Workshop report - Social inclusion

The topic of social inclusion is now maturing in the Thredbo conference series, being viewed as an important consideration in many aspects of land transport, the benefits extending beyond the socially excluded targeted population. The social inclusion workshop included presentations on new empirical evidence on the value of providing those at risk of social exclusion with mobility options, and how this links to improvements in personal wellbeing, often through mediating influences such as social capital. Work was presented on the role of transport services specifically targeted to those at risk of exclusion, particularly taxi services and school bus services, as well as how to modify fare structures to maximise inclusion in an efficient, mature transport system. The value of Universal Design principles to groups both at risk of being excluded as well as the current travelling public, was shown. The workshop affirmed the importance of including these wider benefits of inclusion in cost-benefit evaluations of transport. The issue of how best to move knowledge into strategic and operational policy, and the transferability of both knowledge and policy between different countries and settings, was discussed. This paper concludes with suggestions arising from the workshop in relation to policy and research, as well as recommendations for Thredbo 12.     

Questioning the need for full amortization in PPP contracts for transport Infrastructure

PPP contracts most often have durations of between 20 and 35 years, but in some cases even longer. The main reason for this is the wish of the Public side to minimize its financial contribution, by including in the contract many years of revenue generation by the project to help cover the investment contribution of the private partner. Implicit however is the need to fully amortize the initial investment, which in many countries is even included in the relevant legislation.PPP contracts are normally framed around the delivery of a range of services during the lifetime of the contract, those services requiring the initial construction or recovery of an expensive infrastructure. The specification of the financial clauses of the contract requires the estimation of demand for those services over the period of the contract and this is usually taken as the major incidence of uncertainty in the contract. Indeed, experience shows that demand forecasts often fail substantially, in many cases by more than 20%, mostly by excess, as State side project promoters (and the bidding private partners) tend to be excessively optimistic about the development of such demand.But when we consider the nature of these contracts we should recognize the existence of at least two other very important types of uncertainty: first, the socially desirable scope and specification of the services to be offered as technology and social preferences evolve; and second, the policy guidelines relative to the total quantity and the social distribution of those services, as that quantity may be causing congestion in other parts of the system, or it may become important to (positively or negatively) discriminate some user segments.In both cases, it is almost impossible to foresee at the time of writing the initial contract if, when and in what direction such types of socially beneficial changes in the provision of the services would intervene, but this rigidness may bear a great loss of social welfare in relation to a more adjustable framework. This criticism affects not only PPPs but all kinds of concession contracts with long duration, so it is not the “partnership” element that must be questioned but rather the duration of the contract.An alternative way is relatively straightforward: abandon the assumption that these contracts must provide full amortization of the infrastructure, which allows adoption of contracts with a shorter life, and the use of multiple such contracts over the lifecycle of the infrastructure.The first generation contract would still have to face the full cost of the construction, but the private partner would receive the unamortized part at the end of that contract, to be paid by the State, directly from the public budget if no more private participation is wanted, or indirectly through the acquisition fee for the contract to be paid by the partner to the second life segment. But, crucially, the State recovers the right to re-specify the terms of the service to be provided without the need for any indemnity, and also the uncertainty associated with the evolution of demand in that period will be much smaller, as this will be my then a mature system in operation.This may seem to increase the transaction costs for the State as more contracts (although of a similar type, especially from the second onwards) may have to be negotiated and signed. But if we take into consideration the difficulties of the frequently needed renegotiations of long duration contracts and the conditions of asymmetry of information in which the State normally finds itself in such cases, we will conclude that, besides avoiding the loss of welfare due to the poor fit of the contract after 20 years or so, this solution after all may also reduce the transaction costs associated with negotiations over the duration of the traditional contracts.     

铁路客运专线与城市交通的衔接及站点选址评价方法研究

分析了铁路客运专线与城市交通的衔接体系的组成要素,提出了铁路客运专线与城市交通衔接的具体目标,运用层次分析法建立了铁路客运专线车站选址的评价指标体系和评价模型.     

在役混凝土桥梁可靠度程序设计

借鉴已有大量相关研究成果，基于随机可靠度理论，对抗力概率模型、荷载效应概率模型、功能函数等方面进行系统研究，提出在役混凝土桥梁的可靠度评估方法。采用可视化编程工具Visual Basic6．0编制相应程序以简化复杂的计算过程，并对混凝土碳化模块等4个模块中的相关计算模型作了适用性分析，给出了建议模型。     

MaaS trends and policy-level initiatives in the EU

The concept of mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) was conceived in Finland, and it is characteristically user-oriented. Interest in MaaS has quickly spread across Europe along with the rapid advances in information and communications technology and the internet of things in recent years, as the realization of MaaS is consistent with the policy directions of the EU member states promoting the use of public transport.This paper describes the MaaS concept in EU, the birth of the concept in Finland and its background, and EU-wide policy level initiatives and their characteristics.     

入世以来我国汽车零部件业发展态势分析

入世以来，国内汽车零部件工业在产业基础、外贸格局、整零配套及产业组织方面迅速优化，产业规模迅速提升，结构不断改善；同时，也面临着国际汽车市场产能过剩、技术水平不断提升及政策环境更趋严格等一系列外部因素的严峻考验。文章通过与国内外汽车零部件工业国际间比较，提出了要不断提升汽车零部件企业技术水平、构筑多元化优势、积极开展兼并重组、加快人才队伍建设以及鼓励采购本土汽车零部件的对策建议。     

中国轿车如何走好自主之路(续1)

1中国轿车自主品牌问题的提出轿车工业的发展水平是汽车工业发展水平的主要标志。我国汽车工业经过52年的发展,取得了长足的进步,2005年中国汽车产量已达到570.77万辆,轿车产量已达到393.07万辆。轿车已经成为汽车产业的排头兵,表1列出近10年中国汽车及轿车产销量情况。由表1可     

刍议我国海事司法鉴定制度

文中分析了海事司法鉴定的现状及存在问题,并提出了今后的发展方向,以期对实际工作有所裨益。     

“双碳”目标下城市中心区地下公共空间与轨道交通一体化发展机制与评价方法研究

为探究城市空间集约和土地高效利用背景下城市中心区地下公共空间与轨道交通一体化发展的低碳效应，梳理城市中心区地下公共空间与轨道交通一体化发展在构成要素、开发生命周期等方面的特征，分析一体化策划、规划、设计、建造和运维等发展阶段对促进“双碳”目标实现的作用与意义； 构建基于“双碳”目标的包含城市轨道交通发展、城市发展、一体化的低碳效应、城市中心区发展和城市中心区开发5项准则层指标在内的22项指标的一体化测度指标体系，综合运用层次分析法和模糊综合评价法构建城市中心区地下公共空间与轨道交通一体化发展评价方法体系。以南京新街口中心区2005年、2010年、2014年和2019年4个典〖JP2〗型阶段为例进行评价，结果分别为2.349、3.105、3.588和4.222，对应的一体化发展水平分别为较差、中、良和良。对照南京新街口中心区渐进式一体化发展历程可知，南京新街口中心区地下公共空间与轨道交通一体化发展对促进区域“双碳”目标实现作用显著。     

Determinants of airports’ environmental effects

Aviation is a fast growing sector with increasing environmental concerns linked to aircraft emissions at airports and noise nuisance. This paper investigates the factors affecting the annual environmental effects produced by a national aviation system. The environmental effects are computed using certification data for each aircraft-engine combination. Moreover, we also take into account for the amount of environmental effects that is internalized at the airport, mainly through noise regulation. We study a dataset covering information on Italian airports during the period 1999–2008. We show that a 1% increase in airport’s yearly movements yields a 1.05% increase in environmental effects, a 1% in aircraft size (measured in MTOW) gives rise to a 1.8% increase and a 1% increase in aircraft age generates a 0.69% increase in environmental effects. Similar results but with smaller magnitudes are observed if airport internalization is considered. Our policy implications are that the tariff internalizing the total amount of externality is about euro 180 per flight, while the tariff limiting only pollution is about euro 60 and the one reducing noise is about euro 110. Moreover, our airport examples show that managers should prefer to address additional capacity by increasing frequency rather than aircraft size, since the former strategy is more environmental friendly.