上海口岸汽车物流的现状调研和分析

汽车工业已经成为上海工业的龙头产业。整个汽车产业面临的发展机遇,同样为汽车物流和汽车滚装码头装卸及其延伸业务开展的企业带来了良好的发展机遇。本文对上海口岸汽车物流的现状进行调研和分析,并提出物流发展对策。     

基础设施资产证券化的定价方法

初步研究了基础设施资产证券化中的四种定价策略静态现金流量报酬率法、静态利差法、总回报率情景分析法和期权调整利差法。在此基础上指出每种定价方法的适应性及其不足,为今后完善基础设施定价提供理论支撑。城市轨道交通项目因其具有稳定的预期收入,是较适合证券化的基础设施资产之一,可采用上述方法计算其证券化价格和报酬,但需在实践中比较,选定合适的方法。     

折现现金流量法在物流企业并购中的运用

我国物流企业普遍存在条块分割、零散、重复等现象,物流企业的并购很有必要。本文对折现现金流量法在物流企业的并购中的应用作了分析。     

An optimization model of energy and transportation systems: Assessing the high-speed rail impacts in the United States

This paper presents a long-term investment planning model that co-optimizes infrastructure investments and operations across transportation and electric infrastructure systems for meeting the energy and transportation needs in the United States. The developed passenger transportation model is integrated within the modeling framework of a National Long-term Energy and Transportation Planning (NETPLAN) software, and the model is applied to investigate the impact of high-speed rail (HSR) investments on interstate passenger transportation portfolio, fuel and electricity consumption, and 40-year cost and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. The results show that there are feasible scenarios under which significant HSR penetration can be achieved, leading to reasonable decrease in national long-term CO₂ emissions and costs. At higher HSR penetration of approximately 30% relative to no HSR in the portfolio promises a 40-year cost savings of up to $0.63 T, gasoline and jet fuel consumption reduction of up to 34% for interstate passenger trips, CO₂ emissions reduction by about 0.8 billion short tons, and increased resilience against petroleum price shocks. Additionally, sensitivity studies with respect to light-duty vehicle mode share reveal that in order to realize such long-term cost and emission benefits, a change in the passenger mode choice is essential to ensure higher ridership for HSR.     

China’s electric car frustrations

By 2020, the vehicle population in China will likely exceed 280 million—exacerbating national energy security, urban air pollution, and traffic congestion. In response, many local and regional governments in China are pursuing an expanding array of measures to restrain growth in personal vehicle ownership and, along with the central government, reducing emissions and energy use of vehicles. One prominent strategy is the promotion of new energy vehicles, especially plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). Large subsidies were offered—up to $27,600 (171,000 RMB) per vehicle in some regions, including almost $9200 (57,000 RMB) from the central government—which suggests that China is making a major commitment to PEVs. But sales have been meager. In 2013, only 17,600 PEVs, mostly buses and utility trucks, were sold, less than 0.1% of total civilian vehicle sales. Several factors explain the failure of PEV sales to take off: (1) protectionism by local governments; (2) uncertainty over which electric-drive vehicle technologies to promote and what consumers are willing to pay, (3) lagging investments in charging infrastructure, and (4) conservative investment behavior by automakers and battery manufacturers. The central government issued directives to local governments in late 2013 to reduce barriers to out-of-town companies, resulting in modest sales increases in early 2014, but a more coherent, broader, and effective set of policies, incentives, and strategies are needed to overcome consumer and industry resistance and the lack of charging infrastructure.     

基础设施公私合营模式融资影响因素及空间溢出效应研究

在城市层面，影响基础设施PPP(公私合营模式)项目融资额的因素具有多样性。本文基于 2015—2017年我国地级市面板数据，采用空间回归模型对地级市基础设施PPP项目融资额的影 响因素进行实证分析，并验证了PPP项目融资额在空间层面具有溢出效应。研究结果表明：空间 误差模型相比混合OLS回归模型，对于分析PPP项目融资额影响因素的拟合效果更好；PPP项目 融资额在城市层面上具有显著的正向空间溢出效应，即一个城市PPP项目融资额更容易受到相 邻城市PPP项目融资额的影响。地方政府财政缺口、地区生产总值、固定资产投资额、人口密度 对PPP项目融资额虽然都具有显著相关关系，但在不同地区间影响的差异性较大。地方政府财 政缺口在中东部城市与PPP项目融资额呈现显著正相关，即地方政府财政缺口越大，城市越倾向 于采用PPP模式进行基础设施投融资；而在西部城市，两者间这种相关关系则不显著。     

Simplified analysis for estimation of the behavior of a submerged floating tunnel in waves and experimental verification

To achieve rational design in waves for a submerged floating tunnel which has emerged as a new offshore transportation infrastructure, it's necessary to understand its hydrodynamic behavior. For simple but accurate estimation of hydrodynamic forces, a theoretical method is proposed and the tests with physical models in a wave flume were carried out for verification. Morison's equation was used to estimate wave loads composed of inertia force and drag force. Forces calculated by applying the linear wave theory to Morison's equation coincided well with those measured by the tests. The test results showed that mooring systems played a significant role in the movement of the submerged floating tunnel in waves. A pendulum model could be used to describe the motion of the submerged floating tunnel with a single vertical mooring. Based on the verified relations, a simple slack condition which causes the submerged floating tunnel to be unstable was also proposed. The simplified approach proposed by this study proved to be useful in designing the submerged floating tunnel in the initial stage.     

Multi-level condition-based maintenance planning for railway infrastructures – A scenario-based chance-constrained approach

This paper develops a multi-level decision making approach for the optimal planning of maintenance operations of railway infrastructures, which are composed of multiple components divided into basic units for maintenance. Scenario-based chance-constrained Model Predictive Control (MPC) is used at the high level to determine an optimal long-term component-wise intervention plan for a railway infrastructure, and the Time Instant Optimization (TIO) approach is applied to transform the MPC optimization problem with both continuous and integer decision variables into a nonlinear continuous optimization problem. The middle-level problem determines the allocation of time slots for the maintenance interventions suggested at the high level to optimize the trade-off between traffic disruption and the setup cost of maintenance slots. Based on the high-level intervention plan, the low-level problem determines the optimal clustering of the basic units to be treated by a maintenance agent, subject to the time limit imposed by the maintenance slots. The proposed approach is applied to the optimal treatment of squats, with real data from the Eindhoven-Weert line in the Dutch railway network.     

智能网联先导区道路交叉口车路协同系统设计

近年来,车路协同是汽车与交通行业发展的重要方向之一,而车路协同环境建设和推广也成为先导区建设的重中之重。车路协同系统利用无线通信、传感器检测、高精度地图定位、人工智能、计算机等众多技术来获取车辆和道路信息,在实现人、车、路充分协同的同时,从而达到主动提高道路交通安全、最优化利用系统资源、缓解交通拥挤的目标,形成安全、效率、环保的道路交通系统。先导区一般选址在车流量大、道路环境复杂、附近居住人口密集的区域。先导区内汽车智能与网联化测试、V2X场景实现均需要借助于车路协同系统环境。本文介绍了先导区道路交叉口车路协同系统涵盖的技术,以及实现的功能和信息服务场景,并从车端、路端给出了相应场景的解决方案。     

Effect of transportation infrastructure on economic growth in India: The VECM approach

This paper examines the effect of transportation (road and rail) infrastructure on economic growth in India over the period 1970–2010. Using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the paper finds bidirectional causality between road transportation and economic growth. It also finds bidirectional causality between road transportation and capital formation, bidirectional causality between gross domestic capital formation and economic growth, unidirectional causality from rail transportation to economic growth and unidirectional causality from rail transportation to gross capital formation. The paper suggests that expansion of transport infrastructure (both road and rail) along with gross capital formation will lead to substantial growth of the Indian economy. Therefore, within its stated scope, this study suggests that a suitable transport policy should be retained to boost transportation infrastructure and hence sustainable economic growth in India.