大型集装箱船迎浪航行的外飘砰击压力研究

该文采用直接计算法研究一艘大型集装箱船迎浪航行时的外飘砰击压力特点。先基于三维势流理论Rankine面元法,应用DNV船级社的商业软件Wasim计算出该船在压载时不同海况下以不同航速航行时在非规则波中时域内的非线性运动响应时历,再根据Wagner型冲击理论计算得到该集装箱船艏外飘区域的外飘砰击压力。最后,依据概率随机理论,得到不同工况下的外飘砰击概率以及外飘砰击压力极值,并分析概率和极值特点。     

A structural equation model of activity participation and travel behavior using longitudinal data

Abstract

This paper presents a dynamic structural equation model (SEM) that explicitly addresses complicated causal relationships among socio-demographics, activity participation, and travel behavior. The model assumes that activity participation and travel patterns in the current year are affected by those in previous years. Using the longitudinal dataset collected from Puget sound transportation panel ‘wave 3’ and ‘wave 4,’ these assumptions are tested with suggested SEMs. Within each wave, the model is structured to have a three-level causal relationship that describes interactions among endogenous variables under time-budget constraints. The resulting coefficients representing the activity durations indicate that people tend to allocate their time according to the importance and the obligation of the activity level. Results from the dynamic SEM confirm the fact that people's current activity and travel behavior do have effects on those in the future. The resulting model also shows that activity participation and travel behavior in ‘wave 3’ are closely related to those in ‘wave 4.’ These explicit explanations of relationships among variables could provide important perspectives in the activity-based approach which becomes recognized as a better analytical tool for the transportation planning and policy making process.     

Office location — city or suburbs?

Suburban offices constitute a growing proportion of the metropolitan office stock in Melbourne. The relocation of around 1700 Coles Myer employees from the Central Business District to Tooronga, 8.5 km south east from the GPO, is an example of office decentralisation. A study of the resultant impacts arising from the relocation has been conducted utilising a before-the-move and after-the-move survey of Coles Myer employees. Both surveys generated response rates in excess of 60%. Office relocation can have various short and long term impacts on employees and will influence decisions relating to residential location, car ownership and the resultant travel and activity patterns. It is not until these impacts are quantified that planners can gain acceptance for strategies designed to minimise the negative impacts associated with dispersed employment opportunities.This paper discuses the suburbanisation of office employment in Melbourne and studies the travel related effect on the employees, whose headoffice is relocated from the CAD to a suburban location. One of the great challenges for transport in the 90's will be the successful management of office location and the resultant impacts on travel.Abbreviations CAD Central Activities District; the CAD is defined as a slightly larger area than that previously referred to as the Central Business District (CBD)     

A review of separate and joint strategies for the use of data on revealed and stated choices

This paper examines recent developments in household travel surveys that collect data for use in transportation planning and modeling efforts. The paper then introduces the notion of a total survey design and elaborates on what is meant by this concept. This is done first in the context of standard surveys of revealed choices. The paper discusses aspects of content and respondent burden and illustrates the potential to reduce respondent burden through careful consideration of content, question design, and question ordering. The paper also explores some issues of survey "friendliness" particularly with respect to activity surveys versus time-use surveys, with some observations about the potential of time-use surveys to eliminate some of the burden and content problems of previous diary designs. The remainder of the paper concentrates on the issue of collecting stated-response data and examines two alternative methods for collection: simultaneous collection of the contextual information and "on-the-fly" development of the alternatives for the stated-response questions, or sequential collection of contextual data and development of the stated-response questions. The paper also addresses issues of respondent burden that arise in the administration of stated-response surveys. The paper concludes with exploration of some of the reasons for collecting stated-response data, with particular emphasis on the US situation. In conclusion, the paper stresses again the need for a total design concept for collection of stated-response data, as well as for the simpler collection of more standard revealed choice data.     

A study on the determinants of private car ownership in China: Findings from the panel data

This study examines the determinants of private car ownership in China. The target cities are 32 provincial capital cities and the target period is from 2001 to 2011. In order to capture the individual effects (heterogeneity), the fixed and random effect models are adopted and compared, in which 8 explanatory variables are selected to include economic characteristics, urban characteristics, and transportation characteristics. Moreover, double natural logarithm model is employed to measure the elastic relationship between the private car ownership and regressors. The estimated results show that the fixed effect model performs better than pooled regression model and the random effect model. In addition, there are variations of private car ownership among cities and regions. Finally, the influence of factors responsible for these variations is also presented and discussed in this paper.     

Applying measures of modelling quality to a national time series: a benchmark for transport demand models

ABSTRACT

In current urban planning practice, macroscopic transport demand and assignment models are essential for the evaluation of mid- and long-term land use developments and infrastructure investments. The credibility of their projections strongly depends on their ability to reproduce present day traffic volumes. Obviously, a simplified model of reality will display some shortcomings, and the effect of these is asserted by quality measures that quantify the divergence from observed traffic volumes. There is, however, only rough guidance regarding acceptable ranges of these measures. Most of the literature on this subject approach these ranges from below, by discussing measures attained by operational models and using these as a benchmark, or by using the adverse effects of modelling errors to derive a minimum quality level. On the contrary, this study suggests upper limits for quality measures by analysing year-on-year variations in traffic volumes that result from changing land use and infrastructure.     

Promoting Cycling for Transport: Research Needs and Challenges

Abstract

Near future travel-time information is one of the most critical factors that travellers consider before making trip decisions. In efforts to provide more reliable future travel-time estimations, transportation engineers have examined various techniques developed in the last three decades. However, there have not been sufficiently systematic and through reviews so far. In order to effectively support various transportation strategies and applications including Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), it is necessary to apply appropriate forecasting methods for matching circumstances in a timely manner. This paper conducts a comprehensive review study focusing on literatures, including modern techniques proposed recently, related to travel time and traffic condition predictions that are based on ‘data-driven' approaches. Based on the underlying mechanisms and theoretical principles, different approaches are categorized as parametric (linear regression and time series) and non-parametric approaches (artificial intelligence and pattern searching). Then, the approaches are analysed for their strengths, potential weaknesses, and performances from five main perspectives that are prediction range, accuracy, efficiency, applicability, and robustness.     

外接平板型金属夹层结构连接构件极限强度分析

激光焊接钢质夹层结构在国外已用于实船,其连接形式是亟待解决的关键问题之一。基于有限元分析软件ANSYS,研究了面内载荷作用下,I型金属夹层结构外接平板型连接构件的失效模式和极限承载能力,以及5种典型初始缺陷的尺寸和连接构件的设计参数对极限载荷的影响规律。结果显示,连接构件较短时,结构失效的主导因素是焊接接头形成了塑性铰;连接构件较长时,主导因素是连接构件失稳。对于各种类型的初始缺陷,随初始缺陷尺寸的增大,极限载荷均降低;连接构件、以及靠近连接构件的夹层面板和夹层腹板的初始缺陷对极限载荷的影响较大。在控制重量的条件下,欲增大极限承载能力,最有效的途径是增大连接构件厚度,并选取合适的连接构件长度。     

基于全耦合分析技术的折叠式夹层板船体结构碰撞性能研究

船舶碰撞事故往往会带来灾难性的后果,船舶碰撞性能以及耐撞结构设计方面的研究一直受到国内外学者的重视。本文基于全耦合数值仿真分析技术,以一多用途船舷侧结构为研究对象,设计出两种夹层板新式抗冲击舷侧结构,并对原结构和新式结构的碰撞性能进行比较。研究结果表明,新式舷侧结构发生损伤变形的区域较大,参与抵抗撞击的构件增多,损伤变形程度有所降低,且在总重量相当的条件下总吸能有大幅提高,可以有效缓解高能碰撞对结构的危害。     

Modal shift implications of e-bike use in the Netherlands: Moving towards sustainability?

This paper investigates the modal shift patterns of e-bike users in the Dutch context. We focus on the change in e-bikers’ travel behavior to assess whether this change benefits sustainability. Our study provides direct ecologically valid evidence on modal shift by using a longitudinal dataset from the Netherlands Mobility Panel survey. We examine e-bikers’ modal shift patterns before and after acquiring an e-bike. The findings indicate that after e-bike adoptions, conventional bike use reduces significantly, while car use reduces less strongly. Nonetheless, the share of car kilometers is much larger than that of conventional bikes at the baseline. Besides, the emission rate per passenger kilometer of an e-bike is several times lower than that of a car. These imply a net environmental gain after e-bike adoptions. The present study also sheds light on modal shifts at a disaggregated level by investigating those e-bikers who are more likely to drive less after e-bike adoption. The findings suggest that e-bikers younger than 50 and those around retirement age (60–69) seem more likely to step out of their cars. Additionally, people living in rural areas tend to be more likely to reduce their car use than their counterparts in highly urbanized areas. Based on our findings, we present policy recommendations for achieving a greener shift in mobility systems.