全国水运货运量预测的灰色系统模型

介绍灰色控制系统的基本理论，并给出了全国水运货运量预测的GM（1，1）模型，可供水运部门制定规划时参考。     

基于模糊因素的铁路旅客满意度的综合评价

从铁路旅客运输自身特性及旅客满意度评价特性两方面出发,通过分析铁路旅客满意度的影响因素,确定评估旅客满意度的评价指标体系。并采用模糊综合评价方法,建立了铁路旅客满意度模糊综合评价模型,结合铁路旅客问卷调查结果,对目前铁路旅客满意度水平进行了综合评价,从而为提高和改进铁路运输服务质量和服务水平、提高铁路运输的综合竞争力提供参考依据。     

引航员与船长间信息交流方式研究

引航员与船长之间在引航过程中的信息交流是至关重要的,它是达到安全引航的必要手段之一。以前,引航员上驾驶台后利用短暂的车、舵命令来了解船舶性能,与船长交流很少。事实上,他们之间各怀特长,引而不发,这给应急状态时的协同操作带来安全隐患。为使引航工作的安全更有保障,目前上海港引航管理站推出《船长/引航员信息交流卡》突出强调了信息交流在引航工作中的重要性。     

Effects of RE on the Microstructure of Mg-SZn-4Al Magnesium Alloys

The effects of RE on the microstrcture of as-cast Mg-8Zn-4Al magnesium alloys were investigated. The results show that the solidification range of Mg-8Zn-4Al-xRE alloys increases with RE additions. A binary eutectic reaction can arise and produce a new phase （Mg：Al：Zn：RE） and the temperature of phase transformation point of the new phase is 412.85 C. In Mg-8Zn-4Al-1.5RE alloy, a small amount of Mg：Al：Zn：RE phase and ε phases are found besides a（Mg）,φand r phases. Also microstructures of Mg-8Zn-4Al alloys can be refined by addition of 1.5% RE obviously.     

Meta-analysis of public transport demand

The present study uses meta-regression in order to explain the wide variation in elasticity estimates obtained in previous demand studies, and provide summaries of several bus demand elasticities.One important finding as to the price elasticity is that the often cited rule of thumb of −0.3 holds good if quality of service represented by vehicle-kilometres is treated as an exogenous variable, but not when it is treated as endogenous.Based on the results it is recommended that demand models should include car ownership, price of petrol, own price, income and some measure of service among the explanatory variables and that the service variable should be treated as endogenous.In previous meta-studies in this field focus has been on own price elasticity only while this study also includes elasticities with respect to, level of service, income, price of petrol and car ownership. The short run for the US are found to be −0.59, 1.05, −0.62, 0.4 and −1.48 respectively.     

Estimation of value of travel time reliability

In mode choice decision, travelers consider not only travel time but also reliability of its modes. In this paper, reliability was expressed in terms of standard deviation and maximum delay that were measured based on triangular distribution. In order to estimate value of time and value of reliability, the Multinomial and Nested Logit models were used. The analysis results revealed that reliability is an important factor affecting mode choice decisions. Elasticity is used to estimate the impacts of the different policies and system improvements for water transportation mode. Among these policies, decision maker can assess and select the best alternative by doing the benefit and cost analysis based on a new market share, the value of time, and the value of reliability. Finally, a set of promising policies and system improvement of the water transportation were proposed.     

大通道公路项目综合运输分析与应用

随着经济和交通运输的发展,运输结构和路网结构已经或正在发生巨大的变化,使公路建设项目前期工作交通分析变得越来越复杂。结合具体项目提出了大通道公路项目宜采用综合运输分析方法,应用于具体项目将会使交通分析与预测更加准确和合理,对今后类似的大通道项目起到一定的指导作用。     

Managing transportation during highway reconstruction: A recommended process

Major highway reconstruction can cause significant disruptions to existing travel patterns and economic activity. Reducing these impacts on travelers, shippers, businesses and residents requires that innovative and effective transportation management actions be developed and implemented. This paper reports the major findings and recommendations of a research study on managing transportation during highway, reconstruction. The primary objectives of the study were

裂纹损伤对典型船体结构振动频率的影响规律研究

为研究裂纹损伤对典型船体结构振动特性的影响,选择加筋板作为典型船体结构,选择穿透性裂纹作为典型损伤形式。首先利用数值仿真和模型试验对带有裂纹的结构模型固有频率计算方法进行了研究,在此基础上针对边裂纹和中间裂纹2种形式进行了大量的仿真计算,得到模型各阶固有频率、频率变化率随裂纹位置和长度变化的规律。研究结果表明,结构各阶固有频率以及频率变化率对裂纹较为敏感,可以作为裂纹识别的特征参数。同时,试验和仿真计算结果数据也可以为裂纹损伤识别研究提供训练样本和验证样本。     

南昌西站综合交通枢纽环境振动试验分析

现代大型综合交通枢纽综合了多种交通工具,实现了航空、高铁、普铁、轨道交通、公交和磁悬浮列车等多种交通方式的零换乘或短距离换乘。站房结构中包含高架桥梁、隧道和大跨度空间等复杂结构体系。由复杂结构形式而引发的环境振动,往往对人和精密仪器的使用造成极大的伤害。对南昌西站综合交通枢纽环境振动实测分析的结果表明,振动响应满足环境测评标准和舒适度要求。