VMS行程时间诱导效益仿真算法

基于宏观交通仿真模型,提出了可变情报板(VMS)行程时间诱导效益仿真算法,分析了驾驶人的信息关注率和信息理解偏差系数对VMS行程时间诱导效益的影响。以行程时间计算模型和驾驶人信息响应模型与METANET仿真模型为理论基础,以路网总耗时改善率为诱导效益目标,在3种不同规模的路网上进行仿真试验。仿真结果表明:VMS行程时间对于改善路网运行效率通常具有正面的诱导效益;信息关注率越高,信息理解偏差系数越小,诱导效益越显著;当信息关注率为80%以上时,小型、中型、大型3种路网的诱导效益分别达到28.89%、15.87%、10.53%以上。可见,仿真算法有效。     

航班延误信息下旅客选择行为模型及实证

针对航班延误后旅客选择行为的不确定性,本文基于累积前景理论对不同延误情景下旅客的选择行为进行研究.首先,以期望出行时间作为旅客行为选择的参照点,构建航班延误信息下旅客选择行为模型,并指出在不同延误情景下参照点具有动态性特征;然后,利用调查问卷,得到准时到达敏感性、信息影响程度两个参数值及不同延误情景下旅客对出行时间的判断,计算得到期望出行时间;最后,以北京-上海航线为例,计算得到不同延误情景下旅客不同选择行为的累积前景值,从而得到旅客的最优选择行为.结果表明：随着航班延误规模的增大及延误时长的增加,旅客的期望出行时间随之增长,体现了参照点动态性的特点;在不同的延误情景下,旅客的最优选择行为有所差异;通过实际验证,理论模型能有效地描述旅客在不同延误情景下的选择行为.     

考虑出行者损失厌恶的后悔随机用户均衡模型

在经典随机后悔最小化模型的基础上,通过引入出行者获益损失的不对称偏好,建立了考虑出行者损失厌恶的属性水平的后悔函数及基于Logit形式的随机用户均衡模型.在提出的属性水平的后悔函数中,等尺度的获益和损失所产生的欣喜和后悔的差异,受后悔欣喜偏好参数和出行者损失厌恶共同影响.此外,与上述随机用户均衡模型等价的变分不等式问题被给出,并用相继平均法求解.最后,用1个算例网络来验证所提出模型的合理性和算法的可行性.结果表明,出行者的损失厌恶对其路径选择行为具有较大的影响,并且随着损失厌恶程度的增大,出行者更倾向于选择最短路径.     

铁路出发旅客衔接方式选择的复合异质性模型

鉴于多属性决策中存在的属性偏好和处理两类异质性现象,以铁路出发旅客衔接方式选择问题为对象,对两类异质性的效用表达进行了讨论,构建了能同时描述旅客属性偏好和处理异质性的复合异质性(Hybrid)非集计模型.采用成都东客站SP调查数据进行模型标定,结果表明,Hybrid模型的拟合度优于单一异质性模型.旅客属性处理规则自述结果与Hybrid模型分类结果的对比分析表明,模型对旅客属性处理特征的表达准确.进一步对不同类型旅客属性标定结果的分析显示,Hybrid模型可实现对衔接方式选择行为的精细化描述.     

汽车前保险杠系统模态分析中部件接触的研究

针对某车型前保险杠系统模态的有限元分析结果和试验结果进行了相关性分析,研究了吸能块和小腿保护杆与防撞梁和蒙皮的接触在前保险杠系统模态分析中的贡献量.探讨了接触对模态试验及模态有限元分析的影响机理.指出,在有限元模型中适当考虑接触,可显著提高计算结果的准确度,确保分析计算结果与试验结果的一致性.     

基于驾驶模拟器的雾天驾驶行为特性研究

在不同指令和速度反馈机制下进行了分组试验,模拟分析500,200,80,50和30 m能见度下驾驶速度选择和车道保持特性。结果表明：随着能见度的降低,车辆速度呈先升高后降低的趋势,实际速度与期望速度不匹配;除30 m能见度外,能见度降低未对驾驶员车道保持能力产生影响;80 m能见度下平均车速和车道保持率最高。     

A nested logit model of mode choice for inland movement of export shipments: A case study of containerised export cargo from India

Predominance of containerised mode of transport for export of general cargo has influenced the mode choices on the inland segment. Prior to containerisation the general cargo for export moved to ports invariably on road in break bulk form. Growth of containerisation led to development of inland terminals enabling an exporter to obtain export clearance at the inland points. This process facilitated an exporter to move cargo either in break bulk or in containerised form, and as inland terminals facilitated aggregation an exporter could move cargo either by road or rail. Thus containerisation increased the inland transport options for an exporter from one to three. The paper develops discrete choice models in the Indian context for inland movement of containerised export cargo. Primary data was collected from 124 export firms through a structured questionnaire. This data is supplemented with data from transport firms and terminal operators. Using the above data, a nested logit model with rail container and road truck in one branch was found to predict the mode choice behaviour best. Amongst the transport attributes, total cost and total transit time were found to be influencing the mode choices significantly. The study however did not find the effect of reliability and loss and damage significant. In addition, the model also predicts that non transport attributes - like the percentage of letters of credit that materialise with inland way bills and the value of export benefits that materialise after export - are important in the mode choice decision.     

Choosing Public Transport—Incorporating Richer Behavioural Elements in Modal Choice Models

The development of behaviourally richer representations of the role of well-established and increasingly important influences on modal choice, such as trip time reliability and accounting for risk attitude and process rules, has moved forward at a fast pace in the context of automobile travel. In the public transport setting, such contributions have, with rare exception, not been considered. In this paper, we discuss and empirically illustrate the merits of advanced modelling developments aimed at improving our understanding of public transport choice, namely the inclusion of reliability in extended expected utility theoretic forms, to recognize risk attitude and perceptual conditioning, the consideration of passenger crowding and its inclusion in linear additive models, and the role of multiple heuristics in representing attribute processing as a way of conditioning modal choice. We illustrate the mechanics of introducing these behaviourally appealing extensions using a modal choice data set collected in Sydney.     

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为更科学计算运输通道各种交通方式供给能力的配置量,运用随机效用理论和离散选择模型,建立基于动态广义费用的交通方式选择Logit模型,以郑州-西安客运通道为实例,运用Matlab软件编写程序,进行求解验证.研究表明,交通方式建设成本分摊随分担量变化而变化,并与随机感知系数和出行时间价值一起影响各方式分担率.与现有模型的对比表明,各方式分担率变化幅度与建设成本大小差异并非同向;交通方式选择的广义费用是动态变化的,不能仅仅依据静态的在途时间和票价进行方式分担率计算.该模型既能保证出行者的个体要求又能保障各种交通方式的持续运营,所计算的通道各交通方式分担率更符合实际.     

某特大桥整体连续梁病害分析及加固

以实际运营中的整体连续梁桥实例为背景,对该桥梁目前运用状况、桥梁的病害进行分析,针对桥梁的实际情况提出多项加固方法,并对整体连续梁加固方法进行方案比选,论述加固措施的合理性,为该类桥梁加固工程提供参考。