中国汽车发动机行业存在产业不安全因素及政策建议

汽车发动机是汽车的“心脏”，但目前中国并未掌握汽车发动机的核心技术，关键零部件大多为外方控制。外方独资、控股趋势明显，中国汽车发动机行业存在着诸多的产业不安全因素。文章分析了汽车发动机产业的不安全因素，并针对各种不安全因素，提出了一些政策建议，包括：鼓励自主研发；加大人才引进与培养；兼并重纽，做大做强；鼓励产品出口；防止外资并购排头兵企业等。     

Agent-based model of maritime traffic in piracy-affected waters

Contemporary maritime piracy presents a significant threat to global shipping industry, with annual costs estimated at up to US$7bn. To counter the threat, policymakers, shipping operators and navy commanders need new data-driven decision-support tools that will allow them to plan and execute counter-piracy operations most effectively. So far, the provision of such tools has been limited. In cooperation with maritime domain stakeholders, we have therefore developed AgentC, a data-driven agent-based simulation model of maritime traffic that explicitly models pirate activity and piracy countermeasures. Modeling the behavior and interactions of thousands of individually simulated vessels, the model is capable of capturing the complex dynamics of the maritime transportation system threatened by maritime piracy and allows assessing the potential of a range of piracy countermeasures. We demonstrate the what-if analysis capabilities of the model on a real-world case study of designing a new transit corridor system in the Indian Ocean. The simulation results reveal that the positive past experience with the transit corridor in the narrow Gulf of Aden does not directly translate to the vast and open waters of the Indian Ocean and that additional factors have to be considered when designing corridor systems. The agent-based simulation development and calibration process used for building the presented model is general and can be used for developing simulation models of other maritime transportation phenomena.     

宇龙仿真系统在数控教学及技能鉴定中的应用

阐述了数控加工仿真系统软件在教学和鉴定中的应用方法,并针对数控教学应用中存在的问题,提出了应对措施。     

AN APPROACH TO THE ECONOMIC APPRAISAL OF AVCS MAGLEV

The purpose of an economic appraisal of a transportation project is to help select an efficient transportation investment plan. Here, efficiency means achieving the best transportation service from a given investment and the generation of net benefits at least as great as the costs of the investment. In this article, three future transportation investment alternatives in the USA are compared using the benefit-cost ratio method to illustrate the economic desirability of the AVCS Maglev alternative – an advanced vehicle control system based on magnetic levitation and propulsion. For the completeness of the economic appraisal and the provision of a guide to performing non-user benefit analysis for this promising ITS technology, the socioeconomic effects of implementing AVCS Maglev in the USA are evaluated based on the US National Development Model (NDM).     

The First Step for the Environmental Management of Australian Beaches: Establishing an Effective Policy Framework

Beach management and coastal management are interwoven and scale-dependent activities in Australia. Present coastal policies are broad and designed for large, national, and statewide scales. They specify ecologically sustainable development as the overarching goal for coastal management and provide the context for beach management. On smaller scales, an approach focusing on the reduction of geomorphic hazards as the basis of beach management was established by the Coastline Hazard Policy, with nonhazard aspects of beach management such as ecological, economic, and social concerns assuming secondary importance. Although beach management can occur effectively under these coastal management arrangements, better guidance is required to make this process as effective and efficient as possible. This guidance - the policy framework - could be better developed for beach management and better integrated with existing coastal management arrangements. While this policy development is not strictly necessary to achieve positive outcomes from beach management, it is necessary to effectively guide implementation of the existing broad coastal policies. Effective goals for beach management are yet to be thought out and clearly articulated in Australia. A good start would be to couple the present goals of ecologically sustainable development and hazards reduction into a coherent goal for beach management. A specific policy for beaches should be developed given the importance of beaches in Australia.     

The reciprocal relationship between policy debate and media coverage: The case of road pricing policy in the Netherlands

This study examined the changes in the media coverage of two road pricing schemes proposed in the Netherlands in the period 1998–2010, as well as the link between the media coverage and the policy debate. Both pricing proposals were debated for several years and neither was introduced. Our findings show that space allocation for type of overall tone (e.g. negative or positive towards a pricing proposal) and the range of issues and policy actors in the media coverage were very different for the two proposals, and for each proposal fluctuated greatly over time. Our analysis suggests that such a variation in the media coverage was a reflection of changes in the content of the policy debate (e.g. caused by the specific design features of pricing proposal under discussion, the different policy actors engaged in the debate and their messages about the proposal). This indicates that policymakers can influence the media coverage of road pricing policies to some extent by managing the policy debate. Our findings also show not only that changes in the content of the policy debate were reflected in the media coverage, but also that the media coverage influenced the policy debate: the statements or actions of policy actors received media coverage, which then in turn stimulated the policy debate. However, the influence of media on the policy debate was rather indirect, in that policy actors mostly reacted to the messages from other policy actors reported in the media and to a lesser extent to the media coverage itself.     

Modelling market diffusion of electric vehicles with real world driving data – German market and policy options

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) have the potential to reduce green house gas emissions from the transport sector. However, the limited electric range of PEVs could impede their market introduction. Still some potential users are willing to pay more for PEVs. The combined effect of these and other influencing factors as well as the resulting future market evolution are unclear. Here, we study the market evolution of PEVs in Germany until 2020. Our results reveal a great deal of uncertainty in the market evolution of PEVs due to external conditions and the users’ willingness to pay. We find the future share of PEVs in German passenger car stock to range from 0.4% to almost 3% by 2020. Energy prices have a large impact on PEV market evolution as a 25% increase in fuel prices would double the number of PEVs in stock by 2020 compared to a reference scenario. We find a special depreciation allowance for commercial vehicles and a subsidy of 1000 Euro as the most effective and efficient monetary policy options. The high uncertainty of the market evolution implies that policies to foster market diffusion of PEVs should be dynamically adaptable to react to changing framework conditions.     

A spatial Difference-in-Differences estimator to evaluate the effect of change in public mass transit systems on house prices

Evaluating the impact of public mass transit systems on real-estate values is an important application of the hedonic price model (HPM). Recently, a mathematical transformation of this approach has been proposed to account for the potential omission of latent spatial variables that may overestimate the impact of accessibility to mass transit systems on values. The development of a Difference-in-Differences (DID) estimator, based on the repeat-sales approach, is a move in the right direction. However, such an estimator neglects the possibility that specification of the price equation may follow a spatial autoregressive process with respect to the dependent variable. The objective of this paper is to propose a spatial Difference-in-Differences (SDID) estimator accounting for possible spatial spillover effects. Particular emphasis is placed on the development of a suitable weights matrix accounting for spatial links between observations. Finally, an empirical application of the SDID estimator based on the development of a new commuter rail transit system for the suburban agglomeration of Montréal (Canada) is presented and compared to the usual DID estimator.     

Multi-criteria impacts assessment for ranking highway projects in Northwest Spain

This paper presents a multi-criteria model to rank highway projects by predicting their combined potential impact on regional population, economy, environment, territory and mobility. A detailed study of initial conditions enable the selection of functional units of study and the identification of homogenous units within the region, playing a relevant role into the process. Ranking is based on the achievement of both efficiency and cohesion objectives at a regional level. The model is tested by analyzing the Spanish Transport Infrastructure Master Plan (PEIT) for the non-central area of Northwest Spain. Application of impact assessment shows that the construction of infrastructures has selective effects in the area according to the homogenous groups. Potential development was boosted in one of the zone groups, whereas in others, at best, there was a reduction in their regressive tendency. Finally, the model is a dynamic support tool that could be adapted to several planning policies only when the ranking criterion is well-justified.     

Agent-based modelling for assessing hybrid and electric cars deployment policies in Luxembourg and Lorraine

Electric mobility is often presented as a way to tackle the environmental issues associated with individual mobility, provided that electric vehicles are adopted by drivers on a mass scale. In this paper, we propose an agent-based model (ABM) aiming at modelling the deployment of these vehicles. ABM is particularly indicated when modelling complex systems whose final results are the combination of the interactions between individuals and their environment and when the agents have partial information to take their decisions. We selected Luxembourg and its French neighbouring region, Lorraine, as the case study for our model, to test Luxembourg’s ambitious objective of deploying 40,000 electric vehicles by the year 2020. Model results show that the number of battery powered electric vehicles in Luxembourg (including vehicles from Lorraine’s commuters crossing the border every day) could be between 2000 and 21,000. A high number of commercial vehicles in Luxembourg, as well as an unlikely deployment in the neighbouring Belgium and Germany would therefore be required to meet the deployment objective. However, the deployment of plug-in hybrid vehicles could reach 60,000 cars by the end of 2020. To achieve this number, the deployment of charging points seems to be the more effective policy, along with actions aiming at increasing public awareness and acceptance of electric vehicles. The interest in using the ABM also lies in the identification of the main individuals’ characteristics affecting the deployment of electric vehicles (household size, commuting distances, etc.), which further support the setting of public policies.