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As intelligent transportation systems (ITS) approach the realm of widespread deployment, there is an increasing need to robustly capture the variability of link travel time in real-time to generate reliable predictions of real-time traffic conditions. This study proposes an adaptive information fusion model to predict the short-term link travel time distribution by iteratively combining past information on link travel time on the current day with the real-time link travel time information available at discrete time points. The past link travel time information is represented as a discrete distribution. The real-time link travel time is represented as a range, and is characterized using information quality in terms of information accuracy and time delay. A nonlinear programming formulation is used to specify the adaptive information fusion model to update the short-term link travel time distribution by focusing on information quality. The model adapts good information by weighing it higher while shielding the effects of bad information by reducing its weight. Numerical experiments suggest that the proposed model adequately represents the short-term link travel time distribution in terms of accuracy and robustness, while ensuring consistency with ambient traffic flow conditions. Further, they illustrate that the mean of a representative short-term travel time distribution is not necessarily a good tracking indicator of the actual (ground truth) time-dependent travel time on that link. Parametric sensitivity analysis illustrates that information accuracy significantly influences the model, and dominates the effects of time delay and the consistency constraint parameter. The proposed information fusion model bridges key methodological gaps in the ITS deployment context related to information fusion and the need for short-term travel time distributions. 相似文献
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为了研究隧道内火灾温度分布规律和烟气运动状态,使交通隧道火灾灾害降到最低,通过全尺寸隧道火灾试验研究了热释放速率为30 MW火源位于偏离横向中心位置一个车道宽度条件下的顶棚射流的烟气温度特征,分析了烟气在各阶段的温度分布以及沿横向和纵向扩散的规律。结果表明:在火源下游一定区域内,偏置火源火灾产生的烟气在沿隧道横向和纵向扩散温度分布均呈非对称形态;烟气继续沿纵向扩散一段距离后,逐渐出现和形成温度分层;偏置火源顶棚射流的温升趋势随时间呈二次多项式关系增长,远壁面烟气沉降高度和温度衰减幅值大于相应中心火源的试验值;与中心火源的相似,火源在下游30 m内的顶棚射流温升随纵向距离的增加符合指数衰减规律,但同时还受到偏置距离的影响;可使用量纲一的偏距与量纲一的纵向距离的函数关系式描述其分布规律。 相似文献
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为了研究内压作用下管道裂纹应力场分布规律,以含有表面裂纹的X80管道为研究对象,对不同形状、不同方向、不同内压、不同尺寸的含裂纹管道进行仿真分析和实验验证。结果表明:裂纹尖端处应力远大于裂纹中心应力。裂纹形状对应力影响作用较小,随着裂纹方向与管道轴向夹角增大,裂纹尖端应力先增大后减小,随着管道内压、裂纹深度、裂纹长度的增大,裂纹尖端处应力随之线性增大。其中,裂纹长度对裂纹尖端应力的影响小于管道内压和裂纹深度。 相似文献
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This paper proposes the adoption of an integrated inventory and transportation system (IITS) to minimize the total costs of inventory and transportation. A non-linear programing is developed by analyzing transportation and inventory costs with one supplier and many retailers in the distribution environment. The paper compares the proposed model with the traditional approach in computing total costs with numerical data. The results indicate that the total costs can be optimized by adopting integrated programing rather than the traditional approach, along with achieving improved customer service levels. In particular, sensitivity analysis is applied to determine the performance of the IITS under various transportation costs, holding costs and shortage costs. It shows that the transportation cost per unit is most sensitive in the proposed model. In this situation, the IITS is more effective for cost saving when set-up cost, holding and shortage costs are high, but is less effective for situations involving high per-unit transportation costs. 相似文献
37.
Hartmut H. Topp 《Transportation》1988,15(4):279-295
West Germany is densely populated, averaging 245 inhabitants/km2, but varying widely between urban agglomerations and rural areas. Transport volume has increased by 40% since 1970, with virtually all growth due to private automobiles. Since 1981 public transit has been suffering from decreasing demand.A 1964 Expert's Report to the German federal government was the stimulus for initiating an effective funding mechanism for new public transit construction. In 1965 Germany's first federated transit authority was founded for the region of Hamburg.Principal among the goals of any cooperative agreement among transit companies are improvements for the passengers and improvement of revenues for the companies. To attain these ends, two distinct forms of transit aggrements have been developed in Germany: transit cooperative (Verkehrsgemeinschaft) and transit federation (Verkehrsverbund). The former is more suitable for smaller to medium-sized towns, while the latter is more suitable for larger cities. The two types are described in this article.German transit federations during the 1970s succeeded in significantly increasing ridership, while during the 1980s patronage has either remained steady or has declined. Yet transit federations showed much better perfomance than did public transit in general. In terms of costs and revenues, no public transit organization in Germany is able to break even; deficits vary between 42% and 55%. The author concludes, however, that hidden subsidies for automobile traffic are far higher, because of environmental damage and the high social cost of traffic accidents. 相似文献
38.
在公路运输枢纽总体规划中,枢纽的选址是重要的一环,也是决定区域公路运输系统的重要因素。结点重要度分析是定量描述区域内各结点间的相对重要程度,从而为规划布局提供依据。将结点重要度理论引入公路运输枢纽布局,根据提出的相关指标应用结点重要度分析对枢纽布局备选点逐步筛选,最终确定最佳站址,从而指导运输枢纽的布局。所阐述的方法在部分公路运输枢纽总体规划中收到了良好的效果。 相似文献
39.
地铁明挖车站有关配筋问题的探讨 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
探讨明挖地铁车站配筋计算的一些问题。提出了在地铁车站配筋设计时应考虑消峰、轴力、腋角、分布筋等设计理念。这些设计理念并非很高深,但若能在地铁设计中得以贯彻,对提高设计质量,降低工程投资却很有益处。 相似文献
40.