用改进的前向神经网络预测铁路货运量

对影响铁路货运量的因素进行了分析。根据影响铁路货运量的诸因素的特点，介绍了一种改进的前向神经网络预测方法，并建立了铁路货运量前向神经网络预测模型。算例表明，其预测精度高于常规预测方法。     

交通综合信息平台建设研究

建立一个基于GIS-T的交通综合信息平台。它能够接受、存储和处理多源异构数据．能够为各种应用子系统和公众提供良好的信息服务。同时，对平台的框架设计、功能构成以及平台实现的关键技术进行说明和分析。     

公路交通可持续发展评价指标及评价方法研究

根据公路交通可持续发展评价的内容和特点,从公路交通可持续发展水平、发展能力、发展协调性3个方面建立了评价指标体系;提出了指标属性值和无量纲化的计算方法;应用模糊识别原理,结合AHP权重确定方法,依据公路交通可持续发展目标(级别划分)的实现程度,提出公路交通可持续发展的多级模糊识别综合评价模型;其评价方法和模型,反映了公路交通可持续发展的内涵,对区域公路交通可持续发展评价有借鉴作用。最后,进行了实证研究。     

治理公路超载超限运输的长效机制和对策研究

为建立治理超载超限运输的长效机制,首先建立了运输企业收入的计量模型,分析了企业利润与运输价格、运输成本、超载罚款等变量之间的互动关系及企业获得最大利润的条件。在此基础上,针对中国道路货运市场结构的特点,从理性经济人的角度,对运输企业在“惩罚博弈”下可能的行为选择进行了研究;其次结合美国治理超载超限运输的经验,分析了不同执法强度和执法密度组合的执法策略及其适用条件、执法效果等,对中国治理超载超限运输提出了解决方案和具体的政策建议,对中国治理超载超限运输具有指导意义。     

西部黄土高原区公路交通建设与生态环境保护

根据西部黄土高原区生态环境特征和西部交通建设的特点,提出公路交通建设中面临的主要生态问题,重点对西部交通建设中主要的生态环境问题进行了分析,在此基础上,建议在公路工程建设中应采取的生态环境保护措施。     

公共交通系统营运可靠性研究

优先发展公共交通是大城市解决交通拥堵,实现城市交通可持续发展的一项重要措施,然而,公交营运水平的低下制约着公交的发展。本文借鉴可靠性理论对公共交通营运可靠性进行定义,并对公交营运时间和乘客服务可靠性分别进行了描述,据此建立起公交系统营运可靠性模型,然后采用随机模拟技术(即Monte Carlo模拟)进行求解,通过算例说明模型的可行性,最后通过分析可靠性模型得出大型活动期间改善公交营运的途径。     

Wheel-rail contact models for vehicle system dynamics including multi-point contact

Advanced modelling of rail vehicle dynamics requires realistic solutions of contact problems for wheels and rails that are able to describe contact singularities, encountered for wheels and rails. The basic singularities demonstrate themselves as double and multiple contact patches. The solutions of the contact problems have to be known practically in each step of the numerical integration of the differential equations of the model. The existing fast, approximate methods of solution to achieve this goal have been outlined. One way to do this is to replace a multi-point contact by a set of ellipses. The other methods are based on so-called virtual penetration. They allow calculating the non-elliptical, multiple contact patches and creep forces online, during integration of the model. This allows nearly real-time simulations. The methods are valid and applicable for so-called quasi-Hertzian cases, when the contact conditions do not deviate much from the assumptions of the Hertz theory. It is believed that it is worthwhile to use them in other cases too.     

特种弹药铁路运输可调式定位装置研究

概述了特种弹药铁路运输可调试定位装置的主要功能、技术要求、主要战技术指标，介绍了特种弹药铁路运输采用的从箱体顶部固定方式，并进行了相应的可调式定位装置研究，将装置分为整体固定和单点独立固定两种，用于固定弹箱在敞车内的位置，确保弹体运输安全。     

An analysis of rail freight operational efficiency and mode share in the British port-hinterland container market

The growth in container shipping poses considerable challenges to efforts to reduce the negative externalities associated with freight transport. There are particular concerns about the impacts of the associated port-hinterland freight flows. Through empirical research, this paper examines trends in the operational efficiency of the British port-hinterland container rail freight market and to assess the impacts of any changes on the overall sustainability of this market. Original survey work conducted in 2007 and 2015 has allowed longitudinal and cross-sectional analysis of the characteristics of this market.The survey findings reveal that rail’s mode share of port container throughput (in TEU) has increased from 14.7% in 2007 to 16.6% in 2015 and it is likely that its share of the associated hinterland activity has also risen. Rail was carrying 25% more TEU by 2015 without an increase in train service provision. Increases in mean train capacity and mean load factor were observed, leading to growth in the mean train load from 44 TEU in 2007 to 55 TEU in 2015. This considerable improvement in operational efficiency is expected to have reduced the negative externalities per unit of transport activity associated with the rail-borne hinterland container flows, though scope is identified for further improvements in sustainability.     

基于家庭属性差异的大学生出行方式选择行为研究

为剖析家庭属性差异对大学生出行方式选择行为的影响，基于非集计理论，构建家庭属性差异的大学生出行选择多元Logit 模型. 根据四川省2 571 份大学生出行行为调查问卷，运用SPSS 软件标定模型参数，获取影响大学生出行选择的主要家庭属性因素，并进行敏感性分析. 结果表明：家庭平均年收入、经济净流对大学生出行方式选择有显著的影响；以航空运输为参考，家庭平均年收入、经济净流对公路运输方式选择的影响大于铁路运输；“祖辈替孙辈购买机票”的折扣票务形式可提高大学生选择航空出行的概率.