船舶倾斜对不同行人流疏散效率影响的数值分析

为研究船舶倾斜对船上人员疏散过程的影响,在基础社会力模型中引入行人倾斜力和自调整力,构建一种考虑船舶倾斜状态的改进社会力模型,通过比对前人实验结果验证模型的有效性.增加行人视角范围,确定周围行人作用的有效范围;结合MATLAB仿真单向、对向、交叉和多向行人流场景,分析不同倾斜状态对行人疏散速度的影响,并拟合疏散时间随倾...     

基于多属性决策方法的高速列车运行计划评价研究

为有效利用高速铁路车站和区段通过能力,提高铁路客、货运输能力,必须提高高速列车运行计划的质量,确保铁路运输生产稳定有序.从高速列车运行计划的评价指标分析与选择入手,运用多属性决策方法,对列车运行计划的指标值进行赋值和规范化,采用熵权法确定评价指标权重,运用理想点法求解最佳方案;通过计算实例,对该评价方法的可行性与合理性...     

发展新能源汽车保障我国能源安全的路径研究

目前我国石油、天然气对外依存度日益提高,能源安全形势日益严峻,汽车产业是原油消耗快速增长的重要原因,发展新能源汽车产业已成为全球共识。文章深入研究了国内外能源发展现状,从能源供给安全、能源运输安全、能源消费安全和能源环境安全等方面分析了发展新能源汽车的重要作用,并提出了以发展新源汽车优化能源消费革命为突破口,推动能源生产革命和能源技术革命,综合维护我国能源安全的发展建议。     

Real-time assessment and prediction on maritime risk state on the Arctic Route

ABSTRACT

Recently, the Arctic Route has become busier with the continuous melting of Arctic ice. However, navigation on the Arctic Route would be much more complex than in normal water as harsh environmental conditions, such as ice-covered water and scarce costal ports that may cause more uncertainty. Nowadays, with the rapid development of sensors on board, more related data has become available. Thus, implementing comprehensive Arctic maritime risk assessment is urgent and necessary in practice. This study proposes an Arctic maritime risk state assessment method including real-time risk state assessment and risk prediction. Specifically, real-time observation samples’ numerical risk state would be firstly obtained with projection pursuit method from 10 risk indicators. Due to the fuzzy uncertainty of single observation set, information diffusion would be applied to provide diffusion estimation on risk probability distribution in order to depict risk state precisely. Also, the accumulated distribution can be regarded as the risk prediction for next time slot and risk entropy is introduced to depict risk tendency directly. Case study based on ‘Yongsheng’ is conducted to demonstrate and verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. The findings can be useful for the operators and management on board during the Arctic voyage.     

浅谈项目成本管理中的现金流技术

现金流在施工企业及其项目管理中的重要性不容置疑,在项目投标阶段及实施过程中,对现金流进行预测和干预的必要性不容争议。     

Kolmogorov熵在船舶电力系统可靠性研究中的应用

混沌分析和非线性特性的故障识别一直是船舶电力系统可靠性研究中的重点和难点,本文应用Kolmogorov熵分析和研究船舶电力系统的可靠性.通过计算和分析不同状态下船舶电力系统的K熵,得到了船舶电力系统的混沌定量判据,使船舶电力系统混沌分析与电力系统的可靠性研究结合起来,为船舶电力系统可靠性研究提供新的方法和思路,同时将K熵的计算数值作为电力系统中故障的特征值来识别系统的故障.实验表明了该方法的有效性和可行性.     

基于能量熵的船舶电力系统脆性分析

首次将能量熵引入到船舶电力系统脆性研究中,定义研究船舶电力系统的电压熵、电流熵、频率熵.通过对船舶电力系统能量熵的研究,为船舶电力系统脆性熵的研究提供理论基础和重要的参考依据.仿真表明,能量熵能反映船舶电力系统的脆性特性.     

隧穿量子点分子模型与光场相互作用的熵特性

用全量子论研究了微腔中量子化光场与隧穿量子点分子模型相互作用系统的熵特性,导出了量子点系统熵（场熵）的计算公式,讨论了不同的初始光场对量子点系统熵（场熵）的影响。结果表明：初始光场处在相干态情况下,随着失谐量△的增大,场熵的周期明显加强,但场熵的均值却不断减小,这表明失谐量的增加,导致光场与量子点分子的关联减弱,即耦合程度降低;在初始光场为压缩真空态的情况下,其结论与初始光场为相干态情况下的结论相似。     

基于模糊综合决策及Shannon熵的关键链缓冲确定方法

为了进一步推广关键链方法在项目管理中的运用,对关键链缓冲的设置问题进行了探讨．通过将模糊综合决策和Shannon熵的结合,综合了“专家”和“一线工人”两方面对项目的评价信息,使得所提的方法更具针对性．采用本方法可以使得关键链缓冲数量设置适当,能够较好地应对项目管理中的不确定性．最后,通过一个算例在MATLAB7．0平台上用正态分布模拟各活动的实际运行情况,说明了此方法的可行性及优越性．     

Norm approximation method for handling traffic count inconsistencies in path flow estimator

Path flow estimator (PFE) is a one-stage network observer proposed to estimate path flows and hence origin–destination (O–D) flows from traffic counts in a transportation network. Although PFE does not require traffic counts to be collected on all network links when inferring unmeasured traffic conditions, it does require all available counts to be reasonably consistent. This requirement is difficult to fulfill in practice due to errors inherited in data collection and processing. The original PFE model handles this issue by relaxing the requirement of perfect replication of traffic counts through the specification of error bounds. This method enhances the flexibility of PFE by allowing the incorporation of local knowledge, regarding the traffic conditions and the nature of traffic data, into the estimation process. However, specifying appropriate error bounds for all observed links in real networks turns out to be a difficult and time-consuming task. In addition, improper specification of the error bounds could lead to a biased estimation of total travel demand in the network. This paper therefore proposes the norm approximation method capable of internally handling inconsistent traffic counts in PFE. Specifically, three norm approximation criteria are adopted to formulate three L_p-PFE models for estimating consistent path flows and O–D flows that simultaneously minimize the deviation between the estimated and observed link volumes. A partial linearization algorithm embedded with an iterative balancing scheme and a column generation procedure is developed to solve the three L_p-PFE models. In addition, the proposed L_p-PFE models are illustrated with numerical examples and the characteristics of solutions obtained by these models are discussed.