Development of railway station choice models to improve the representation of station catchments in rail demand models

ABSTRACT

This paper describes the development of railway station choice models suitable for defining probabilistic station catchments. These catchments can then be incorporated into the aggregate demand models typically used to forecast demand for new rail stations. Revealed preference passenger survey data obtained from the Welsh and Scottish Governments was used for model calibration. Techniques were developed to identify trip origins and destinations from incomplete address information and to automatically validate reported trips. A bespoke trip planner was used to derive mode-specific station access variables and train leg measures. The results from a number of multinomial logit and random parameter (mixed) logit models are presented and their predictive performance assessed. The models were found to have substantially superior predictive accuracy compared to the base model (which assumes the nearest station has a probability of one), indicating that their incorporation into passenger demand forecasting methods has the potential to significantly improve model predictive performance.     

Structural Optimization and Strength Analysis of the Lifting Arm of a Wet Shotcrete Spraying Unit北大核心CSCD

Wet shotcrete spraying units are widely used in underground engineering, for railways, highways, water conservancy and hydropower stations, municipal works, mining and military and other industries. Structural analysis and mechanical behavior optimization are conducted regarding the lifting arm of a TKJ series shotcrete spraying unit, and optimization of the hinge point position and working scope of the lifting arm is realized. The optimal layout scheme for the hinge force is given based on the Monte Carlo method, the hinge force of the lifting arm is improved for the mean and maximum values, and the maximum and average hinge force of the lifting cylinder decrease by 23.14% and 7.70%, respectively, compared with that of the original scheme. The static strength is checked using Ansys-Workbench for the optimized scheme, and the results show that the optimized scheme has a larger safety re-serve and that the structural design is more reasonable than the original scheme. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.     

Environmental impacts of public transport systems using real-time control method

Public Transport (PT) systems rely more and more on online information extracted from both operator’s intelligent equipment and user’s smartphone applications. This allows for a better fit between supply and demand of the multimodal PT system, especially through the use of PT real-time control actions/tactics. In doing so there is also an opportunity to consider environmental-related issues to approach energy saving and reduced pollution. This study investigates and analyses the benefits of using real-time PT operational tactics in reducing the undesirable environmental impacts. A tactic-based control (TBC) optimization model is used to minimize total passenger travel time and maximize direct transfers (without waiting). The model consists of a control policy built upon a combination of three tactics: holding, skip-stops, and boarding limit. The environmental-related measure is the global warming potential (GWP) using the life cycle assessment technique. The methodology developed is applied to a real life case study in Auckland, New Zealand. Results show that TBC could reduce the GWP by means of reduction of total passenger travel times and vehicle travel cycle time. That is, the TBC model results in a 5.6% reduction in total GWP per day compared with an existing no-tactic scenario. This study supports the use of real-time control actions to maintain a reliable PT service, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and subsequently moving towards greener PT systems.     

某船用柴油机SCR尿素喷射系统结构参数仿真优化

在建立的SCR系统三维仿真模型基础上,首先通过仿真性能分析,初步确定了尿素喷嘴位置、喷孔直径、喷孔数目及喷射方向等尿素喷射结构参数范围,然后采用正交试验法确定尿素喷射结构参数仿真试验方案。以NO_X转化率为优化目标,通过极差分析和方差分析得到优化的尿素喷射结构参数方案为:喷嘴与催化剂入口距离为7倍管径,喷嘴孔数为6孔,喷嘴孔径为0.6 mm,喷射锥角为30°。     

基于正交设计的船用柴油机燃烧系统参数匹配及优化

为研究柴油机燃烧系统参数匹配对柴油机动力和排放性能的影响,首先分别利用AVL_BOOST和AVL_FIRE仿真软件建立4190ZLC-2型船用柴油机整机模型和缸内燃烧高压循环模型,然后基于已建模型应用正交试验设计方法安排柴油机进气系统、喷油系统和燃烧室结构尺寸参数匹配仿真计算。研究结果表明,通过极差分析可以得出燃烧系统参数对4190ZLC-2型柴油机性能的影响主次顺序。以柴油机指示功率为评价指标时,参数组合0.26 mm-28°CA-160°-0.9-145 mm-2.6 mm-22 mm(喷孔直径-喷油提前角-油束夹角-涡流比-喉口直径-凸台高度-凹坑半径)对应的指示功率为63.40 k W,比原机仿真值高15%;以NOX排放为评价指标时,参数组合0.30 mm-24°CA-140°-0.4-135 mm-6.6 mm-14 mm(喷孔直径-喷油提前角-油束夹角-涡流比-喉口直径-凸台高度-凹坑半径)对应的NOX排放质量分数为0.015 7%,比原机仿真值低30.2%。     

小型双甲板远洋拖网渔船结构优化设计

针对34.5 m双甲板远洋拖网渔船,考虑船东使用后提出的建议,依据《钢质海洋渔船建造规范(2015)》要求对船体结构进行最优化设计,着重对加工间和机舱做到空间最大化,尽可能优化上层结构;利用ANSYS对龙门架选用高强度钢来减小板厚进行分析,加强球鼻结构,减少舷墙构件,做到既符合规范要求又满足渔民实际使用要求。结果表明:优化设计使得机舱空间更合理,结构连续性更好,减轻了上层质量,降低了钢料重心。     

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为了适应经济发展，我国许多城市加快了轨道交通的建设步伐。私营公司与政府签订合作协议，共同参与运营管理，这打破了以往一家运营商的垄断局面。如何在保证高质量的运营效率的同时，兼顾各家运营商的收益分配，运费清分的研究显得十分重要。本文分析了影响清分的主要因素和原则，建立有效路径选择模型和基于概率的多路径选择模型。采用改进的遍历算法以保证有效路径集的完整性。利用c++程序计算出各条路径的分担比例和各家运营商的清分比例，给出了提高清分比例的研究结论和建议。     

强迫布鲁塞尔振子相图的研究

针对强迫布鲁塞尔振子模型的Ｆａｒｅｙ序列与Ｍ．Ｓ．Ｓ序列进行了扩大区域的研究，表明单峰映中看成圆映象的近似，并建立了圆映象的相图，单峰映象的相图及符号动力学间的关系。     

Optimal planning of liquefied natural gas deliveries

We investigate the problem of designing an optimal annual delivery plan for Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). This problem requires determining the long-term cargo delivery dates and the assignment of vessels to the cargoes while accommodating several constraints, including berth availability, liquefaction terminal inventory, planned maintenance, and bunkering requirements. We describe a novel mixed-integer programming formulation that captures important industry requirements and constraints with the objective of minimizing the vessel fleet size. A peculiar property of the proposed formulation is that it includes a polynomial number of variables and constraints and is, in our experience, computationally tractable for large problem instances using a commercial solver. Extensive computational runs demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed model for real instances provided by a major energy company that involve up to 118 cargoes and a 373-day planning horizon.     

干扰功率控制技术在雷达抗干扰测试中的应用

研究基于等效模型的功率控制方法在雷达抗干扰性能测试中的技术应用。介绍了功率控制技术的提出背景和技术特点,重点分析了功率控制的等效模型和设计方法。详细叙述了功率控制技术在雷达抗干扰测试中的一个典型应用。