors to optimise one or more aspects of the supply of transit services given various level of demand. This paper simulates the operation of a simple circular bus route using the equations of a basic Mohring type model and a Decision Support System (DSS) to endogenise demand under the assumption that there is a fixed demand for travel but commuters can choose between the bus and private vehicle. The selected approach recognises that demand for a particular mode of travel is predicated on the speed of the vehicle in service which is itself determined by the demand for that vehicle (in this model or boarding and alighting time) rather than being determined exogenously. This creates an iterative feedback mechanism whereby changes to the attributes of the bus and car alter mode choice and the speed in service of the bus which, in turn, alters mode choice. The simulation is used to predict changes to patronage and VRC under scenarios regarding changes to the transport network (in terms of fares and running costs, frequency and spacing of bus stops) using parameters from both a Multinomial Logit (MNL) and a Mixed Multinomial Logit (MMNL). The results demonstrate that there are large differences in the size and, in some cases, direction of predicted changes to patronage, VRC and revenue, depending on whether the parameters of the MNL or MMNL model are used.     

船用大型锅炉的水位研究及仿真

结合欧堡公司MISSION~(TM) D型船用锅炉,通过对影响水位的主要因素的分析,建立控制模型来实现对其仿真并达到预定的控制效果。     

Large-scale physical controls on phytoplankton growth in the Irminger Sea, Part II: Model study of the physical and meteorological preconditioning

The upper water column in the Irminger Sea is characterized by cold fresh arctic and subarctic waters and warm saline North Atlantic waters. In this study the local physical and meteorological preconditioning of the phytoplankton development over an annual cycle in the upper water column in four physical zones of the Irminger Sea is investigated. Data from four cruises of the UK's Marine Productivity programme are combined with results from a coupled biological–physical nitrogen–phytoplankton–zooplankton–detritus model run using realistic forcing. The observations and model predictions are compared and analyzed to identify the key parameters and processes which determine the observed heterogeneity in biological production in the Irminger Sea. The simulations show differences in the onset of the bloom, in the time of the occurrence of the maximum phytoplankton biomass and in the length of the bloom between the zones. The longest phytoplankton bloom of 90 days duration was predicted for the East Greenland Current of Atlantic origin zone. In contrast, for the Central Irminger Sea zone a phytoplankton bloom with a start at the beginning of May and the shortest duration of only 70 days was simulated. The latest onset of the phytoplankton bloom in mid May and the latest occurrence of the maximum biomass (end of July) were predicted for the Northern Irminger Current zone. Here the bloom lasted for 80 days. In contrast the phytoplankton bloom in the Southern Irminger Current zone started at the same time as in Central Irminger Sea, but peaked end of June and lasted for 80 days. For all four zones relatively low daily (0.3–0.5 g C m^− 2d^− 1) and annual primary production was simulated, ranging between 35.6 g C m^− 2y^− 1 in the East Greenland Current of Atlantic origin zone and 45.6 g C m^− 2y^− 1 in the Northern Irminger Current zone. The model successfully simulated the observed regional and spatial differences in terms of the maximum depth of winter mixing, the onset of stratification and the development of the seasonal thermocline, and the differences in biological characteristics between the zones. The initial properties of the water column and the seasonal cycle of physical and meteorological forcing in each of the zones are responsible for the observed differences during the Marine Productivity cruises. The timing of the transition from mixing to stratification regime, and the different prevailing light levels in each zone are identified as the crucial processes/parameters for the understanding of the dynamics of the pelagic ecosystem in the Irminger Sea.     

NT4-ADNF-9融合基因原核表达载体的构建

目的　构建神经营养素 (NT4 )与活性依赖性神经营养因子 9(ADNF 9)融合基因的原核表达载体pBV2 2 0 /NT4 ADNF 9,为进一步对神经系统退行性疾病基因治疗的研究奠定基础。方法　采用非对称互补引物 /模板法 ,制备两端含有酶切位点的ADNF 9的cDNA ,将其连接到NT的信号肽和前导序列的 3′端 ,组成融合基因NT4 ADNF 9,再将该融合基因亚克隆于原核表达载体pBV2 2 0 ,构建为pBV2 2 0 /NT4 ADNF 9。结果　经DNA测序 ,限制性内切酶酶切等方法证实已成功地将ADNF 9重组到NT4信号肽和前导序列的 3′端 ,并将融合基因亚克隆于pBV2 2 0内。结论　成功构建了NT4与ADNF 9融合基因的原核表达载体pBV2 2 0 /NT4 ADNF 9。     

CLINICAL ANALYSIS OF 52 CASES OF JUVENILE DIABETES MELLITUS

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