Some features of non-linear travel time models for dynamic traffic assignment

Abstract

This paper investigates some features of non-linear travel time models for dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) that adopt traffic on the link as the sole determinant for the calculation of travel time and have explicit relationships between travel time and traffic on the link. Analytical proofs and numerical examples are provided to show first-in-first-out (FIFO) violation and the behaviour of decreasing outflow with increasing traffic in non-linear travel time models. It is analytically shown that any non-linear travel time model could violate FIFO in some circumstances, especially when inflow drops sharply, and some convex non-linear travel time models could show behaviour with outflow decreasing as traffic increases. It is also shown that the linear travel time model does not show these behaviours. A non-linear travel time model in general form was used for analytical proofs and several existing non-linear travel time models were adopted for numerical examples. Considering the features addressed in this study, non-linear travel time models seem to have limitations for use in DTA in practical terms and care should be taken when they are used for modelling time-varying transportation networks.     

Approaches and Techniques for Modelling CO2 Emissions from Road Transport

Abstract

Transport accounts for around a quarter of CO₂ emissions globally. Transport modelling provides a useful means to explore the dynamics, scale and magnitude of transport-related emissions. This paper explores the modelling tools available for analysing the emissions of CO₂ from transport. Covering a range of techniques from transport microsimulation to global techno-economic models, this review provides insights into the various advantages and shortcomings of these tools. The paper also examines the value of having a broad range of perspectives for analysing emissions from transport. The paper concludes by suggesting that the broad range of models creates a rich environment for exploring a spectrum of policy questions around the emissions from transport, and the potential for combining modelling approaches further enhances the understanding that can be attained.     

Shipment forecasting for supply chain collaborative transportation management using grey models with grey numbers

The sharing of forecasts is vital to supply chain collaborative transportation management (CTM). Shipment forecasting is fundamental to CTM, and is essential to carrier tactical and operational planning processes such as network planning, routing, scheduling, and fleet planning and assignment. By applying and extending grey forecasting theory, this paper develops a series of shipment forecasting models for supply chain CTM. Grey time-series forecasting and grey systematic forecasting models are developed for shipment forecasting under different collaborative frameworks. This paper also integrates grey numbers with grey models for analyzing shipment forecasting under partial information sharing in CTM frameworks. An example of an integrated circuit (IC) supply chain and relevant data are provided. The proposed models yield more accurate prediction results than regression, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), and neural network models. Finally, numerical results indicate that as the degree of information sharing increases under CTM, carrier prediction accuracy increases. This paper demonstrates how the proposed forecasting models can be applied to the CTM system and provides the theoretical basis for the forecasting module developed for supply chain CTM.     

混沌微粒群算法在离散型生产调度中的应用

本文基于离散型生产调度问题的定义、约束条件,建立了相应的数学模型,针对微粒群算法后期容易陷入局部最优解且收敛速度慢的特点,提出了混沌的微粒群算法.详细介绍了混沌微粒群算法在离散型生产调度的优化流程,并将该算法用于实际项目,进行优化求解,与基本的微粒群算法对比得出更好的结果,验证了混沌微粒群算法的优越性.     

基于ARCH族模型的沿海煤炭运价指数波动性评价

为较好的刻画我国沿海煤炭运价指数的内在波动规律,采用描述金融时间序列波动性的ARCH族模型进行分析.选取上海航运交易所发布的我国沿海煤炭综合运价指数、秦皇岛-广州、秦皇岛-上海、秦皇岛-宁波3条航线煤炭运价指数为实证研究对象,结果表明:煤炭运价指数收益率序列呈现明显的尖峰厚尾性;GARCH模型能较好的描述煤炭运价指数波动的敏感性及持续性;EGARCH,TGARCH模型能较好的反应煤炭运价指数波动的非对称性.     

交通拥堵与温室气体排放

缓解拥堵项目可减少温室气体排放,但基于单个变量(如仅基于出行距离)的CO2排放预测并不精确.为了准确预测缓堵项目减少的CO2排放量,利用车辆运行检测技术、车辆活动数据库及根据车辆类型设计的排放模型,通过分析速度与排放的关系绘制速度-排放曲线,并结合交通运行检测数据,评价缓堵策略、速度管理策略、交通平滑策略等交通运行管理...     

武广客运专线动车组运用优化模型及求解思路

动车组运用是客运专线运营的重要内容,通过动车组的运用优化可以有效的提高动车组运用效率以及客运专线运营效率。在给定列车运行图条件下,动车组所属权、检修规程、运用方式和作业时间标准是影响其运用计划编制的重要内容。针对武广客运专线,在分析武广客运专线动车组的修程修制和运用方式的基础上,结合给定的列车开行方案,以完成列车运行图任务所需动车组数量最少和动车组运用率均衡为目标,建立了考虑日常检修和一级检修的武广客运专线动车组运用优化模型,并给出了该优化模型的求解思路。作者首先将该模型简化为单目标规划问题,然后将其转化为动车组运用的TSP网络模型,该模型可以用蚁群算法进行求解。     

客运专线与既有线衔接车站到发线运用优化研究

客运专线与既有线连接的跨线车站是实现客流和列流交互的关键节点,其到发线运用的好坏直接关系两个铁路系统的运输协调问题。论文在分析衔接车站作业内容和特点基础上,提出了衔接车站到发线编制和调整的原则,根据这一原则构建了具有动车场和普速客车场的衔接站到发线运用计划优化编制模型。并提出了模型求解的思路。     

交通运输信息融合功能模型

综述一般信息融合功能模型和交通运输信息融合应用的进展,指出这两个方面的联系和差异.针对交通运输应用的信息本质和功能特性,提出交通运输信息融合的一般定义,并建立了交通运输信息融合功能模型.模型对信源引入机器信息与认知信息的划分,提出了分属机器信息和认知信息两个层次的采集校验融合、状态特征融合、预测评估融合、规划设计融合和综合决策融合五级信息融合功能,提供了五级融合功能的三种应用模式,实现了不同交通运输应用功能与信息操作功能的衔接,与一般多传感器数据融合功能模型具有统一性.论文还以交通拥挤管理问题为例,给出了相应的信息融合功能模型.     

非机动车跟驰模型的研究

交通仿真技术的广泛应用,提高了方案预测的准确性和实时再现性。在以模拟机动车为主的仿真软件不能较好满足国内混合交通的背景下,非机动车跟驰模型的研究尤为重要。论文首先参照机动车定义了非机动车的虚拟行车道,提出了跟驰状态的判断条件,以此作为非机动车跟驰行为的研究基础。其次,以车辆间应保持的最小安全车头间距为思路,充分考虑非机动车中电动自行车与自行车之间的差异,构建了非机动车的跟驰模型。最后,将模型所涉及的参数与宏观的交通流参数联系起来,通过流量、速度和密度关系,验证了模型的有效性。研究对于完善现有的交通仿真软件具有一定的参考和实用价值。