舰载反鱼雷鱼雷对抗行为分析与建模

为提高舰载反鱼雷鱼雷（ATT）对抗鱼雷的作战效率,研究ATT在多种方案下拦截鱼雷的问题。针对以往ATT二维对抗态势模型的不足,建立三维立体空间下的ATT运动学模型、鱼雷运动模型、ATT/鱼雷自导模型以及误差模型,运用MATLAB工具对ATT的对抗过程进行推演,并采用蒙特卡洛法定量分析ATT发射距离对不同拦截方案下拦截概率的影响。仿真结果表明,该模型可以用于舰载ATT对抗方案的定量评价。     

汽车车外安全气囊技术探讨

为了提高对行人的安全保护,减轻或避免汽车碰撞损失,各国都在进行车外安全气囊的研究开发。文章参考大量数据与文献,介绍了国内外气囊技术的发展现状,详述了不同位置的车外安全气囊的结构、功能,分析得出未来汽车安全气囊的发展趋势及开发难点。随着安全气囊技术的成熟,未来汽车安全化、人性化的发展趋势,安全气囊的保护范围也将进一步扩大。     

道路交通统计生命价值测算模型及其验证

基于参数服从SB分布的混合Logit 模型进行道路交通统计生命价值的测算研究. 首先，结合意愿选择法和正交实验法设计出行路径选择调查问卷；然后，基于死亡风险系数服从对数正态分布和SB分布的混合Logit 模型，构建统计生命价值测算模型；接着以大连市私家车出行者为调查对象获得调查数据，并利用Monte Carlo 仿真方法进行模型参数标定；最后，对模型进行比较分析，并获得统计生命价值的测算值. 研究结果表明：死亡风险参数服从限制域为(0.0, 0.5)SB分布的混合Logit 模型，精确性更高且更合理；道路交通统计生命价值测算值为 105.76万元，这一结果可以作为道路交通安全项目经济评价的参考数据.     

Simulation Modeling and Analysis of Operator-Machine Ratio

Introduction In recent years, labor cost in China is continu-ously and significantly increasing across industries.More and more companies, particularly semiconduc-tor companies, are taking strategies to cut labor costwithout impairing normal production. Operator-ma-chine ratio (OMR) denotes the maximum number oftools a laborer can operate. It is a measure of opera-tion efficiency of an operator and one of key factors toensure the competitiveness.The traditional static Excel model[1]involvin…     

基于对象Petri子网模型的列车群分布式仿真

为提高效率,增强真实度和可信度,采用分布式仿真解决列车群行为的分析和验证问题,并基于列车群的对象Petri子网模型(TGOSOPS)实施分布式仿真系统。针对模型到仿真系统的逻辑映射、运行中的动态关联以及依靠模型处理仿真冲突和时间协调等问题,提出由终端上的列车仿真应用模块和服务器上的全局控制模块构成分布式仿真系统框架,并对TGOSOPS按照功能进行划分,使其和分布式框架有机结合和映射。根据系统结构,结合动态离散事件系统的仿真思想,明确系统中各类实体和事件间的逻辑关系,采用定时与主动对象(主动成分)扫描相结合的方法,建立分布式仿真策略,包括客户端和服务器端两部分,从而实现模型到系统的动态关联,并采用空消息算法消除策略死锁。采用一个统一的全局时钟来调整局部时钟的时间周期,以实现分布时钟的协调。路网图、运行图、模型库和各种信息库等都以全局数据库的形式存储在服务器上,在仿真过程中,根据实验推进的需要可以随时从服务器上读入所需信息和数据。     

循环式燃油系统的仿真和优化

本又研究了一种适合劣质燃油（重油）的新型循环式燃油系统（一泵二嘴四阀），并建立了描述新型喷油器的四区模型，以及用于燃油分配器和新型喷油泵的仿真模型。仿真结果与试验结果较为吻合。本文还进行了不同功率点变型方案的仿真研究和结构参数的优化设计分析，以满足不同船舶的需要。     

汽车防抱制动系统的自寻最优控制

通过分析车轮制动的工作原理，提出了汽车防抱制动系统的自寻最优控制方法。仿真结果表明，在不同的路况下，防抱制动系统的自寻最优控制取得了满意的效果。文中提出的自寻最优控制方法相对以往的控制方法更为简单，更适合于实际应用。     

A competing Markov model for cracking prediction on civil structures

Cracks on the surface of civil structures (e.g. pavement sections, concrete structures) progress in several formations and under different deterioration mechanisms. In monitoring practice, it is often that cracking type with its worst damage level is selected as a representative condition state, while other cracking types and their damage levels are neglected in records, remaining as hidden information. Therefore, the practice in monitoring has a potential to conceal with a bias selection process, which possibly result in not optimal intervention strategies. In overcoming these problems, our paper presents a non-homogeneous Markov hazard model, with competing hazard rates. Cracking condition states are classified in three types (longitudinal crack, horizontal crack, and alligator crack), with three respective damage levels. The dynamic selection of cracking condition states are undergone a competing process of cracking types and damage levels. We apply a numerical solution using Bayesian estimation and Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to solve the problem of high-order integration of complete likelihood function. An empirical study on a data-set of Japanese pavement system is presented to demonstrate the applicability and contribution of the model.     

Evaluating the effects of bus design on passenger flow: Is agent-based simulation a feasible approach?

In this paper, we propose an agent-based simulation approach that is capable of simulating the flow of passengers on board buses and at bus stops. The intention is that it will be applied during vehicle development to analyze how vehicle design affects passenger flow, and thus also how it affects system performance such as dwell time. In turn, this could aid the developers in making design decisions early in the development process. Besides introducing the simulation tool itself, the paper explores the realism of the data generated by the tool. A number of passenger flow experiments featuring a full-scale bus mockup and 50 participants were carried out. The setup of these experiments mirrored a number of ‘bus journeys’ (regarding vehicle design, number of passengers boarding/alighting at each stop and so on) that had previously been simulated using the simulation tool. When the data from the simulations were compared with the data from the passenger flow experiments, it could be concluded that the tool is indeed able to generate realistic passenger flows, although with some errors when a large number of passengers board/alight. The simulated dwell times were rationally affected by the tested bus layout aspects. It was concluded that the tool makes it possible to evaluate how variations in bus layouts affect passenger flow, providing data of sufficiently high quality to be useful in early phases of vehicle design.     

A traffic-condition-based route guidance strategy for a single destination road network

Most of existing route guidance strategies achieves user optimal equilibrium by comparing travel time. Measuring travel time, however, might be uneasy on an urban road network. To contend with the issue, the paper mainly considers easily obtained inflow and outflow of a link and road capacity as input, and proposes a route guidance strategy for a single destination road network based on the determination of free-flow or congested conditions on alternative routes. An extended strategy for a complex network and a feedback approximation for avoiding forecast are further explored. Weaknesses of the strategy are also explicitly analyzed. To test the strategy, simulation investigations are conducted on two networks with multiple parallel routes. The results indicate that the strategy is able to provide stable splitting rates and to approximate user optimal equilibrium in different conditions, in particular when traffic demand is high. This strategy has potential to be applied in an urban road network due to its simplicity and easily obtained input data. The strategy is also applicable for single destination if some alternatives and similar routes are available.