降雨量对OD 行程时间可靠性影响分析

为详细研究降雨量对OD行程时间可靠性的影响，基于Uber 出行共享的3 年美国波士顿10 对OD行程时间数据及WeatherUnderground 网站提供的小时历史天气，构建了OD行程时间高斯混合模型(GMM). 模型参数利用EM法进行求解，K 值根据K-S 检验后的P 值 (大于0.500 0)进行确定，模型分位数利用二分法进行求解. 提出一种基于缓冲指数(BI)的新指标——缓冲指数变化率(BIVR)作为定量评估指标. 结果表明：降雨会降低总体OD行程时间可靠性，降低效果随降雨量提高而增强，但增强效果并不明显；尽管可能性较低，但当降雨处于次要影响因素时可能提高可靠性；小雨天气可视为正常天气；雨天可靠性显著低于正常天气，居民在雨天(除小雨外)出行应预留更多时间.     

Path flow estimator for planning applications in small communities

This paper presents an alternative planning framework to model and forecast network traffic for planning applications in small communities, where limited resources debilitate the development and applications of the conventional four-step travel demand forecasting model. The core idea is to use the Path Flow Estimator (PFE) to estimate current and forecast future traffic demand while taking into account of various field and planning data as modeling constraints. Specifically, two versions of PFE are developed: a base year PFE for estimating the current network traffic conditions using field data and planning data, if available, and a future year PFE for predicting future network traffic conditions using forecast planning data and the estimated base year origin–destination trip table as constraints. In the absence of travel survey data, the proposed method uses similar data (traffic counts and land use data) as a four-step model for model development and calibration. Since the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE) trip generation rates and Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) are both utilized in the modeling process, the analysis scope and results are consistent with those of common traffic impact studies and other short-range, localized transportation improvement programs. Solution algorithms are also developed to solve the two PFE models and integrated into a GIS-based software called Visual PFE. For proof of concept, two case studies in northern California are performed to demonstrate how the tool can be used in practice. The first case study is a small community of St. Helena, where the city’s planning department has neither an existing travel demand model nor the budget for developing a full four-step model. The second case study is in the city of Eureka, where there is a four-step model developed for the Humboldt County that can be used for comparison. The results show that the proposed approach is applicable for small communities with limited resources.     

An assessment of the performance of the European long intermodal freight trains (LIFTS)

Intermodal rail/road freight transport has always been considered as a competitive alternative to its road freight counterpart in the European medium- to long-distance corridors (markets). Such consideration has been based on the increasing competitiveness of some innovative rail services and the existing and prospective performance of both modes in terms of the full social – internal or operational and external – costs. The most recent innovation of rail technologies and related services launched by some European railway companies, still at the conceptual level, is the Long Intermodal Freight Train (LIFT). This is supposed to be a block train operating in long-distance corridors (markets) with a substantial and regular freight demand.This paper develops analytical models for assessing the performance of the LIFTs, the already-operating Conventional Intermodal Freight Trains (CIFTs), and their road counterpart as well. The performance consists of the full – internal (private) and external – costs of the door-to-door delivery of loading units – containers, swap-bodies, and semi-trailers. The internal costs embrace the operational costs of the transport (rail and road) and intermodal terminal operators. The external costs include the costs of the impacts of door-to-door delivery of loading units on society and the environment. These negative externalities include noise, air pollution, traffic accidents, and congestion.The models are applied to a simplified version of intermodal and road transport system using inputs from the European freight transport sector. The aims are to compare the full costs of particular modalities in order to investigate the potential of the LIFTs as compared with the CIFTs in improving the internal efficiency of the rail freight sector and its competitiveness with respect to its road counterpart. In addition, the paper attempts to assess some effects on the potential modal shift of EU (European Union) transport policies on internalizing transport externalities.     

高速公路机电设备维护及管理探析

随着我国高速公路工程建设发展,与之相配套的机电设备系统维护和管理要求也在不断提升,因此怎样确保设备的正常运行是重点关注的问题之一。结合工作实践,探究了高速公路机电系统在管理以及维护方面存在的一些问题,对此进行了分析,并提出了高速公路机电系统管理及维护等方面的应对措施,促进提高高速公路管理的水平。     

公路规划环评中公众参与框架的设计与实施评价

论文分析了环境影响评价中公众参与的现状和国内外发展的状况以及目前存在的问题，对公众参与在环境影响评价中应用的意义和作用进行了探讨，根据公路规划的特点和环境影响提出了提高公众参与有效性的原则和实施框架，建立了对公众参与过程进行评价的模糊综合评价方法和变权评价方法。研究结果对规范公路规划环评中的公众参与以及保证公众参与的有效实施具有现实意义。     

舰艇作战系统时统应用初析

保持分布式系统内时间统一是实现以网络为中心的信息化战争的必要前提条件。剖析了紧耦合系统中时间对准的若干实现方案的特点及存在的问题，提出了适应分布式作战系统的模块化、标准化系统对时的实现途径。     

基于定量分析的城市轨道交通与土地利用一体规划研究

随着城市化进程的加快,大都市交通拥堵现象日益严重,规划建设城市轨道交通已经成为许多城市解决交通拥堵、促进经济发展的迫切需求。城市轨道交通建设与城市土地利用是互馈关系,文章介绍3种定量研究方法,在定量分析的基础上,探讨了轨道交通车站、线路和线网的定量一体规划,最后提出轨道交通与土地利用定量一体规划以点、线、面分级考虑的一些建议。     

深圳地区软粘土变形参数研究

根据深圳地区15个软土处理工点的4000多组试验数据,对软土的物理指标和变形指标进行统计分析。结果表明:压缩系数、变形模量和压缩指数的变异系数很大,其算术平均值的误差较大,不宜直接用于工程计算;含水量的变异系数很小,且与压缩参数有良好的相关性,可以较好地推算软土变形参数。因此,建议在实际工程中,如果没有软土的变形实验数据,可以直接根据软土的含水量进行估算;对于有实验数据的情况,将实验得到的变形参数和根据土样含水量估算的变形参数进行比较,剔除与估算参数相差较大的试验数据,将余下的数据取平均作为所需要的变形参数。     

一种三维时域格林函数计算方法

如何高效地计算出三维时域格林函数是线性时域方法能否有效地求解船舶水动力问题的关键.本文在前人工作的基础上,采用了一种半解析的数值求积方法,对三维时域格林函数及其导数作了计算,这种方法十分有效,计算结果令人满意.